Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[villarich] 12/12/2018 17:41

So if you think my estimates of EPS are very low then give your mates at the Brokers a ring and take it up with them.

[villarich] 12/12/2018 17:39

The EPS figures you're using make absolutely no sense I'm afraid. Maybe by 2022 but certainly not for FY2018. They are completely detached from what the brokers are saying so I think you're going to be very disappointed.I suspect you've just made them up.

[villarich] 12/12/2018 17:37

If EPS comes in at 60 or 70 pence it will be a Christmas miracle. To hit even 60p they would have to beat the revised 'ahead' expectations by another 20%. If that were the case we would have definitely had an update in November saying they were ahead of July.The 49.2p is the consensus from the BROKERS! You know the brokers who you think are never wrong?! So if you're disputing the consensus estimate I used then you're going against everything you've said previously about the brokers.

[christh] 12/12/2018 17:18

I do dispute that big time.

your estimates are very low.

what if the EPS comes at 60p or 70p just in the UK alone?
The figure is your assumed figure that you expect not what the ceo has said"the results will be comfortably ahead of expectations" hence a higher EPS than yours.

Should the US (likely) grow more than the 15% which contributed last year and say
to 25%-30% then an EPS of 65p will be fair.
And taking into account a further success in the US with projected sales to 40% for 2019 will move the EPS to 75p

Also we have not had an update on the China/India campaign and also our Europe growth.

Besides Fevertree has always create new products and has gone into partnerships like Pernord for Tequila.

What you must accept is that fevertree like its name is a very efficient,progressive,healthy,robust, and well run focussed business.

It will never run out of ideas to generate cash!...and it has proven that year upon year.

That is why I trumpet the brokers' target price of £42.50
Because the brokers have seen the strategies the company is using and also the target figures the company is aiming to achieve.

And then again Unilever or Pepsico or Pernord or Diageo will move for a takeover and become an asset for them.
It will increase their revenues substantially but who knows!
Anything is possible, nothing is unthinkable.

This my way of thinking for this gem.
No swearing, no foul language in your comments, hopefully!

[villarich] 12/12/2018 16:23

Typo - I'm erring on the side of caution...

[villarich] 12/12/2018 16:21

Yes I have I think we're looking at slightly more than the predicted 49.2p EPS. But I don't think it will be much more because of a margin squeeze following the move into the US.So to make it easy I'm going for an EPS of 50p. I don't think the market will want to pay much more than 50x earnings following results because I believe the volatility we've seen since September isn't going to go away overnight. It also depends on how much US growth nets off the slowdown in U.K. growth. If US doesn't pick up the slack then the market may not want to pay that high a multiple.So I have three scenarios.1. US growth / update isn't what the market expects and multiple drops to 45x. That gives us a price of £22.50.2. US growth is OK. Market willing to pay 50x. That gives us an share price of £25.3. US growth good and above expectations. Market willing to pay 55x. That gives us an share price of £27.50.Given there was no update in November building on the summer update then I am wrong on the side of caution so think options 1 or 2 are most likely. We know what's happening with U.K. growth and the fact it's slowing. The unknown is the US and until we get our first meaningful update, I can't say what I think the price and multiple will be beyond this year's financials. Is that enough thought for you? Feel free to share your figures...

[christh] 12/12/2018 15:45

have you got any figures your self?

have you done your own research?

According to my own research I have given you what the market should move the prices to.

if you have a different opinion, well done to you, that's your prerogative.

[villarich] 12/12/2018 14:47

Given the research you've done, what do you expect the figures to be?

[christh] 12/12/2018 14:45

This is heading to £25 and beginning of January will get to £28-£30

As I posted before the festive season is the strongest period for retailers,Beverage and textile manufacturers.

I expect the figures will be very strong as the company has fully use the opportunity
to sell nationwide all its products including seasonal stuff e.g. christmas crackers,
Advent calendar and other things.

This is off course my own opinion based on my own research

So you make your mind by doing your own research.

[villarich] 12/12/2018 14:30

Yes I stated a fact that the last time it broke £24 it fell to £22. What's your point? You're guessing that if it breaks £23 it will go to £25 but that is a guess and not based on any actual analysis. Like most of your guesses you're wrong 90% of the time. Not something to brag about. You lord about on here like you're the one who knows everything about the business when actually you know very little.

[christh] 12/12/2018 14:01

Villarich 11 Dec '18 - 15:38 - 4596 of 4613
“if it breaks through £23 then we are on the way to £25”

Based on what??? It broke £24 then it dropped to £22.

did you say something?

[villarich] 12/12/2018 11:25

I think the 49.2p for this year takes into account the fact they're already trading ahead. But yeah broadly agree with your calcs.

[5chipper] 12/12/2018 11:12

So, if ahead for this year then they trade on a p/e of 40ish

If this year comes in at 55p and they can grow the figure by 35% over next two years then p/e for fy20 will drop to 23

[villarich] 12/12/2018 11:02

Consensus is 49.2p for FY18 and 58.2 for FY19 and 68.5p for FY20

[5chipper] 12/12/2018 10:40

What are the eps broker forecasts for fy 18?

[traderglt] 12/12/2018 10:21

Excellent post Dev

[christh] 12/12/2018 07:55

And someone bought 142,327 shares at £22.69 at 6.31am this morning

So looks aiming higher today.

[wetdream] 11/12/2018 22:40

Someone apparently sells £7.3m and it doesn't get a mention here.
Amazing!

[devalpha] 11/12/2018 19:36

Every time I have a look at this board I don't know whether to laugh or cry!I know you guys are all obsessed with the short term share price and I get that if you have a big position here then it's difficult emotionally to handle a sudden 40-50% drop. Let me give you a different perspective from someone who can look at this rationally without emotion:What do we know?1) The price at £40 got way ahead of itself based on the current numbers. 2) The half year report said the full year numbers would comfortably beat expectations. To put a statement out to the market like that with 6 months trading still ahead, as they have done before, is remarkable. Rolls and the Chairman are older experienced heads. They would never sanction a release like this unless almost certain to deliver.3) Since the last update, the SGWS distribution deal has kicked in, not only doubling the potential presence in US states but also more importantly bringing fever-tree into partnership with the biggest spirits producers who all use SGWS their primary US distributor. Joint collaboration through 29 US states may not show significant results initially, but sets them up well for 2019 and beyond.4) Setting up in the US and the associated increased headcount will increase costs short term but sales/marketing is essential to grow longer term.5) Growth in the UK will inevitably slow down, but the brand is firmly entrenched in most bars, restaurants and supermarkets which provides a solid base from which to build US and global growth.If you've been in this share for several years and have taken the time to research and understand the business and the potential for the long mixed drink growth within the total beverage alcohol market, then sudden short term price drops shouldn't phase you, assuming you're a business focused holder. It wouldn't phase me if this dropped to £15 prior to Jan 31st, as it would give an opportunity to add more.I may be wrong, but I think the potential is significantly underestimated here, particularly in relation to the potential of the collaborations. Jan 31st will be interesting for long term holders.

[llama1978] 11/12/2018 19:07

Nobody has any idea on this chat. That became clear to me weeks ago, but it’s still mildly amusing. And I need cheering up right now. All the people who talk nerdily about trends in the data and resistance points have never been right in any sensible timescale. My guess is that as soon as there is brexit clarity, a lot of AIM stocks will jump up 10-20% and then more than any trend will ever help the results will come out in January and if they show decent progression in the US and not a decline in sales in more established markets they’ll go up another 20% so I’m sticking at it... only a matter of weeks now. If that all goes wrong I’m going back to investing in lottery tickets.

[traderglt] 11/12/2018 17:16

His point is is that you have no bloody idea !

[villarich] 11/12/2018 16:49

I didn't see trader's post when I wrote mine but it seems we agree. Not sure what your point is? Buffet or Slater wouldn't buy Fever Tree, it's on too high a multiple. Again what's your point? The books I've read generally say go with the trend. This is trending down. Again, what's your point. I don't know why the price is up today. Possibly because the market makers have marked the price up. I'm just stating a fact that the ADVFN volume data suggests more shares have been sold than bought. You said buyers were back. Again, what's your point?

[christh] 11/12/2018 16:30

Villarich 11 Dec '18 - 16:20 - 4599 of 4601
And the ADVFN volume data suggests more shares have been sold today than bought.

explain it to us why is it up then?

[christh] 11/12/2018 16:23

or Slater "when you see the directors Buy then you BUY too"

[christh] 11/12/2018 16:22

you copying other peoples comments now?
TraderGLT 11 Dec '18 - 15:12 - 4594 of 4598
Lower lows lower highs

what are your books say?

i.e. Buffett "on quality stocks"?