Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 15/1/2020 11:42

There were probably around 30 attendees at the meeting last night including PR, reps from Finncap and Cenkos and four BOD/PDMR from Evgen, so there were probably around 16 PIs.

I will write up a few notes later, on what I considered to be the most salient points from the presentation (and conversations before and after), but meanwhile the slide deck is available here:

[ak_gabba] 15/1/2020 09:37

Hi timbo003 and others, was there any update on the investor seminar on the 14th Jan?
Thanks

[ih_343095] 15/1/2020 05:19

Hi Blakeysangel!.I think about you every day, wishing you all the best. Thank you for posting. I agree. Sulforaphane stops cancer from spreading. Hopefully the word will be broadcasted by doctors.

[blakeysangel] 14/1/2020 16:58

Hi,
If you pick this message up before you. Go can you ask them to get a move on there’s thousands of women like me out here that this could help! I’m still taking this 😀

[timbo003] 14/1/2020 15:36

Evgen investor seminar this evening, I will go along as I have a bunch of questions......will report back in due course

[dave444] 17/12/2019 07:25

They should apply for AAC funding from NHSE!

[dave444] 17/12/2019 07:18

Looking good!Well funded to Q3 2021 so at least 18months worth!Lots of trials planned and partner funding including grant funding to be pursued!

[90005nelson] 14/11/2019 15:21

This should return to 10p+ in the near future, looking forward to seeing how the board reacts too.

[dave444] 14/11/2019 12:22

The Newlands have taken the opportunity to increase their holding by 1.5% to 6.19% of EVG!

[langland] 14/11/2019 09:38

It looks like 5.5 on 11th should turn out to be a decent low. 231 days from the 28.55 top and 23 p down from there.

[dave444] 13/11/2019 21:31

Oh dear another moron turns up!He hasn't done any facts and analysis - I even had to point him to a specific piece of information which he continued to ignore the clear information and make up spurious claims!It has already proven efficacy and safety in breast cancer!!!!!Furthermore it has patented the solution so no competitors can arise!!On top of that they clearly state looking for a partner who will donate a hefty up front fee plus royalties

[ardinno] 13/11/2019 21:23

Yeah! Take your facts and your analysis and go somewhere else. I’m much happier with a combination of wishful thinking, fingers in my ears and buyers remorse thank you very much.

[dave444] 13/11/2019 19:06

Go buy some other share

[asat91] 13/11/2019 17:46

so that would be $100mill a year in about 7 years for evg. Market cap would be about $1billion-$2billion, 100/200 times it's current value. £7/£14 per share.

What's the chance of Phase IIb and Phase III being positive? That's incredibly difficult to predict.


5% of cancer drugs that enter phase I trials ultimately gain FDA approval, so could guess at 5% chance of regulatory approval.

It's a very crude estimate though because it doesn't include any weighting for potential competitor drugs, low powered study of small companies like EVG, and the fact that it has already made it to phase II.

A 1 in 20 bet for a 100/1 payout in 7 years.

That's assuming all other indications have zero value because they are such early stage.

[dave444] 13/11/2019 17:18

I think in their communications they were talking of double digit royalty percentages

[asat91] 13/11/2019 17:00

Let's assume $1billion/year for SFX-01 happens at some point in the future.

How long do you think it will be until that happens?
What percentage of that money do you think EVG will see?

[dave444] 13/11/2019 15:33

Market opportunity for SFX-01 is initially second-line therapy post-CDK4/6i failure
Everolimus +
Exemestane
Fulvestrant
SFX-01 +
Fulvestrant
Safety profile
Poor
Good
Good (Target)
Efficacy (Progression-Free Survival)
7.8 months
3 to 6 months
> or = 7.8 months (Target)
Sales
Everolimus $1.5bn1
Fulvestrant $940m2
SFX-01 >$1bn3
 Substantial market opportunity – CDK4/6i sales projected to reach c.$9bn by 2021e4  Partner SFX-01 as second-line therapy to CDK4/6i – potential upfront of $50m+5

[asat91] 13/11/2019 14:21

Following narratives told by others is what leads a person to the middle of a jungle with no swiss army knife.

Look at the information yourself and decide for yourself what story it tells.

[dave444] 13/11/2019 12:52

That is not the narrative of the presentation

[asat91] 13/11/2019 12:51

Ah thanks Dave good job.

It does say 'SFX-01 as second-line therapy to CDK4/6i – potential upfront of $50m' at the bottom of the breast cancer section.

The asterix says the source is a pharma deals review in 2016, so that $50mill is an estimate based on the value of other upfront payments that have taken place in the past with other companies. It's not because they have a company lined up ready to pay it now.

I would guess that's the estimated upfront payment for after a successful phase III trial.

[peterm10] 13/11/2019 12:07

There was also a valuation in the finncap note of April 2 available on their website if you register. SAH was valued at around half

[dave444] 13/11/2019 11:58

Go to EVG website click on investors then on shareholder information and open the link latest investor presentation

[asat91] 13/11/2019 11:39

Can you provide a link?

The only presentation on the website close to April is the one below. It does not mention anything about partnering or a specific figure for breast cancer indication.

[dave444] 13/11/2019 11:09

Evgen website April presentation on the slides for breast cancer Separate slides for SAH had different figures but these are obviously now worthless They were looking for partners from April so I would hope positive news soon