Evgen Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[dave444] 06/11/2019 20:39

£1/share is the minimum this will be at post deal!Probably more realistically £1.50/share!So selling out at 16.50p is not very bright!!!!!

[dave444] 04/11/2019 10:49

Excellent post!I am locked and loaded

[serialinvestor1] 04/11/2019 06:43

Private investors would be wise to take note:

• March 25 2019: Stunningly positive headline results from the Phase II trial of SFX-01 in metastatic breast cancer. SFX-01 is shown to halt the growth of tumours, and in some cases to significantly shrink the tumours, with minimal side effects; something rarely seen in the field of oncology.

• April 02 2019: House broker FinnCap initiates research on the company with an initial target price of 35p but indicates that any further positive readouts (relating to ongoing trials with SFX-01) should demand prices in excess of 85p.

• April 17 2019: The company raises £5m (at 15p) in a heavily oversubscribed placing and advises the market that out-licensing discussions (with pharma majors) are underway with the potential for substantial value enhancement for shareholders.

• April 23 2019: Millionaire venture investor, chess maestro, and former CEO of Silence Therapeutics, Ali Mortazavi, snaps-up 3.3m placing shares (3% of the company).

• April 24 2019: Millionaire serial investor, and head honcho of Ora Capital, Richard Griffiths, snaps-up 3.4m placing shares to take his holding to 7.3m (6% of the company).

• May 22 2019: Millionaire serial investor, and head honcho of Ora Capital, Richard Griffiths snaps-up a further 3m shares to take his holding to 10.3m (7.5% of the company).

• August 05 2019: Agreement signed with King's College London and the British Heart Foundation to see if SFX-01 can provide neurovascular protection in both stroke and potentially wider neuropsychiatric complications.'

• August 07 2019: European Patent Office grants further intellectual property rights in Europe pertaining to its proprietary technology, Sulforadex (the novel composition of SFX-01). Patents have already been granted in the USA and other territories.

• September 05 2019: Memorandum of Understanding penned with Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust to supply SFX-01 to support a clinical trial in patients diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). There are currently no approved medicines for treating the three core symptoms of autism (communication difficulties, social challenges and repetitive behaviour) which have long represented a huge area of unmet clinical need for affected families. Based on its novel mode-of-action, SFX-01 has the potential to become a first-in-class treatment for the core symptoms of ASD, disrupting the current £3bn ASD market.

• November 2019: Top line results for the Phase II trial of SFX-01 (after subarachnoid haemorrhage) are expected to be announced. There’s heightened confidence amongst investors and the medical fraternity that the results will meet the primary endpoints of safety, tolerability, and blood flow, along with key secondary endpoints measuring cognition, MRI and biomarkers. According to the Lancet, there’s been no new drugs for treating subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), for 28½ years and so a positive readout would be materially significant for the pharmaceutical industry and highly transformational for the company.

• Evgen Pharma’s cash position at 31 March 2019 was £2.0m. However, the company went on to raise £5m at the backend of April 2019 thereby taking its cash position to £7.5m (inclusive of a £0.5m tax credit). And assuming five months’ worth of routine clinical expenditure and recurring administrative costs, the company’s cash position at November 05 2019 is projected to stand at circa £6.9m.

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So, with a market cap of £21m (16.5p), and less £6.9m of cash and cash equivalents, means the market is valuing SFX-01 at a paltry £14.1m.

And that doesn’t even factor-in the potential value uplift that may come about from the ongoing out-licensing discussions or from a positive readout of the company’s Phase II trial of SFX-01 – expected imminently.

Remember, the company has been granted orphan drug designation by the FDA for SFX-01 (in the treatment of subarachnoid haemorrhage). Orphan drug designation gives SFX-01 US market exclusivity for seven years from the date of marketing approval. Thus, should the November readout prove to be successful, the FDA are on course to approve SFX-01 thereby providing a quick route to market and allowing significant revenues to be generated whilst a Phase 3 study is conducted.

To that end, analysts are forecasting the first milestone payment (in early 2020) to be in the region of $50-$100 million.

Two words: Significantly undervalued.



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[lovewinshatelosses] 31/10/2019 19:47

I have never called a top correctly before, so it would be a first! As long as the results are satisfactory though, it can settle wherever it wants pre-results. That said, I did toy with the idea of buying some more of these to trade last week, but held off doing so unfortunately. Had a good day on paper with this and two other small cap stocks I am holding, so more treats than tricks....

[pennyfalls] 31/10/2019 19:22

Ps LWHL...maybe we will see your climb to 18p pre-news

[pennyfalls] 31/10/2019 19:21

Hi Waterloo, imo I don’t think it’ll be an institutional investor at this late stage, and the volumes are still relatively low.
Institutions usually don’t wait until the death to get in and I think would have been building earlier (as a couple of big investors did in the 15p fundraiser)

Reckon, today’s buys have been PIs with this in their diaries and mid Q4 is upon us, or someone has seen a few smiles in the office
;o)

[waterloo01] 31/10/2019 17:06

Mainly 50k trades or higher makes me think it's an II building a position?

[lovewinshatelosses] 31/10/2019 17:04

A very gratifying day and hopefully more to come soon.

[diamondstar1] 31/10/2019 14:55

Yes, I agree that slippage of timelines can occur. Hence, great if we receive results in November. Also fine if in December.... but wow... the share price move today is behaving as if the results will be out very soon. Looking forward to the results!

[dave444] 31/10/2019 14:24

Diamond I appreciate what you are saying but as usual delays occur!You remember a few months ago they said results by end of 3rd quarter or start of 4th.Then revised later to 4th quarter.I would not be surprised if we have to wait to December

[diamondstar1] 31/10/2019 12:01

Hi Dave,
My projections are for an early Nov - mid November release of study results. This is based on the following information. On 28 Aug 2019, Evgen announced that Last Patient, Last Study Visit (LPLSV) had already taken place. This means that all data in the study would have been collected. Then there is a process of gathering all the data, putting it into tables and listings, raising queries on the data. Finally, this process ends with the Database Lock (DBL) whereby no further changes are allowed. This process usually takes 4-6 weeks after LPLSV. Hence, that takes us mid-October (assuming 6 weeks for DBL). From DBL, Evgen and their KOLs would be busy evaluating the study data (i.e. the 3 Primary Outcome Measures & 5 Secondary Outcome Measures) and getting ready for the press release and study result presentations. This process of evaluating the data should take anywhere between 2-4 weeks. Therefore, my estimate indicates that the results should be out anytime from Nov 1st till mid-Nov. Of course, there could be slight delays, for example, if there are additional data queries or analysis of the study results are difficult, which may delay disclosure by ~2 weeks. However, you must remember that the study has been going on for several years, and the study has only 89 evaluable patients. Hence, when Evgen announced on 28 Aug 2019 that LPLSV had taken place - most of the study data would already have been collected on majority of patients, and it was simply gathering the last bits of data from the last few patients. This would likely minimise data queries at the end.

[waterloo01] 31/10/2019 11:59

lol. Rode RENE and sold at 200% up and ditto SLN (still hold a few). Timing, both buying and selling, is rather key as we both know.

[nobbygnome] 31/10/2019 11:53

Good timing waterloo. You are the guru!

[dave444] 31/10/2019 10:48

I assume results will be known in December

[hsm12] 31/10/2019 09:48

Bar is very low here. I think they will make it.

[waterloo01] 31/10/2019 07:44

Nobby, no have very little direct knowledge. Been on my radar and near a read-out, so just a small punt.

[nobbygnome] 30/10/2019 19:26

>> waterloo

Interesting to see you have bought in here. I have a small position but am reticent to buy any more. I don't really have any specific reason like my scientific analysis over at IMM but I guess it's just gut feeling. Are you confident of a good result? I can see much better short term opportunities elsewhere such as STX and SBTX.

[waterloo01] 30/10/2019 19:14

Took a 1st small position today. Some very large trades (not mine). Always value diamondstar1 and Timbo's input. Knowledgeable chaps.

[lovewinshatelosses] 30/10/2019 19:12

Thanks diamondstar.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 18:35

Timbo - the 40% figure I quoted comes from Medscape, and is based on hospitalised SAH patients. The mortality would be even higher considering the 20% who pass away before reaching hospital. Shows you how devastating this disease is.

LWHL - the trial would be of similar duration for the patient. However, the patient numbers would increase. For the pivotal Ph3 Nimodipine trial, N = 554. This would mean that you will need more sites and countries running the study. How fast the Ph3 study is run will depend on how much money you have, as you could set up more sites/countries. Obviously, a licensing deal with a Pharma partner would be ideal.

[lovewinshatelosses] 30/10/2019 17:38

Does anyone know approximately how long phase 3 would likely take, in the event all goes well here and such things become applicable - or it that a piece of string question?

[timbo003] 30/10/2019 16:54

The last few posts remind me of something SF mentioned at one of the investor meetings a few months ago i.e. don't confuse the overall mortality (30-40%) for SAH with mortality in hospitalised patients (which is a significantly lower figure), because around 20% of patients with SAH never make it (alive) to hospital for treatment.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 16:15

Good post Nelson. Evaluable subjects - this is also known from a statistical perspective as the Per Protocol Set (PPS). These are patients who have 1)Completed a minimum predefined observational period 2)Have measurements for the Primary Outcome 3)Have not met criteria for Major Protocol Violations. Usually, you get a few patients who do not make it to the PPS. Hence, this could explain the potential discrepancy between 9.5% and 16%. Hence, mortality could be closer to 10% (as per figure at 71% enrollment) or slightly higher, and you may also have a few % of patients excluded from the final analysis (example, due to major protocol violations or incomplete data).

[90005nelson] 30/10/2019 15:46

That's interesting figures, I've also read 107 patients recruited with 89 being evaluable. Which I took as 16% mortality rate.

[diamondstar1] 30/10/2019 14:55

That's great information you've posted L0ngterm! Overall mortality with 71% patients - at 9.5% is VERY low, compared to overall mortality rates for SAH in general, near 30-40%. Hence, it looks to me like more healthy patients were enrolled (i.e. patients with reduced conscious state/coma or severe hemiplegia excluded). This is promising - to maximise potential effects on Rankin Score, which is a Secondary Outcome Measure.