Fevertree Drinks Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 12/7/2018 22:23

Here's a chart of the 3 years.
Historically the "cheapest" time to buy is post year end results at beginning of financial year as forward P/E expands during the year.

[sogoesit] 12/7/2018 20:42

Highest Forward P/Es paid during the last few years since IPO have been:

23/03/2015 to 13/03/2016 : 60.50

14/03/2016 to 20/03/2017 : 64.30

21/03/2017 to 23/03/2018 : 75.00

The forward P/Es tend to expand from their lowest on results day to their highest on pre-results day.

[panic investor] 12/7/2018 15:56

Why are you buying Schweppes ?

[juzzer100] 12/7/2018 13:33

Interesting email just received from a well known grocery delivery company:

Dear xxxx,

Our supplier Coca Cola is recalling Schweppes 1783 Light Tonic Water 600ml we delivered to you because they have identified a fault in how some closures have been applied to the 600ml glass bottles of our Schweppes 1783 tonics. The quality of the drink itself is not affected, but the incorrect application of some closures could cause a small number of them to pop off the bottle unexpectedly.

The affected items have a best before end date of up to and including 31 March 2019. As a precautionary measure, we are asking all consumers who have one of these bottles to open it carefully to release the pressure, ensuring the bottle is pointing away from the body when doing so. No other Schweppes products are affected by this issue, it is a problem limited to some of the 600ml glass bottles of the 1783 range.

We will automatically process a full refund on your behalf. Please allow 7-10 working days for this to appear on your statement.

On behalf of Coca Cola we apologise for any inconvenience caused.

[sogoesit] 12/7/2018 11:33

Well, still a ways to go til 25/07... so who knows.

I was thinking the other day (unusually ;-)!) about plotting a forward P/E against historical time to see what the trend in P/E and the highest P/E has been. There used to be a site I used in the dot.com days that charted that but it was for US stocks.
Surely, there must have been a time, earlier in its growth phase, where the forward P/E was higher than 65 to 70? Did we not have 80 or so at one time?

Maybe we are being caught off guard by thinking that this stock is peaking whereas it may grow another, bigger, leg and vault higher? I think that's what the £40 target analysts must be prognosing.
We still haven't really heard about how the "dark spirits" story is developing, coupled with the US, and thats meant to be 10x more than the gin market. Or maybe they will convert americans into gin drinkers....

[villarich] 12/7/2018 09:23

I'd take £40!! And I do think 70x is a fair multiple of the US expansion is going well.

[villarich] 12/7/2018 09:22

Let's hope so. I'd love it if he was missing out on this ride

[sogoesit] 11/7/2018 16:09

£40 more likely or possible as that's Jefferies' broker target, Villa.

Unlikely that as a humble nobody anyone would think my guestimating is any good but maybe lucky, who knows! 70 x maybe an "irrationally exuberant" step too far ;-)

Beware the descent from the summit when the reaction sets in!

Good luck for us PIs!

[chrisowen] 11/7/2018 15:23

I paid £3.50 for mine. I'm not selling...best fun I've had in ages.

[panic investor] 11/7/2018 14:51

I presume the fool sold ?

[villarich] 11/7/2018 14:48

There's your £36!! Next stop £42??

[aimingupward2] 11/7/2018 14:22

I wonder if Ian Cowie will be writing in the Sunday Times (Money) again this weekend to say how prescient his purchase of Fevertree shares at £34.14 was at the end of June and how good the interims and future prospects can be expected to be.

I suspect that he will be both pleased and surprised to find himself £2 per share up after just 8 trading days!

[kmann] 11/7/2018 11:29

Looks like its going to keep rising until the update

[sogoesit] 10/7/2018 16:13

Yep, and there you have it... volume so far today is about 5 times yesterday's.
Risk is to the upside imv.
£36 if interims come in at about 30p'ish EPS (6 months).
£42 if you want to pay 70x for that.

[panic investor] 10/7/2018 13:22

Down in Surrey various beers are now no longer available due to the co2 problem but nothing has affected Fevertree by the looks of things

[sogoesit] 10/7/2018 13:14

No worries, Villa. It's a pleasure.
Let me know any clarifications you may want to discuss.
Best

[sogoesit] 10/7/2018 13:05

"maybe that sell off started at 3500p, this sudden rise is just a relief on the co2 supply short."

maybe this, maybe that, maybe who knows...
In waitrose today they were out of stock of Ginger Ale and Indian Tonic.

Anyway, is CO2 in short supply in the US? Because that's what we're really speculating about with the upcoming figures.

In fact, the price action indicates to me a recent break-out to the upside after relatively low volume yesterday and increasing volume today. We are also pre-Interims over next 14 days or so. What do you reckon speculation will result in risk to the upside or downside?

[villarich] 10/7/2018 13:00

Sogo - thanks for the PM. Much appreciated. Sorry I've not acknowledged it before now.

[villarich] 10/7/2018 12:57

And what sell off are you talking about? The chart looks like it's in a consolidation pattern to me. That's a sign of strength.Or maybe the sell off started in September last year when it fell from £25 to under £20. Oh wait, it's up 75% since then...

[sogoesit] 10/7/2018 12:52

What's your view on what this year's full year EPS will be then?

You mean traders; investors usually have a term view... to the longer side than 1 year.
What's the term view you have to invest in this stock?

[kmann] 10/7/2018 12:07

Eps might be higher or in growth, but in absolute terms its a very hefty valuation. Investors are usually looking for an excuse to sell and take a bit of profit, so don't be surprised to see a sharp sell off.

maybe that sell off started at 3500p, this sudden rise is just a relief on the co2 supply short.

[sogoesit] 10/7/2018 11:29

Comparison to Britvic (post 2989)... Lol (you gotta)!

By the way, this company is for "insane" or "crazy" investors only!
Regards,
Your Insane Investor! ;-)

For those thinking it's an insane valuation please go short; be my guest!

[villarich] 10/7/2018 10:14

Sorry, have you really compared Fever Tree - a high growth, niche company, to Britvic - a slow growth stalwart? And your only comparison is revenues and PE? I'd argue that's toon arrow a focus.Best of luck with your investing career.