Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[123trev] 25/7/2018 12:04

Just remember this,this M/C is so high when the selling really starts it will catch you by surprise at a psychological level that you may not cope with that’s not me in anyway trying to make you look foolish that’s me telling you that’s what happens because the people taking your cash are so sophisticated at doing it now they no your emotional state better than you do and looking at yesterday for me that was it but GL.

[villarich] 25/7/2018 11:51

Thanks Sogo. Rather late to the BUR party but hoping to pick up some profit in the medium term. Good start so far and may even top up. I've followed your advice and started with an initial stake. Although wishing I went balls deep yesterday!!

[villarich] 25/7/2018 11:49

I completely get what you're saying. The key for me though is having a plan and sticking to it. I'm not of the view that I'll hold FEVR forever. I'll hold it until it completes the transition from high growth to stalwart. Once the days of double digit growth is gone, and the chart breaks down, I'll be taking my cash and looking elsewhere. Something I've done numerous times over the last decade. The good thing about FEVR over some tech stocks is the tangible nature of the business and high margins. It's also a niche and rapidly building an economic moat based on brand and market penetration that the likes of Schweppes and Britvic cannot stop, despite their best efforts. All these things justify the current PE and growth rates. But I have my get out plan ready to go as soon as things turn sour.

[123trev] 25/7/2018 11:25

None taken these are views only and not in anyway personal we all make are own choices and I suspect your doing a hell of a lot better than I am at this moment in time.However and you will probably not take any notice of this but been doing this a while and this stock reminds me of some I owned during the tech wreck and at one point I was over a £100k up it didn’t end that way and I was very similar in attitude to you the big thing for me at the time was the shares kept going up and up and up and people kept saying they were stupidly overvalued but I started to believe in a new way of investing unfortunately in the end the market always has its day and moves to fast for your emotions to cope with and that P/E ratio is always king.

[villarich] 25/7/2018 11:07

No offence but I'll take the views of Peter Lynch and Mark Minervini with regards high growth shares over yours. I've been in this share since a fiver, topping up until £10 along the way and won't be going anywhere until I get the right signals to sell. Yesterday's rise increased my holding's value by 25%. I'd be mad to sell now.

[mr hangman] 25/7/2018 10:57

4.2 Billion, you must be mad

[sogoesit] 25/7/2018 10:56

RBC today raises price target to 4000 from 3200 rating it - Outperform.

(Good to see you on BUR, Villa. I think it will be a good'un).

[stevedd] 25/7/2018 10:54

It would be interesting to see the breakdown and growth plan of European (ex UK) sales as both Belgium and Spain have bigger gin markets than the UK. If they can get to the same level in those two countries as they have here then that would provide significant growth. Hopefully the new distribution deal in Spain will provide a boost in the second half and moving forward.

[martywidget] 25/7/2018 10:12

From the (powerpoint) presentation (link in post #1613 above), by the year 2022 they are perhaps looking to aim for 25% penetration of the global premium mixers. (page 8 in 2018 Interim results presentation)

'Opportunity remain significant'

'At 25% penetration the premium mixers opportunity would be over $3BN globally'

'Global mixer market size & opportunity, billion USD of retail sales value
opportunity would be over $3BN globally.'


If not successful/not successful, then summed up succinctly in this article:

Fevertree Can Stay Fizzy if It Cracks America
Once the U.K. market matures, the U.S. will have to pick up the growth baton.

...But the U.S. market can prove tricky even for companies that speak the same language — witness the struggles of Tesco Plc and Irish food manufacturer Greencore Group Plc. It’s not a given that Fevertree can navigate this market successfully.

Given the stratospheric rating, any stumble would be painful for investors. But it might also make the company a more palatable acquisition target for a big consumer or beverage group. They have been prepared to pay up for faster growth, but Fevertree’s current valuation might make a deal difficult to sell to a predator’s own shareholders.

So the key to Fevertree’s future success is a matter of taking another leaf out of Adele’s book, and cracking America.

[123trev] 25/7/2018 10:04

Villarich,sorry for late reply here but out yesterday and a little hangover,lol,like I said this share has been Stella in its growth but I still maintain this is massively overvalued and using the peg just isn’t a good idea here.If revenue was to double in the next few years and clearly that just won’t happen even the current price couldn’t be justified by any stretch of the imagination.The fact is this isn’t going to be a growth stock like it has been and the P/E ratio will seriously come into play here soon.Tell me in the interims how much cash after a nothing dividend was left! And you say that justifies that M/C just don’t see it and I’m sure big money would agree now hence this will start to tank soon.

[martywidget] 25/7/2018 10:01

RBC RAISES FEVERTREE DRINKS PRICE TARGET TO 4000 (3200) PENCE - 'OUTPERFORM'

[villarich] 25/7/2018 08:21

Haha Freudian slip. Not had one for a week!

[discodave4] 25/7/2018 08:10

PINo I don't but will take a butchers, ta.Villa - Pint! lol

[villarich] 25/7/2018 08:02

Picked up some BUR yesterday at 16.47. Only a tickle due to it being a pint but working out so far

[panic investor] 24/7/2018 22:47

Disco - do you have NMC - of a similar quality - the rides been great there also

[sogoesit] 24/7/2018 21:00

Thanks for feedback DD.
I'm late to BUR. My pick was JIL which was a mistake and I never had the courage to cut it and swap to BUR.

[discodave4] 24/7/2018 20:18

Held BUR from 744, bought the same day as FEVR (if my memory serves) and both have increased (%) by about the same amount.

[discodave4] 24/7/2018 19:39

Sogoesit,Yep, 22.7 weighted H2 is about 52.7 but increased to 55p for US growth (that's a finger in the air at the moment).The deal with SGWS was for two-thirds of the US states they cover, so assume the final third (15) will depend on how things go!.DD

[wetdream] 24/7/2018 18:36

I thought a PEG of 1 indicated 'fair value'?
Anything over, perhaps not.

[martywidget] 24/7/2018 17:18

For anyone who hasn't had a look over on the Fever-Tree website,

2018 Interim results presentation

[sogoesit] 24/7/2018 16:32

A good day for all... bull and bear alike!
a whopping 1.4m shares traded.

Back to square one, the popular £36!

[villarich] 24/7/2018 13:25

I don't think this is the last of the growth. Look at how Monster Bevs grew.

[villarich] 24/7/2018 13:24

I'm sorry but in my view you're completely wrong. PEG takes into account high PE companies and gives a view as to whether the high PE is justified by comparing it to the EPs growth. So it is more relevant than PE on its own. You also say look at the mcap. Again that's too simple a view on its own. I get the feeling you've thrown out the overvalued opinion without any real justification.

[123trev] 24/7/2018 13:16

Ps just look at that M/c your seeing the last of any real growth here.