Falk IS. Hldgs Share Discussion Threads

[imperial3] 06/3/2009 14:37

Is disillusion starting to creep in?

[whackford] 06/3/2009 12:40

GWR - yes, I'm sure if directors could have seen present state of economy coming they would have been less keen "... to diversify into a UK business..." etc.

On Glenn/Hangman's point, I would say that the two are indeeed incomparable - £50 day out far more sensible than most modern art. Let's hope it's only the commercial art servicing bit of Momart that having to face reality and that the bit servicing public sector and institutions is doing ok. But it's a worry on top of all the other bad news.

[glennborthwick] 06/3/2009 11:30

first printing now, now comparing million pound art purchases with a £50 day out . you make me chuckle.

[imperial3] 06/3/2009 09:50

Cannot understand why they went into the art market in the first place.No synergy with their current businesses.

[mr hangman] 06/3/2009 08:49

"as no-one is buying art" not visting Theme parks either.
"

[whackford] 06/3/2009 08:08

I am inclined to agree with your fears Glenn. Momart may turn out ok, but I was taken by surprise when it was taken on. And it's not a monopoly - far from it - even if they may be market leader.

Remember also the 1 year lockup of FKL shares as consideration for Momart is ending about now. Will be interesting if sales volume increases - if it does 200p may be here again.

[glennborthwick] 05/3/2009 22:59

but the appeal here was that apparently there was a back up business. Fogl is blue sky, boom or bust. Without a decent profit here you have little different. The momart purchase could turn out to be the biggest mistake ever in the history of this company. It never made sense. There were no synergys, and no knowledge of the market. I can tell you for a fact that even damien hirst who has a house near me, the worlds richest living artist has laid off half of his staff as no-one is buying art.

[7kiwi] 05/3/2009 22:55

A lot depends on the speed with whcih FOGL?BHP get a rig organised.

FOr p/e purposes you might be better stripping out the FOGL holding (non-income generating asset) and calculating the p/e with the p excluding the FOGL holding marked to market. Then you'll get a better picture of the underlying businesses.

[glennborthwick] 05/3/2009 22:51

for me the PE is still too high here. Think it might be testing 200p support very soon. Clearly most of it will be down to the one offs (hopefully) but when results hit the ehadlines of a swing to a loss it will hit this shareprice hard.

[mr hangman] 05/3/2009 19:14

Agreed Glen, hopefully in any upturn they will flog it, but still looking
forward to my dividend

[glennborthwick] 05/3/2009 18:58

to be honest that part of the business was always bound to suffer. I still maintain that they overpaid. Thankfully other bits should see them alright

[buzzyl] 05/3/2009 12:18

And once again a sizeable drop on not-so-bad news.

[greekman] 05/3/2009 08:31

A fairly neutral statement. As we know the only thing to give this a jump, up or down will be the final outcome from the oil fields.
SP down this am, presumably as punters are eager for oil field news.
Just ticking over at the moment. Patience is the key.

[glennborthwick] 10/12/2008 14:40

US revenues are bound to have taken a serious hit.


Already budgets for New yporks public libraries have been cut from ovr 200 million dollars to 184 million.

Ireland similarly and I dare say in the UK.


Finding Calm in Crisis: A Museum Survival Guide

Looking at the economic forecasts for 2009 does not give one much optimism for the year ahead. Navigating this uncertainty is difficult, but we believe you should not have to weather this storm alone.

I cant see the car sales division doing anything great, and they have to contend with a proper commercial rate for the gosport pontoon from next year.

On the plus side fuel will be cheaper and the balance sheet is ok.

Th underlying businesses will have a difficult year thats for sure. If theres no blue sky I dont see this holding at this level of PE.

[glennborthwick] 10/12/2008 14:31

now i knew that comment hurt. LOL. Your so easy to get to Mr H. I question the companies judgement though. A 10 million purchase for assets worth 350k buying at an ebitda ratio of above 8 is madness, in a very frothy sector My guess is the profit there will be wiped out this year. They still have to pay 3 million next year and the year after. A barmy purchase.

[whackford] 10/12/2008 10:07

Glen - thanks for your comment. Regarding Momart, all I can find about its activities is on page 6 of the ARA to 31 March 2008:

It says -
56% of revenues in 2007 were for services to public galleries & museums
10% Storage rental income
34% services to private galleries (which as you indicate will suffer)

It's not easy to translate this breakdown into the impact on Momart. However, they have a decent track record over a lengthy period. I would have assumed that FKL board did not overpay, but we shall see.

PHFC may decline as you say

FIC should see a good year, but the crucial thing is that we see some drilling activity in 2009.

I would be very disappointed if there was a profit warning bearing in mind Hudd's forward look. I was surprised to see Licht step down.

[philsgain] 10/12/2008 09:52

I do not have too much concern for the future health of Momart or the Portsmouth ferry. In my view these are just vehicles to give FKL some reasonable turnover and to remain a sustainable business whilst it waits for the eventual outcome of the drilling programs by FOGL. FKL is in a good position to become a highly profitable business in a couple of years time.

[glennborthwick] 09/12/2008 23:18

This has been a dog this year. Very lack lustre reaction to unremarkable results.

Going forward several of its businesses have specfic problems especially momart.

1. Currency pressures - the pound is a hell of a lot lower now than int eh first half

2. The fine art market is in freefall. Its an area I know well. Whoever sold momart timed it perfectly for the top of the market. Damien Hirst has laid off all his staff in toddington because of this. Plus auctions are struggling;

At the Dec. 3 VIP vernissage, there was no "collectors, start your engines" rush. Once inside, people actually looked at--and talked about--the art (instead of the labels) before they pulled out their credit cards. Despite lower asking prices--30% less at some booths--and a greater willingness by dealers to negotiate, many buyers put pieces on reserve, requesting hours, days and even weeks to think about buying.

Meanwhile, back in New York, with sales at the bellwether autumn auctions of impressionist, modern and contemporary art amounting to less than half the total of last year's sales, Sotheby's (nyse: BID - news - people ) was busy starting staff layoffs and Christie's was "reviewing our strategic plans in light of the current global economic environment."

"There's business being done," said Nicholas Acquavella of Acquavella Galleries in New York. "But it's obviously a new world now."



3. Volumes at portsmouth must also be lower this coming season

profit warning must be on the cards some time in 09.

[mr hangman] 09/12/2008 10:26

Really can't see the shares coming on the market at these levels, i would
imagine Licht is very wealthy, as for shares coming on the market
the bigger worry is old holders from PHFC dieing & there estates selling
& offcourse the directors from the auction company that was bought last
year (the lock in must be up soon).
But this could be a postive thing, if a big sell order hits the market
price will go down & we can top up at even lower levels.
Best to view the bigger picture, how much will FKL be worth if FOGL
get a rig/hit oil next year or 2010 ?

[whackford] 09/12/2008 08:42

Eburne - I think he has about 10%. I would be surprised if it does come on he market, but presume that FKL will have to issue RNSs if his holding falls.

I am surprised at his resignation - I would not have thought the job onerous, but I suppose he has to attend board meetings.

One wonders if he has resigned in order to make it less obvious if he disposes of some of his 10% holding. No certain way of finding out unless you have an inside contact.

I am not worried about more shares coming on the market, except in this particular case there could be a reason we average shareholders don't know about yet - that's the worrying thought.

[eburne1960] 08/12/2008 20:40

Little worried Licht is stepping down - hope his shareholding isn't going to start coming onto the market.....