Ferro-alloy Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 27/1/2021 13:06

Oh you mean off take Nothing concrete at all about that.Let's see , I am looking forward to an update regardless whether it is positive or negative Just need to know if progress is being made on previous statements Need some real timelines as well

[jailbird] 27/1/2021 13:02

What take off contract ?

[rmart] 27/1/2021 12:21

Expecting an update soon to set us off to the next level. Should get news on the long term take off contract amongst some other good stuff.

[rmart] 27/1/2021 11:29

getting ready to rumble again.

[cyberbub] 25/1/2021 08:29

Wow I can dummy-sell 600k (the most I have in one account) all in one go, at 10.25p when the published bid is 10.10p...

[cyberbub] 22/1/2021 15:50

Bit of a disappointing dip, the golden cross seems to have failed for now.

But I think the MMs are fishing for shares by dropping the bid to 10.1p, I can sell 300k in one go at 10.25p which is not bad for a Friday late afternoon in a low-key and illiquid share...

Patience is the key on this one IMO, see where we are in a few weeks...

Have a nice weekend all.

[driver101] 22/1/2021 11:26

Cyber

Cheers good post steady as she goes as they say.

[cyberbub] 22/1/2021 11:17

I've had some further info from Nick Bridgen, which he's agreed I can post.

1. There is already an ESIA approved by the Kaz government, covering all the way up to the Stage 1 (mid-sized mine and plant) level. So that's another major paperwork thing already in place, on top of the mining permit. Really only the BFS is needed now.

2. The connection to the HV power supply, currently under construction, is big enough to power most or all of the Stage 1 operation (not just the 1500t/yr operation which is nearing completion). They might need to upgrade the power supply a little more later.

All very positive IMO!

I like how they're developing this massive project steadily and methodically in stages. I think after some years of slow development, we're going to see the pace accelerate substantially in 2021.

NAI DYOR

[cyberbub] 21/1/2021 11:56

Remember we already have the mining licence, albeit it might need tweaking and an ESIA etc. But once we have the BFS and modest positive cashflow, there is always the possibility of a bigger fish in the mining industry swooping to simply take out the company. But I doubt they would get it for much less than 100p IMHO - remember that the two directors hold over 40%, and although that's not enough to block a takeover, it would certainly ensure a fair price.

NAI

[rmart] 21/1/2021 10:32

cyberbub, yes, i am not expecting £1.71 in a matter of weeks. I am happy for that to take a year or so. It is just nice to be in a share at the start of the rise. 50p will do for starters in 3 or 4 months.

I think we should get a quarterly update soon. If production is up again it will give us a big boost.

[cyberbub] 21/1/2021 10:27

Rmart I wouldn't expect 171p soon. Remember VSA aren't independent.

I think we could be in the 20-25p area in the coming weeks though, in anticipation of the BFS.

And once the BFS is published (assuming it's broadly the same as the CPR) and we get confirmation that the company is modestly cashflow-positive, I would expect the company to start to reach a fair-value basis. For miners pre-funding that's typically 20-25% of an NPV. Our NPV is around 2bn, 20% of that is $400M = £300M, or about 90p. Even if we take a pessimistic view and discount for the country risk, and maybe some people think the management are still to prove their mettle, say 50-60p? That's a nice rise from 11p :-)

Then when the company (hopefully!) comes up with a funding package for Stage 1, the share price will climb further towards £1+ as investors realise that it's actually going to happen...

Of course there are no guarantees and it might all go pear-shaped. That's the risk you take in investing. Personally I've seen enough to think the risk/reward at 11p is very good...

NAI etc

[rmart] 21/1/2021 10:23

November saw a new US President-elect Joe Biden who aims to make the US energy carbon free by 2035. This is potentially a huge boost for the energy storage sector, which includes vanadium redox flow batteries.

[rmart] 21/1/2021 09:21

Looks like the next leg up is starting. Onwards and upwards towards the £1.71 Broker Target. 16 bags to go.

[cyberbub] 20/1/2021 12:34

I reckon the bonds will have gone towards the power connection (as this will be revenue-enhancing), and the placing proceeds to the BFS plus a contribution to overheads (not immediately revenue-enhancing) - that would be the appropriate way to do it.

[jailbird] 20/1/2021 09:14

This is what I mean , get on with it .Maybe he is exhausting all debt options before a placing .All I can say is he better not do a HMB I have little trust in the BoD upto now

[cyberbub] 20/1/2021 08:48

I believe that they can raise the remaining $3M approx through debt, but even if they have to do a placing so what. Unlike some microcap explorers, the cap here is now £40M and could be £50M soon. So a $3M raise is only a 5% dilution. Hardly a disaster! And would probably lead to a share price rise, as it would be quickly earnings-enhancing (aka a "positive placing"!)

[jailbird] 20/1/2021 08:43

I agree the priority is the BFS, for years it should gave been .I am not convinced the plant is cash flow positive at current production .I think the share price would have been higher if it was

[cyberbub] 20/1/2021 08:42

Jailbird, your point about HMB, as I said Bridgen didn't cover himself in glory but I don't think it was all his fault. Clearly there is a risk of the same at FAR if he hasn't learned his lesson, however there's an important distinction: HMB was a technically and financially difficult project, whereas FAR is the opposite. The excellent economics and low risk mean that it's harder to screw up, and that if he does then someone will come in, buy him out and take over.All IMO

[rmart] 20/1/2021 08:25

Shakin out some sellers, let’s see how this plays out. Imo blue by 11am.

[jailbird] 20/1/2021 08:22

Yes thanks for correction I see that now .So $3m required . But I maintain my view that this will be needed to bring 1500t plant into production and BFS completion

[cyberbub] 20/1/2021 08:14

Jailbird, check your currencies, the first one is GBP.

[rmart] 20/1/2021 07:47

Great info cyberbub, much appreciated. Let’s hope we get another stride forward on the share price today.

[garth] 20/1/2021 07:42

Thank you for the detailed response Cyberbub. Much appreciated.G.

[jailbird] 20/1/2021 07:12

Just reading the HMB 2019 onwards thread, some similarities with the approach if you ask me I am not sure if he has learnt his lesson

[jailbird] 20/1/2021 06:58

First paragraph I make that $1.925m raised , Not $2.3So approx need another $3.4mSo I the furnace , power line and BFS cannot be completed without this money being raised .Same problem he had at HMB, struggle to raise finance .Do not forget these debt bonds have service interest payments and require payback and some point .So unlikely to be cash flow positive until plant is running 1500t consistently. Reviewing their RNSes again, they've raised more than I thought in the last 9 months: £1.25M from placings, $75k share issuance against director fees, and $600k from debt. So basically $2.3M. Surely that will have paid for much of the admin costs for that period, further money towards the power connection (as stated in the October progress RNS), and also to finish the BFS (which NB quoted at $1.3M in the Crux interview last January)?That means the only major items left to fund are finish the power connection (quoted in Jan 2020 at $1.5M still to pay, probably now $1M still to pay) and then to buy the arc furnace, quoted by NB at $2M to buy. Total $3M still required, in my estimation.