Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[discodave4] 27/7/2018 20:03

Diageo Double digit growth for gin:HTTP://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-5994555/Britains-booming-thirst-gin-helps-Diageo-boost-profits-vodka-falls-fashion.htmlBit of a disappointing end to the week following the excellent results.DD

[wetdream] 27/7/2018 12:42

Looks like we have buyers sub-£36.

[villarich] 26/7/2018 12:58

So we've slipped back under the previous ATH before trading update. Bit annoying but hopefully we can revisit those highs

[villarich] 26/7/2018 06:58

Your comparison doesn't work for me. BVC and the others are stalwart companies where you'd be lucky to get 5% EPS growth. FEVR is still in high growth mode and way beyond that. For shares like this I don't see any point in comparing mcap and PE's to others. I prefer to look at PEG, EPS growth and what the multiple the market wants to pay in various scenarios.

[discodave4] 25/7/2018 22:34

TopvestThe three you quoted have eps growth of 2%-5% max over the next couple of years (going on forecasts).

[panic investor] 25/7/2018 21:14

I think that's where Dominic will fit in DYOR

[topvest] 25/7/2018 21:07

All 4 are quality companies and are growing. The 3 I quoted are growing at 5-10% per annum over the medium term. Just pointing out the huge valuation anomaly. For Fevertree to grow into its valuation it needs to move profits from £50m to £200m in fairly short order.

[discodave4] 25/7/2018 19:46

topvestNichols and Britvic have negative earnings growth and AGB only 5% (going on the financial data on here). FEVR has possible 33% eps growth.You pays your money and takes your choice!.DD

[topvest] 25/7/2018 18:53

Interesting fact. Despite having 1/10th of the sales, it has a market cap higher than the combined value of A.G. Barr, Britvic (EV with debt added back) and Nichols. Hmmm!

[topvest] 25/7/2018 17:40

Well done for those that spotted the potential. Maybe more to come, but a valuation of £4bn for this looks a bit ridiculous. It might be a great business, but is the valuation losing touch with reality? Has anyone worked out how big the market actually is for tonic water and lemonade! It’s not Coca-Cola.

[sogoesit] 25/7/2018 17:40

I think the "speculation" in this share has now turned away from the (now slowing) rate-of-growth in the UK market and has moved on to the US market. So, in this sense, I think the Argonaut should get into another boat or get fleeced, if you pardon the allusions ;-).

The US market has been high risk to UK retailers (Tesco to name but one) and, certainly, I have viewed the targeting of this market by FEVR as high risk and am yet to be persuaded. But equally, if they crack the market there, the upside is probably ten-fold the risk imv. To me that risk/reward ratio is worthwhile to stay invested but always watchful.

There may be a herd effect, the key to making money in the dot-com bubble, and there is certainly a risk that the herd attempts to leave all at once. However, the exit case may also have an upside and that is that the company still gets sold to the likes of a JAB (recently on the acquisition trail of Dr Pepper) or similar. This is the risk/reward for exit. For a PI the risk is getting out but, if you take a loss of 30%-40% after a gain of 600% to 1,000%, will that worry you?

If these risks worry you and you don't catch enough sleep at night take some advice from Jesse Livermore:

“I can’t sleep” answered the nervous one.
“Why not?” asked the friend.
“I am carrying so much cotton that I can’t sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?”
“Sell down to the sleeping point”, answered the friend.

[sogoesit] 25/7/2018 16:56

Lol! As Jesse Livermore said "If it goes up, I buy more!"
Good momentum there.

Starting to buy-back into FEVR again after the blow-off... dripping back into ISAs as is my habit and I can never be bothered with the 30-day rule ;-)
I think £36'ish is now reasonable on a 1 year view to £42.

[villarich] 25/7/2018 15:54

I bought some more at 2pm for 18.37. I feel like a genius!! (For once)

[cottlet] 25/7/2018 15:14

Bur is brill.............well run very successful

[panic investor] 25/7/2018 13:06

Or ACSO :-)

[villarich] 25/7/2018 13:05

Thanks DD. Pure luck buying yesterday. There have been many occasions where that approach has failed. I remember getting burned by SGP pre results back in 2009.I've been lurking ok the BUR board today and it does look a good set. I am hoping to do some proper research on the co tonight so I can be more informed.

[panic investor] 25/7/2018 13:05

He's not turned up on NMC yet :-)

[discodave4] 25/7/2018 13:01

Hi Villa,Think you can have a few pints today on the back of BUR.My only concern is your troll will follow you!........it's a decent thread with some very knowledgeable pi's on it, the last thing we need is christh.Tbh I've given up on trying to forecast BUR's earnings now, they always exceed significantly, brokers can't figure them out either, so am just sitting back and letting compounding do it's thing!.Their RNS on 11th July was a peach - couldn't understand a chuffing word!. Luckily there are posters that do!.Sorry for OT.DD

[martywidget] 25/7/2018 12:58

To any Schweppes [1783] drinkers:

Important safety notice: Schweppes 1783 600ml tonic waters
11 Jul 2018

[villarich] 25/7/2018 12:44

Barry Norris seems to be unaware that while UK growth may (will) slow eventually, it could easily be replaced by US growth

[martywidget] 25/7/2018 12:35

...Argonaut Absolute Return manager Barry Norris will meanwhile be relieved he closed the 'short' position on the shares he took out earlier this year.

The fund manager revealed in April he was betting against the shares, saying they could halve in value if his prediction of a dramatic slowdown in sales growth was borne out.

Norris later closed the position at around the same level he put it on, but remains sceptical on the company's continued progress.

'We think it’s a question of timing the slowdown in the UK business,' he said.

'Put simply, pretty much all of the growth continues to come from the UK where they now have a very high market share in an overall tonic market which is at best growing at 5%. We are close to saturation point,' he added.

'Therefore it is a question of when not if the UK slows down and perhaps turns negative. When and if that happens you do not want to own this share.'

[martywidget] 25/7/2018 12:27

I'd like to know the exit plan of these chaps:


...The Independent investment trust has the highest weighting to the shares of any fund, with manager Max Ward (pictured) holding 10.7% of his portfolio in the stock...

Nick Williamson holds 5.6% of his £432 million Old Mutual UK Smaller Companies Focus fund in the shares, while Citywire AAA-rated colleague Dan Nickols has a 4.5% stake in his £1.4 billion Old Mutual UK Smaller Companies fund.

River and Mercantile's Dan Hanbury holds 3.9% of his £643 million UK Equity Smaller Companies fund in the stock, while Citywire AAA-rated Harry Nimmo is another backer. He holds 3.6% of his £1.6 billion Standard Life Investments UK Smaller Companies fund in the shares, as well as 4.2% of his £368 million Standard Life UK Smaller Companies investment trust...

Small cap managers toast Fever-Tree as shares soar
Mixer drinks maker repeats trick of beating forecasts, saying full-year results likely to be 'comfortably ahead' of expectations.

[discodave4] 25/7/2018 12:24

123TrevThink most are aware of the rating here and the risks (not having a pop), that said it's been the same rhetoric now for 4 years and besides 62 (ish) eps would give a PEG less than 1.DD

[villarich] 25/7/2018 12:08

Thanks but I'm not worried about that. I have worked on my psychological approach to investing and trading and believe it is on point. The exit plan that I will 100% stick to will ensure I won't get caught out. I started top slicing yesterday in the first 15 mins of trading. I have no reason (currently) to sell any more.