Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[pennyfalls] 10/10/2019 20:20

Dear Artist Formerly Known as LWHL,
Yes, missing out is sometimes a greater psychological pain than losing materially..
Although, it’s also the well-trodden road to the casino..
And I’m on it ;o)

[lovewinshatelosses] 10/10/2019 20:12

Hi Pennyfalls. I did contact advfn and my attempts to change my name to LWHL was rebuffed, so perhaps I should now go by the name of the artist formally known as (or would that be a trade mark breach perhaps?!!) Anyway, I share your impetuosity but with a small cap stock like this one, I personally would feel much worse missing out on a multibagger than a total wipeout (please, please let it be the former though :)

[pennyfalls] 10/10/2019 16:48

Hi Nelson and Lovesomuchtowinandhateslossesbadly (LWHL) ;o)

Well LWHL..I think that applies to all of us with most companies if gut instinct isn’t followed.
Although, in recent times, the only thing I really kick myself for is not following quite obvious technical markers for buying or selling stock.

Obviously Evgen doesn’t fit this, as the catalyst is news - and I’m sure my reaction (either way) will be much the same as yours. I’ve almost certainly over-invested here, but I can be a tad impetuous !

[lovewinshatelosses] 10/10/2019 16:40

I have long since given up trying to guess the direction of the share price here; I tend to veer towards pessimism when it comes to whether such drops are due to leaks, large holders de-risking or any number of other things. In this case, I am going to give them the benefit of the doubt, as I do not remember seeing anything dubious on this front since I have been invested here - so if things go well, I will pat myself on the back for holding my nerve, but if its a disaster, I will kick myself for not seeing the 'obvious' signs! GLA.

[90005nelson] 10/10/2019 15:05

I agree with your timeline for the news. LTH are also derisking as they watch previous profits evaporate.The share price is now below my average and represents 13.3% of my portfolio. I'm happy to divert other profits, as & when, into the lower price.

[pennyfalls] 10/10/2019 14:41

Hi Nobby/Nelson..
Ive got to say Im not particularly �baffled� by the price movement, which seems to be following a well-trodden path between news to support of either 13.5p or 15p (broken), however, I am a little concerned that someone in some lab somewhere may have a shifter of something, although by no means saying this is the case; just a worry.

I believe news is probably later in October to mid-November, so maybe it�s simply being walked down - although to do that, they need sellers (unless they�re trading between MMs to create an illusion)

If these trades are valid, then someone, or some people , are certainly selling batches of rather large chunks.
I see that there has been no Holdings RNS about the main holders, so at the moment it is pure guesswork - that people are de-risking/over-exposed/ want money for other things etc and feel that news isn�t coming until November.

The other option is a leak, although maybe the Volume traded doesn�t equate to that.

[nobbygnome] 10/10/2019 12:02

I have to say I am a bit baffled by the recent price movement. Somebody clearly wants out for a reason which is beyond me as I don't think it is possible that anybody knows the result of the blinded trial yet.

I agree that we probably won't get the results until November; cleaning up of data bases and data analysis always takes longer than expected in my experience. However, I can't really see why a short delay should cause such a pronounced fall.

[90005nelson] 09/10/2019 23:15

Looks to me like the market isn't expecting results in October. So people worrying feeling over-exposed are reducing to a level they're comfortable holding at and also using the newly available funds for other shares.

[pennyfalls] 09/10/2019 16:56

I’m a little concerned by some of the largish sells in recent days/weeks.
I do wonder if someone has a sniff about the results direction?
Today’s £23K was a sell, but posted as a buy as it was a delayed trade posting - and a couple of other £7Ks at a similar time.
Could be people de-risking, MMs swapping shares between each other, or the possibility of a direction of travel leaking slowly?
(Although to be fair, the same direction of travel chart-wise has preceded every other major rise)

[90005nelson] 09/10/2019 11:39

Had a little top-up this morning

[diamondstar1] 07/10/2019 18:02

Hi Pennyfalls, Thanks for your PM. I have sent a reply; apologies for the delay in getting back to you.

[pennyfalls] 04/10/2019 21:31

Must say there’s been some terrific knowledge on this board, and very lucky to have some dedicated Biotech people giving insight like Nobby, Timbo and Diamondstar.
Been looking through some of their past posts regarding other shares, and makes for very interesting and insightful reading.
Thanks to everyone else, Nelson et al, who’ve brought good discussion here too and Blakeysangel for such openness x

[pennyfalls] 03/10/2019 21:17

FAO Diamondstar..
sent you a Private Message,
Cheers

[blakeysangel] 29/9/2019 18:27

Diamond star,
There is no placebo as trial works like this, I was taking tamoxifen for 3 years, it stopped working, so added SFX01 with Tamoxifen and now it has kicked Tamoxifen back into action. So all the trial participants were on a drug that failed and STEM was tried to see if it would kick start the drug again. Hence no placebo because the drugs weren’t working so we couldn’t of stayed on the drug without STEM.. am I rambling lol.

[90005nelson] 29/9/2019 18:15

I believe number 1) is false and number 2) is true. All the indications, shows delay mainly due to extra workload dataset. Which in turn means the mortality percentage (40%) has decreased to closer to 20% which in turn means that SFX-01 is a life saver in SAH trial, which in turn means that the secondary endpoint data is vital for it to keep its integrity.

[90005nelson] 29/9/2019 16:51

1) 40% of patients die within 30 days.2). we will fully maintain the blinded integrity of the secondary endpoint data, which in this trial are particularly important as they will form the basis of the primary endpoints in subsequent studies.3). Only one of the above statements can be true not both.

[90005nelson] 29/9/2019 13:44

The trial recruited a total of 104 patients, split into two arms in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.Wonder what the mathematical conundrum needed to be solved?

[90005nelson] 29/9/2019 13:12

Anyone worked out, Evgen has 20%+ more data than anticipated.?The clinical team is now focussed on the cleaning, validation and analysis of the large volume of data collected in this trial.

[nobbygnome] 29/9/2019 08:22

Although the cynics might say that nimodipine is so ineffective it is about equivalent to a placebo!

[nobbygnome] 29/9/2019 08:20

>> diamond

It is not a placebo controlled trial in SAH. The placebo group are getting nimodipine which is the current standard of care. The active group are getting the same plus sulforaphane. When you have a life threatening or severe condition clinical trials are never done without the standard of care.

[pennyfalls] 28/9/2019 23:01

Hi everyone,
Ethics or otherwise?
I think that since nothing else worked for Stage 4 Breast cancer, no placebo was required as the trial was already using a type of placebo ..
the fact that nothing else worked was already the placebo IMO - and since this was life-saving/extending rather than proving parameters , this info wan't needed yet.

However, as they narrow the targets for the next breast cancer trials, which will aim at earlier stage efficacy, then this will be more strict with tighter controls

[diamondstar1] 28/9/2019 15:07

Unethical to run a clinical trial with placebo in Metastatic Breast Cancer? Yet, ethical to run a placebo controlled trial in Subarachnoid Haemorrhage? I’m sorry... I don’t buy the unethical argument. The breast cancer study was on top of Standard of Care. How can we interpret the study results, when we don’t have a good yardstick to compare to?

[90005nelson] 28/9/2019 13:28

Primary endpoint timeline is more important than than the secondary endpoint

[90005nelson] 28/9/2019 12:42

SAH trial had a flaw, the statisticians would have picked it up and so would have the clinicians. 40% of patients die within 30 days and for the survivors c.50% will have long-term cognitive impairmentThey would have compelling evidence, by 5th to 18th March 2019 . They had no choice but to delay releasing results.The previous month EVG had printed in February 2019 (Q1) they they would release primary endpoint data in Q2 . There you go