Emis Share Discussion Threads

[1c3479z] 06/4/2023 20:54

no sign the bid is being dropped;
dividends to be paid during the phase 2 investigation.

[gopher] 03/4/2023 22:28

United Health 4% up today. I guess it depends on advice here but a withdrawal of bid looking likely outcome.

[gopher] 31/3/2023 18:47

My understanding is that whilst prices are determined nationally ,it's your local CCG who have the budget and pay the bills and they are GP governed. Apologies it's not really an area of expertise but the NHS centrally is not providing the IT service hence their is a certain cynicism about what NHS Digital actually contribute. EMIS themselves offer a cloud based service for the EPR.

[wad collector] 31/3/2023 15:24

Gopher , I have used EMIS for 30 yrs. There was an initial cost before primary care IT took off , but we have not paid for it for at least 25 yrs. We pay for a few third party software items , but a lot of them are also funded centrally. GPs were given a choice of providers and gradually the list has shortened. NHS England provides almost all our hardware too.
Changing IT suppliers is very disruptive to a practice and rarely done , hence part of the attraction of EMIS. There is a high bar to entry in the market.

[gopher] 31/3/2023 14:16

I agree c3479z1. It does look perverse since UH look to have addressed the prior stated concern directly. The CMAs job is not to protect British firms and their customers from foreign takeovers otherwise Cadbury amongst others would still be British owned.

[c3479z1] 31/3/2023 13:08

guess it's about the value of data in an era if big data, artificial intelligence.
Seems perverse if they've addressed the CMA phase 1 query directly.
would have thought EMIS is not bad value below 1400 considering its market position and obvious attractions to an acquirer.
That's if the proposed merger hasn't meant the management took their eyes off the ball this last year.
Phase 2 can last up to 24 weeks so further uncertainty also.

[gopher] 31/3/2023 12:27

I think you will find that prices are negotiated centrally for the GPs and GPs can only purchase through these contracts. IT is not a free lunch for them.

[wad collector] 31/3/2023 12:17

Gopher, GPs don't pay for EMIS nor it's rivals. IT costs are paid centrally ; though you may be right that the concern is a rise in prices.

[gopher] 31/3/2023 11:40

Very little on the CMA website. Of course the real reason is that EMIS has a very big share of the primary care EPR market and if it falls into US hands then that probably won't be good financial news for GPs. I don't know that is a reason for competition markets authority to reject the bid.

[gopher] 31/3/2023 11:16

mmm - an offer to divest the business isn't good enough for the CMA although this isn't a rejection which the share price implies today. I shall read through their reasons. Personally think NHS Digital dislikes the deal and that has swayed the outcome.

[wad collector] 31/3/2023 11:06

Well that is a bombshell for holders. Them market appears to price it as dead in the water , though the wording does leave an opening.

I have always liked EMIS as a holding and just bought back some of my holding for 1380p.

[bulltradept] 31/3/2023 08:23

If you are throwing 100k positions around, more likely to be a fund manager.

[wad collector] 30/3/2023 15:47

Someone just bought 100k @1820p. They presumably don't think the price will crash tomorrow.

[wad collector] 28/3/2023 20:43

If the UH bid is blocked by the CMA , it seems likely that other would-be bidders would be hit by the same problem, as it is not because UH are a competitor.
Yes EMIS has been a good AIM share but why would it be valued above the pre-bid prices that were around £14?
That is 78% of todays closing price.
Personally I would be happy if they remain an AIM share and I will buy them back if I can.

[c3479z1] 27/3/2023 18:45

wad

if the takeover falls through, the share price would likely fall back by maybe 15-20% initially but others might be interested in what is a particularly solid company with a commanding market position by AIM standards and as a standalone company on AIM it ticks most of the boxes for BR for IHT. The loss from AIM if the company were taken over would be serious. There are not many AIM others with such a solid position as far as I can see.
UH is an enormous outfit so their acquisition would be small beer by their standards.

[wad collector] 27/3/2023 14:39

I don't think EMIS is going to pay a dividend ; it would have made that announcement with the results, and UH made it clear that they were not paying any more dividends as part of their offer beyond the last year's one.
It appears from the share price that "the market" is not confident the takeover will happen given the current 135p gap. The CMA may not give a firm decision on Thursday , in which case I think the share price will drop a little further. If they approve, presumably the price will bounce to not far short of 1925p.
I got rid of mine a few months ago when I couldn't see much upside, but I suspect there are quite a lot of PIs who may wish to take a Capital Gain in this tax year before the relief drops to £5k next year, so are debating whether to take the current price.

[stuffee] 25/3/2023 12:43

Thanks Gopher for your valuable observation re UH.

I would like to think that after 9 months of detailed negotiations, research and no doubt endless reports to the CMA, UH won't give up now but pursue remedies to satisfy the CMA's concerns. UH's offer, as announced last June, was 1925p and in adddition it can pay a dividend of 22p, normally payable in May (ex date of 16 April last year). Current share prices generally not much different from June 2022 levels (FTSE 7,000/ 7,500). Most unlikely that the Take-over panel would allow any attempt to reduce price. There is reasonable upside from present price of 1800p if the CMA can be satisfied and the acquisition completes.

I guess the price could fall to its pre bid level of c £14 (prospective PE of around 22) if UH can not provide suitable remedies and the offer lapses. EMIS has made commitment to recommend an offer at 1925p, and this might be invitation to other third parties who might be interested in acquiring EMIS. 80% of its revenue is recurring, which makes it highly attractive to any finacial buyer. Hopefully EMIS willl not have suffered from the uncertainty of the CMA investigation over recent months; its recent trading statements seemed reassuring.

The CMA has to determine the acceptability of UH's undertakings by 31 March, when EMIS should hopefully annnounce progress.

[gopher] 24/3/2023 15:41

NHS Digital objections are around an API into the core EMIS patient data contained on in the EPR system. They have spec,d some standards already but the allegation is that the process to let third parties (UH is one currently) have access would slow for other 3rd parties to give advantage to UH.This is always possible but the API is not widely used and I don't see UH ownership making much difference

[wad collector] 23/3/2023 19:25

So UH has to have submitted a plan today and there is a week for CMA to reach a conclusion.

[gopher] 23/3/2023 11:10

Reading the document I can't believe that United Health will have any problems, what's clear is that NHS digital doesn't want this to go ahead.