Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[3rd eye] 03/12/2018 12:04

DD its all here and from YOUR source Digital Look....... go to the page below in the link.

hxxps://uk.webfg.com/equity/FEVERTREE_DRINKS/financials/consensus-forecast

Current week ago month ago 3 months ago 6 months ago 1 year ago

Revenue (£m)

31-Dec-18 224.25 223.58 n/a 227.32 206.88 185.57

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Like I said earlier in the thread Sunday my broker sources dont match up with those you have used in Digital Look .

AND in fact it looks like you are placing all your bets on a semi good summer, ie one month in August where FEVR have gone from 78% sales growth in August to 31.85% oct/nov.

These figures which are out in the public domain show growth is tailing off at a rate of knots. FEVR had better hope growth does take hold in the US.

cheers mick

[sogoesit] 03/12/2018 11:34

Yes, this is a behavioural/psychological issue, Villa.
It's why you see mutually good Sale & Purchase Agreements always leave some upside for the seller post the agreement date.

The same applies on the way in, imv.
Even if you think a share is the best to buy always average in upto your limit as short term "noise" makes pricing highly unpredictable and you never know whether you can get a better deal.

The oil price is a good example. A lot of folks have been selling-out of oil company shares in the last few months... then, whaddya know, the price turns on a sixpence!

[villarich] 03/12/2018 10:55

I've been reading Hedge Funds Wizards by Jack D Schwager. The last chapter was a guy (can't remember his name) who ran a hedge fund focused on Eastern Europe. He talked about how even though some investments might be down 30 / 40% in bear markets, he would take some chips off the table but he never fully sold out unless there was something fundamentally wrong with the company. The theory was if he was totally out, he was u likely to get back in and would miss the turn back up. This has really resonated with me.

[sogoesit] 03/12/2018 10:17

Indeed, Villa, but it shows the leverage (beta) available in underlying markets.

Good for bargain hunters if you're in that frame of mind!

[christh] 03/12/2018 09:41

Fevertree Calendar Sold Out!!!

Fever Tree Gin & Tonic Advent Calendar

[christh] 03/12/2018 09:34

Fevertree Calendar Sold Out!!!

Fever Tree Gin & Tonic Advent Calendar

[christh] 03/12/2018 09:28

Fevertree Bulls Return to Soothe Concerns Over Silent November
By Lisa Pham
30 November 2018, 10:04 GMT

After a rough few months for Fevertree Drinks Plc, bullish analysts haven’t lost the faith.

Morgan Stanley and Jefferies both published positive notes on Friday, shrugging aside the absence of a customary November guidance upgrade that led the U.K. premium tonic maker’s shares to erase gains for the year.

Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Felton said there’s “still plenty of scope” for results to beat estimates, calling the recent share-price tumble an attractive entry point. Market rules suggest that Fevertree would likely only need to issue a trading statement if it expected revenue to be at least 10%t different to the current consensus estimate of 223 million pounds ($285 million), he wrote.

Jefferies’ Ed Mundy suggested that Fevertree’s U.K. sales could rise 40% to 50% in the second half of 2018, citing monthly data from Nielsen that showed growth slowing. The company’s tone remains confident and a normalization of growth “was always expected,” Mundy wrote in a note.

Also helping sentiment was a new buy rating by Numis Securities analyst Damian McNeela earlier this week. Even though McNeela’s price target of 3,450 pence is the lowest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, it’s still more than 40% higher than the current share price. Numis was appointed Fevertree’s nominated advisor and joint broker last month.

Fevertree shares rose as much as 4.1% in London on Friday, gaining for a second day. Its 14-day relative-strength index has fallen below 30 several times in recent weeks, a level that technical analysts say frequently precedes a rebound.

[villarich] 03/12/2018 08:52

At high tide, all boats rise. Everything is heavily up today

[stevedaytrader] 03/12/2018 08:35

Thanks trump- USA and China trade unchanged for 90 days and ftse etc incl fever react well

[christh] 03/12/2018 08:24

The Xmas rally started.
It will end up around £30 by Xmas.

The festive season has started with the parties and the G+T much in favour.

But also the drinking in the US with Tequila and Tonic

[discodave4] 03/12/2018 07:47

3rdRev last year £170m, rev forecast this year £224m, that's nearly 32% growth, that's what I posted.

[3rd eye] 03/12/2018 02:08

hmmmmmmm, so lets see the figs from Digital Look.

hxxps://uk.webfg.com/equity/FEVERTREE_DRINKS/financials/consensus-forecast

Here we are........

Forecast

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Growth Div Yield

31-Dec-18 224.25 69.15 48.66p 49.2 2.1 23% 13.04p 0.5%
31-Dec-19 266.06 80.07 56.11p 42.8 2.8 15% 15.63p 0.7%


Current week ago month ago 3 months ago 6 months ago 1 year ago

Revenue (£m)
31-Dec-18 224.25 223.58 n/a 227.32 206.88 185.57

So consensus figures are 224.25 V actuals of 185.57 1 year ago, an increase of just 20.84% and nothing like your figure above.

Whats more in 2017 the figures were as below.........

Its trading update for the year ended 31 December 2017.

The Company has delivered another period of very strong growth with full year revenue expected to be circa £169 million, reflecting growth of 66% on 2016

So we have in effect if the brokers forecasts are anywhere near correct looking at a tail of in growth from 66% to 20.84%......... a huge fall off.

But 20.84% is very good in itself.

Its just how the market looks upon it come next trading update.

cheers mick..............ohhhhhhhh i say just look at all that stock that as piled up. yum yum.

[rob762243] 02/12/2018 22:47

Yeah could someone answer this?

[3rd eye] 02/12/2018 22:24

Hi DD you said,

DiscoDave42 Dec '18 - 17:10 - 4360 of 4362

"3rd
Think you need to research more. Forecasts are for annualised rev growth of 32%. The reason for the exceptional increase in August should be self evident really given the nature of the business!."

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So thats growth falling away then.

What source are you getting your annualised rev growth of 32% from please?.

It certainly doesnt tie in with my sources, and ,lets not forget prior to August revenues from June to the July update disappointed hence the build up of inventory.

cheers mick

[minnow me] 02/12/2018 22:18

hi gents, new here and a little confused, why does it say the share price is 2899 above?

[christh] 02/12/2018 20:47

wonderful Long, £43 in January.
Jefferies and Morgan Stanley tip fevertree as a "BUY"

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/210309/blue-chip-analysts-tell-investors-to-plough-into-fevertree-after-recent-sell-off-210309.html


Morgan Stanley and Jefferies both issued “buy” recommendations, suggesting that the company’s share price weakness represented a good opportunity.

[kiwimonk] 02/12/2018 17:58

wonderful short

[discodave4] 02/12/2018 17:10

3rdThink you need to research more. Forecasts are for annualised rev growth of 32%. The reason for the exceptional increase in August should be self evident really given the nature of the business!.

[3rd eye] 02/12/2018 12:56

Lets get this right........so FEVR have gone from 78% sales growth in August to 31.8% sales growth in the 4 weeks to early November. AND down from 37% sales growth reported in September and October.

AND THATS SUPPOSED TO BE BULLISH IS IT. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well I know we are in volatile and some times strange markets at the moment but 99% of the time with figures like the above the stock should fall away on monday.

[yf23_1] 02/12/2018 12:30

Its still spikey on the candles, needs to break £25 for an attempt at an up-wave, IMO.