Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 30/10/2019 16:54

The last few posts remind me of something SF mentioned at one of the investor meetings a few months ago i.e. don't confuse the overall mortality (30-40%) for SAH with mortality in hospitalised patients (which is a significantly lower figure), because around 20% of patients with SAH never make it (alive) to hospital for treatment.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 16:15

Good post Nelson. Evaluable subjects - this is also known from a statistical perspective as the Per Protocol Set (PPS). These are patients who have 1)Completed a minimum predefined observational period 2)Have measurements for the Primary Outcome 3)Have not met criteria for Major Protocol Violations. Usually, you get a few patients who do not make it to the PPS. Hence, this could explain the potential discrepancy between 9.5% and 16%. Hence, mortality could be closer to 10% (as per figure at 71% enrollment) or slightly higher, and you may also have a few % of patients excluded from the final analysis (example, due to major protocol violations or incomplete data).

[90005nelson] 30/10/2019 15:46

That's interesting figures, I've also read 107 patients recruited with 89 being evaluable. Which I took as 16% mortality rate.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 14:55

That's great information you've posted L0ngterm! Overall mortality with 71% patients - at 9.5% is VERY low, compared to overall mortality rates for SAH in general, near 30-40%. Hence, it looks to me like more healthy patients were enrolled (i.e. patients with reduced conscious state/coma or severe hemiplegia excluded). This is promising - to maximise potential effects on Rankin Score, which is a Secondary Outcome Measure.

[l0ngterm] 30/10/2019 14:44

Some figures from March 2019 on the trial. Link below. "64 (71% of the target) patients have been enrolled. 35 patients have completed the study. Statistical analysis of the TCD data will be performed at the end of the trial. The mortality is at 9.5% (6). DSMB have met twice since the start of the trial and there have been no safety concerns. Conclusions The trial is recruiting on the planned trajectory and at this rate we are projected to complete the trial by the end of the year."https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.researchgate.net/publication/331102933_WM1-2_SFX-01_after_subarachnoid_haemorrhage_protocol_of_a_multi-centre_phase_II_double-blinded_randomised_controlled_trial/amp

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 14:02

I anticipate that the study results will be out over the next 2 weeks.

Here are my predictions of the study results, for the 3 Primary Outcome Measures:-
1) Adverse Event Evaluation (safety of SFX-01 vs. placebo) - this is really a no brainer for me - because previous public disclosures by Evgen on the DSMB (Data Safety Monitoring Board ) findings have already indicated that the drug is very safe and well tolerated vs. placebo. CONCLUSION - SFX-01 very safe in SAH patients
2) Maximum CSF concentration - previous animal studies have shown that SFX-01 crosses the blood brain barrier (BBB). SFX-01 being a small molecule, should have no problems crossing BBB. CONCLUSION - DRUG WILL BE FOUND IN CSF, PASS!
3) No of patients with reductions in middle cerebral artery (MCA) peak flow velocity. Previous animal studies have shown that SFX-01 alleviates cerebral artery vasospasm secondary to oxyhaemoglobin formation. Note - only 30-40% of patients will have significant vasospasm after SAH - but I would expect SFX-01 to have positive effects in these patients. CONCLUSION - LIKELY SOME POSITIVE EFFECT WILL BE SEEN, MAINLY IN SUBSET OF PATIENTS WITH CEREBRAL ARTERY VASOSPASM.

The results will be very very interesting if they find that SFX-01 reduces mortality in SAH patients vs. placebo. Note that this reduction in mortality has been seen in several animal studies with NRF2 activators:- ref: Neuroprotective Role of the Nrf2 Pathway in Subarachnoid Haemorrhage and Its Therapeutic Potential (Zolnourian et al, 2019).

A reduction in mortality, if seen, could impact the Secondary Outcome Measure of the study - namely the Rankin Score - if more patients actually survive on SFX-01 vs. placebo. Paradoxically, those who survive on SFX-01 could be left with more significant neurological deficit. Hence, SFX-01 may have the potential to help SAH patients survive, who might have otherwise perished if they did not receive SFX-01. Will be interesting to see overall effect on Rankin Score.

Interesting times ahead - I'm looking forward to the results! Primary Outcome Measures - likely to be very good, but secondary outcome measures may be interesting, especially if SFX-01 impacts mortality. Overall, I'd expect this study to give the green light for the next phase i.e. Ph3.

[90005nelson] 25/10/2019 18:25

Results anytime from next week.

[purple11] 21/10/2019 13:56

thanks pennyfalls.gl

[pennyfalls] 20/10/2019 16:08

Don't take it as gospel , purple11, but I think approx Mid-Q4 has been talked about.
I would think anytime between now and mid - to end November

[purple11] 19/10/2019 10:39

when do ppl think these results will be released?are we looking at nov/dec ?

[lovewinshatelosses] 16/10/2019 21:44

Hi PF. I suspect your estimated range is far more likely to be closer to the mark than mine. While I agree from a long term perspective it probably does not matter anyway, the low base does act as a drag on proceedings. This is part and parcel of small pharma stocks I guess - the fairly vague window for results/material news can lead to impatient PI's speculating all over the place!

[pennyfalls] 16/10/2019 20:18

Thanks for continuing to follow me around ‘tick-downR17; troll..
Although I value your continued support greatly, I do know a few pretty good psychotherapists if you fancy getting out more..

Hi LWHL :o)
Ref today’s price action, looks like the average trading volume is set to increase up to news, but reckon MMs will be taking it down and bit then levelling it off again, just to make a market. I don’t expect to see a rise to 18p unless there’s a (good) leak, and think it’ll stay circa 13.5-15p..

Not really relevant tbh as it’s all on the RNS, although I suppose I;d rather see a higher ‘base’ level to move from.

[lovewinshatelosses] 16/10/2019 14:12

I am certainly not sure PF, nor looking to do anything further with this share until results at the earliest; it was only to probably demonstrate my total inability to call these things accurately in the short term! I am impressed by those commentators on these boards who do seem to call it very accurately on a regular basis, but only as a matter of interest, rather than with a view to try and trade on it. Only for a bit of fun.

[pennyfalls] 16/10/2019 13:33

LWHL...I wouldn’t be so sure on it continuing upwards pre-news..

[lovewinshatelosses] 16/10/2019 12:19

Thinking out loud, I wonder what the share price will reach at the last minute before news? Will we touch a new year high? I am going to plump for 18p (based on nothing at all). After the results, whatever they are, I have no clue whatsoever but I do enjoy the anticipation!

[90005nelson] 16/10/2019 10:33

The results will be a great trading opportunity but it's what happens after the results that will take this share stratospheric.

[pennyfalls] 16/10/2019 09:54

Morning..
I thought some of those might have bene buys yesterday and inflection point hit.

Looks like 13.5 was the technical support bounce. Doubt we'll see that again before news.
Good luck all..investors and traders both

[purple11] 16/10/2019 09:08

im one of "those" traders whos back in this morning.im in for the news.gla

[pennyfalls] 15/10/2019 22:40

To be honest, it's difficult to judge any 'buys' or 'sells' and attach any pattern to them as there are so many variables. There have been one-off chunky trades almost every other day for a while now (most listed as sells):

Are they actually buys or sells, all of them, or some of them? Are they individual unconnected trades or the same entity?

Does the buyer or seller know something that the general public doesn't or are they educated guesses/ pure punts/ de-risking as the RNS approaches?

Is £20-30K a high amount for the trader(s) (one man/woman's £30K is another's £300 , £3K or £300K in relative magnitude)

Is it one of the bigger 3%/ 7% holders? (no Holdings RNS yet, but sometimes these are delayed for days/ weeks)

Are they actual 'real' trades, or MMs creating a false market buying and selling between each other? (although they didn't shift the price action today)
Have they been shorting between news?

MMs don't like LTH (and Evgen has a few) and need to walk down the price to unstick weaker hands. They must have made a pretty penny since the last EVG spike.

Maybe Wednesday morning we'll see a price change. If those were buys, maybe it's hit inflection point, with risk-taking buyers are now tempted with bigger punts



anyway, just musing, as news is now fast approaching

[lovewinshatelosses] 15/10/2019 20:10

Not me on this occasion :)

[pennyfalls] 15/10/2019 18:53

Some rather chunky trades today - two of them listed as 'Sells' on some sites, but a 200,000 and 175,000 were right on the mid price 13.875, another 100,000 at 13.75p twixt them probably was a sell (*which may indicate other two were buys)
Things warming up a bit?

anyone owning up? ;o)

[lovewinshatelosses] 14/10/2019 09:42

In my defence, these chat boards are responsible for having taught me lots of these types of acronyms, but marketing strategists are ultimately to blame it seems....

[pennyfalls] 13/10/2019 23:57

Haha..You’re just an acronymiac Nobby

[nobbygnome] 13/10/2019 22:19

I knew what FOMO meant so I must be young.....