Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[dave444] 17/1/2020 17:15

As I thought Amati are all out of EVG!

[dave444] 17/1/2020 08:54

Well it has sparked EVG share trading into life

[dave444] 17/1/2020 08:52

Must be Monday then

[nobbygnome] 16/1/2020 16:19

Hmmm very good theory.....if so we are due a holdings' announcement imminently.

[dave444] 16/1/2020 16:11

I wonder if Amati Global have sold out as their 5% = 6,666,667 shares is equivalent to the 6,166,667 earlier plus 500,000 just gone through

[dave444] 16/1/2020 14:43

This should easily be back up in the 15-20p area

[dave444] 16/1/2020 14:42

The obvious underlying value of the product

[herb clark] 16/1/2020 14:40

Why the rise?

[ohisay] 16/1/2020 08:31

Thanks Timbo/Nobby.

[lovewinshatelosses] 15/1/2020 20:08

Thanks Nobby (and Timbo too). Most welcome and insightful thoughts as always. Back to sleep on this one now for me until further news. Or unless Dave wants to buy my stock for 50p a share :) Have a good evening gents.

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2020 19:49

A small amount. I was lucky to sell most at the highs after the March trial results announcement. I am not intending to add any more in the short term but have a watching brief so to speak. I don't think I can add that much to timbo's thorough write up. However, for me the major point is not about being taken over but a company buying into the program by funding the phase IIb/III trial in breast cancer that they are designing now. After all their stated strategy is to license after phase II and they have had 10 months since the results came out. Their strong view was that the imminent pre clinical paper about the STAT3 inhibition and the importance for breast cancer will be the turning point for the chances of a deal and that may well be true. I am sure the publication of the paper will be completely lost on the market but clearly will be significant. The work they are doing to change the formulation and improve the tox package is clearly also important. This will enable and facilitate longer trials in the non cancer indications which they can't do at the moment. I presume this data will be ready in time for the autism trial which means it can be longer than the currently allowable 30 days (I think, timbo correct me if I'm wrong). The data from the US placebo controlled trial in autism effectively with a lower dose on the face of it sounds very good and so if it is repeatable, the result should be positive. The MOA in this indication is a little difficult to understand although they said it was to do with the reduction in oxidative stress seen due to the activation of NRF2. That is quite feasible but there are various other drugs which reduce oxidative stress which in theory could also be used in this indication. Doh, I should have asked that question but didn't! Anyway all very interesting scientifically but as I said above I have a watching brief for now.

[lovewinshatelosses] 15/1/2020 19:26

You still holding any stock here Nobby, or just watching from the sidelines? I have not felt inclined at any point since the bad news to add, but also did not sell any either, as I felt the breast cancer one was still worth holding out for, high risk though that is. Did the senior management team that attended create a positive impression on you? More as a side note, rather than necessarily as a factor to read too much into.

[dave444] 15/1/2020 17:28

They could buy this for between 50p and a pound per share which would be a days expenses for them!

[dave444] 15/1/2020 17:27

Hi Timbo I agree but with a market capitalization of £8m for a product that is known to work when as previously mentioned another company is valued at $7bn looking into nrf2 I would have thought it might be the exception

[timbo003] 15/1/2020 16:53

>>>Dave That was not mentioned by anyone. It is probably too early for a big pharma to get their cheque book out. In general they tend to be risk adverse and would rather pay more for an asset which is de-risked as opposed to paying less for an early stage asset which is inherently more risky

[dave444] 15/1/2020 15:18

Thanks timbo Do you think or did anyone mention if any of the 3 large pharma might think of buying EVG?

[timbo003] 15/1/2020 15:09

There were four Evgen attendees at the meeting: Steve Franklin (CEO), Richard Moulson (CFO), Barry Clare (Chairman) and Sally Ross (Clinical Dev Officer) Steve went over most of the slides, with Sally covering those which were clinically related. The link to the slide set is here: https://walbrookpr.com/investors/pdf/Evgen-Pharma-plc-company-presentation.pdf The points that struck me as most interesting were as follows: Sulforaphane is believed to act via two different mechanisms * Nrf2 activation (possible treatment of multiple indications including, Autism and NASH, see slide 20) * SAT3 inhibition (prevention of metastases in cancers) The only other quoted pharma specialising in Nrf2 activators is Reata Pharmaceuticala, who have two Nrf2 activator compounds in Phase III clinical development targeting 4 different indications (plus ample cash to complete the programs). Reata are quoted on Nasdaq and have a market cap of $7Bn https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/RETA?p=RETA&.tsrc=fin-srch-v1 https://www.reatapharma.com/ https://www.fiercebiotech.com/keyword/reata-pharmaceuticals (for reference: Market cap for Evgen is currently £7.5m and they had around £5m cash at the end of Sept) The role of SAT3 in metastases is a rapidly developing field and is not yet fully understood, but Evgen’s collaborators are in the process of publishing a review paper on the subject in a high impact journal (available within a month or so) which will include much of their own work and reference the recent STEM study. This should increase general awareness of SAT3 and the potential of inhibitors of SAT3 (such as sulforaphane) to prevent metastases. Evgen are currently well funded (£5m at end of Sept), the cash will mainly be spent on: * Additional tox studies, allowing them to dose beyond 28 days for other indications (i.e. autism and Nash) not just late stage cancer. * Development of a tablet formulation for use in proposed studies in Autism, Nash and Breast cancer (Formulation used in first two studies was a giant hand filled capsule) * Preparing for a second (controlled) study in breast cancer Evgen have no intention to raise funds at around the current share price. The proposed studies on Autism (Guys, London) and NASH (Dundee) will be via non- dilutive funding, these agreements are yet to be finalised, as the institutions are in the process of obtaining grant approval, but it is anticipated that the “normal commercial terms” refered to in the RNS announcements will only concern a few milestone payments, there will probably be no royalties and if there were any, they would be reassuringly small. For the work on Sulforaphane analogues at Saville, Evgen conducted two separate tests (Nrf2 activation and anti-metastases assay). They got some hits for both assays, although none of the 40 – 50 compounds were as potent as sulforaphane for Nrf2 activation. This work is complete and there are no further obligations for further work (or payments) they could (if they wish) now sit on this and maintain the patents (until expiry) to reinforce the IP around sulforaphane (note: from what I can gather it was the Chairman, Barry Clare who championed this work). There is currently some work ongoing regarding the crystal structure of SFX-01 which suggests there are more than one polymorph and different polymorphs may have different stability characteristics, this could help extend the IP out to 2040. The results for the SAH study were obviously disappointing. It is possible that they may have been better, if dosing could have been continued beyond 28 days. The results were analysed in every way possible to look for trends, there was a trend observed in favour of the active in one of the variables measured, but this could be accounted for by the number of multiple comparisons conducted (i.e. it was through chance). The patients from the placebo group responded better than expected and the (low) mortality rate was the same for both the active and placebo groups. Furthermore the blood flow measurements (primary variable) for many of the patients showed more variability than normally observed for SAH patients. The three major pharmas who are likely to be the most interested in partnering Sulforaphane for breast cancer are Novartis, Lilly and Pfizer (these are the three pharmas which market the CDK4/6 inhibitors which are used to treat metastatic breast cancer), see slide 27 of slide deck. Breast cancer cells eventually develop resistance to CDK4/6 inhibitors (and Aromatase inhibitors/ER modulators) and it is believed that sulforaphane acts by preventing resistance developing. Evgen have discussed the STEM data with big pharmas and they have expressed interest, but the general comment is that they would like to see more data (from a larger controlled study).

[dave444] 15/1/2020 13:39

Nobby it would be good to get your detailed thoughts on the meeting!

[ohisay] 15/1/2020 13:12

I note £5m cash at end September 2019 - enough to take them to September 2021 according to the presentation . I bought a few this morning.I dont think current EV is a realistic valuation though it could be a long haul.

[nobbygnome] 15/1/2020 11:46

I was also there and will make a few points later. Overall I came away with a positive view but there are definitely a few issues.

[timbo003] 15/1/2020 11:42

There were probably around 30 attendees at the meeting last night including PR, reps from Finncap and Cenkos and four BOD/PDMR from Evgen, so there were probably around 16 PIs. I will write up a few notes later, on what I considered to be the most salient points from the presentation (and conversations before and after), but meanwhile the slide deck is available here: https://walbrookpr.com/investors/pdf/Evgen-Pharma-plc-company-presentation.pdf

[ak_gabba] 15/1/2020 09:37

Hi timbo003 and others, was there any update on the investor seminar on the 14th Jan? Thanks

[ih_343095] 15/1/2020 05:19

Hi Blakeysangel!.I think about you every day, wishing you all the best. Thank you for posting. I agree. Sulforaphane stops cancer from spreading. Hopefully the word will be broadcasted by doctors.

[blakeysangel] 14/1/2020 16:58

Hi, If you pick this message up before you. Go can you ask them to get a move on there’s thousands of women like me out here that this could help! I’m still taking this 😀

[timbo003] 14/1/2020 15:36

Evgen investor seminar this evening, I will go along as I have a bunch of questions......will report back in due course