Emmerson Share Discussion Threads

[rajawali] 01/7/2021 08:13

In June 2019, Highfield Resources were placed in a trading halt.
News of the environmental permit for the Muga project was released.
Within three sessions, the price had popped over 50%
And this was in a bear market for potash.
A broad basket of potash-hungry soft commodities is up well over 50% since then.

[puzzler2] 01/7/2021 07:54

So far as the ESIA is concerned, Graham Clark made clear in the 24 June RNS that they were "Awaiting final approval to be called for the evaluation meeting by the EECD, expected to be received imminently, subject to COVID restrictions in Morocco". It's out of EML's hands and I think we have to take Graham's word that this can't be too far away. Logically, finance should follow on from that in Q3, as previously advised. Frustrating, yes, but likely to be worth the wait.

[bazildonbond] 01/7/2021 07:33

2nd quarter/H1 been and gone, still no news on Finance and/or ESIA?

[apfindley] 26/6/2021 18:22

Exactly.Ocp could be a perfect offtake partner to secure potash sale. They will then process the sop or mop and sell globally.This will reduce emmersons costs significantly and put the shipping onto ocp too.Also with ocp owning a piece of pie near the middle of khemisset, there is a strategic deal to be done for the benefit of both companies.

[nash19] 26/6/2021 11:32

Don't confuse not not leaving Morocco a reference to OCP being the customer for SOP and MOP with where the fertiliser they make will end up. It won't be sold in Morocco !

[donald pond] 25/6/2021 19:52

Did we notice this one? https://twitter.com/haydenlocke5/status/1407955522507128833?s=21

[rajawali] 25/6/2021 05:17

This, from Andrew Hemphill on Twitter re: Belarus "...What happens next will be fascinating. Expect higher offers in LATAM, SE Asia straight away."

[pensionplanner] 24/6/2021 16:24

Cottoner, that would suit me, but it means they would be concentrating on SOP, as Morocco in common with many other countries of similar climate would require less chlorine.

SOP although costing more to produce has a significant premium over Potassium Chloride.

Although even in the February 2021 presentation it shows the potential for export to Brazil with compelling financial stats.

Doesn't hurt to have all kept in Morocco, with Brazil there if we need it.

[cottoner] 24/6/2021 11:52

Graham Clarke Presentation April 7 2021



2mins 30sec in

"Reality is the product will probably stay a lot closer to home"


22mins

"the likelihood of it ever leaving Morocco is fairly slim in reality"

[pensionplanner] 24/6/2021 11:08

cottoner. Emmerson do contemplate exports from Morocco hence their comments about using the Port of Casablanca.

Likewise there is Potash (Potassium Chloride) but where Emmerson have indicate that Potassium Sulphate will also be produced where Middle Eastern and arid countries require less chlorine as do fruit growers.

Any SOP is likely to find its way to the Moroccan and African market, where there is fantastic potential for agricultural development, but where Emmerson suggested in the past the export market is likely to be Brazil, but not exclusively.

Not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs, and many of you probably already know this, but I found it helpful so others may.

Potassium Chloride (KCl or MOP)
Potassium Chloride, commonly known as MOP, is the most abundant form of potash and thus is the most commonly utilised potassium fertiliser. It consists of 60% K2O and 47% Cl. It is particularly effective when used in the commercial cultivation of the carbohydrate crops including wheat, oats, and barley. MOP is composed of potassium and chloride in the forms of charged atoms, and therefore in the form of a salt which is soluble in water. Chloride can however be harmful to some sensitive crops and detrimental in acidic soils. MOP has a total global market size of approximately 55-60 million tonnes per annum.

Potassium Sulphate (K2SO4 or SOP)
Potassium Sulphate, commonly known as SOP, is the second major form of potash. It consists of 50% K2O and 17.5% S. It is particularly effective in the cultivation of fruits, vegetables, berries, potatoes, beans, cocoa, tobacco and tree nuts. SOP contains less than 1% chloride, but importantly does contain sulphur which is a secondary macronutrient utilised by the plant for growth. Sulphur deficient soils are a growing problem within the agriculture sector. As such SOP attracts a price premium over MOP of between 40% to 100%. SOP has a total global market size of approximately 6 million tonnes per annum.

Potassium Nitrate (KNO3)
Potassium Nitrate is a speciality form of potash. It consists of 44% K2O and 13% N. It is used in crops that are sensitive to chloride and require the addition of nitrogen. Potassium Nitrate has a total global market size of approximately 1.4 million tonnes per annum.

Sulphate of Potash Magnesia (SOPM)
Sulphate of Potash Magnesia is a speciality fertiliser. It consists of 28% K2O and 10% MgO, and 16% S. It is used in high value crops. Sulphate of Potash Magnesia has a total global market size of approximately 1.3 million tonnes per annum.

The tonnages here do not represent the potential, as arid land is more suitable for SOP, and fruit growing even in Morocco is becoming more and more export driven, requiring more and more SOP, and that's true of Africa, Asia and arid regions.

Of late some crops that are in vogue such as Avocados, that also prefer SOP, are so valuable that organised crime gangs are making more money by stealing the crops than distributing drugs etc.

[yasyas1] 24/6/2021 09:49

Excellent update. All on course imo. Possibly lsst chance to get in at these prices as once we get permit it should jump as with finance. Gla

[mesb48] 24/6/2021 09:28

brief mention on VSA podcast, 7 mins in.

hxxps://soundcloud.com/user-596578261/5mmm-20210624-084443-meeting-recording

[cottoner] 24/6/2021 09:25

EML do not expect the potash to leave Morocco - presumably OCP.

[rajawali] 24/6/2021 09:16

PP - JSC Belaruskali use the Lithuanian port, clearly not EML. The Belarus supply, when cut off from the cheaper logistics option then becomes less competitive to countries that have not sanctioned this supply e.g. Brazil/ Africa.

It's unsure what quantum and for how long this may impact potash prices but it does magnify the location and geopolitical advantage EML has - a fact that is handy to have when nailing down cornerstone partners and banks.

[cyberbub] 24/6/2021 09:15

The Belarusian mines should be able to divert their output via Russia but it is longer so will increase costs a little bit, and also take time to set up logistics.

[cyberbub] 24/6/2021 09:13

I understand that cash costs for Emmerson are not that low, as the grade is lower than other producers. But the location and infrastructure lead to a very competitive CFR cost to key markets.

[pensionplanner] 24/6/2021 09:07

tightfist. Agree it will help Emmerson.

Likewise some who reference Sirius alongside Emmerson, where the modus operandi are so different, as is the viability with Emmerson having the potential to provide good profits from its relative low cost extraction.

[tightfist] 24/6/2021 08:54

Hi PP, I read this info as disruptive to the global Potash market supply chain and thus helpful to EML. Just not sure about the disruption longevity, but IMHO can only help progress the funding discussions?

[tightfist] 24/6/2021 08:50

I liked this morning's update, for the patient LTH this reads as a very well-run project..I particularly appreciated this out-take: ".....The Company can confirm that there are several interested groups, any one of which could have a transformational effect on the overall financing of the Project. The Board is hopeful of being in a position to provide a more substantial update on this, as well as the Project debt and broader financing process in H2 2021"..Cheers tightfist

[pensionplanner] 24/6/2021 08:49

The JSC Belaruskali sanctions will have no negative effect on Emmerson. If anything it will be a positive as potash buyers will if subject to rules on sanctions avoid buying from JSC Belaruskali.

Yes, Lithuania is observing sanctions against JSC, who represent 20% of the port handling at Kleipeda, but why would Emmerson want to use a port in Lithuiania. The reason JSC use it, is because of its proximity to Belarus.

JSC produce via the Starobin salts deposits in Belarus so it has little option but to use Lithuania! It does not as far as I know produce in Morocco, so the reference to the Lithuanian ports?

Emmerson has already considered the relevant port and I believe Port of Casablanca has been suggested.

If anything it will enhance other producers positions, as more and more customers will have to buy potash elsewhere.

[rajawali] 24/6/2021 03:52

apfindley. Totally agree. Not only is the potash there... it is not in Belarus.

JSC Belaruskali, responsible for 20% of the world's potash fertilisers and with 120 countries as export clients, is now SANCTIONED by the EU, US, Britain and Canada, along with 15 other Belarussian organisation. This includes a transit ban, so the cheap option through the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda (utilising a loading terminal 30% owned by Belaruskali) is not available.

[apfindley] 23/6/2021 16:45

Are you in a hurry for something?Relax.This isn't an oilie with a red or black outcome. The potash is there waiting for emmerson. Time paused here for the financing has actually strengthened our hand and made the economics even stronger too.

[trying2getrichquick] 23/6/2021 12:21

The suspense (waiting for this damn RNS) is killing me....