EF Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 06/9/2018 16:30

77.75p, holding reasonably steady, still no volume in LONE.

[spectoacc] 30/8/2018 16:34

79.4p, that's more like it. Spoke to the co earlier in the week (my previous contact having been away a fortnight). Probably shouldn't post reply on here but message me if want info - obviously not a great deal was said.

[spectoacc] 23/8/2018 16:39

c.74p, down a penny - understand that one as much as the 75p one of last week, since LONE's gone up. Volume still derisory so doubt any exiting has occurred, but good to see LONE & the oil price recovering.

[spectoacc] 22/8/2018 07:00

Starting to wonder! No news on the other two holdings either. All that can change quite quickly I guess, but could do with some news.

[kenmitch] 21/8/2018 22:06

And Lonestar up another 3% today, but strongly agree re wishing they would sell. Can’t see cash return by next month, can you?

[spectoacc] 21/8/2018 10:25

LONE up 7.5% yesterday but still no suggestion of EFR existing from the volume, nor have there been any SEC Filings for major shareholder changes.

Still - just yesterday's move worth c.5% onto the LONE NAV I reckon. But I do wish they'd sell!

[spectoacc] 17/8/2018 08:09

last night's reported NAV c.75p, seems about right, LONE done little since. Still no evidence of any selling but would be perfectly happy with 75p, assuming they've genuinely valued LONE as per likely sale discount. NAV feels a bit opaque - will feel better with cash in hand, and clock is ticking :)

[kenmitch] 10/8/2018 17:53

Very interesting information SpectoAcc; thanks for posting it. 80p would indeed be marvellous and I’d be happy with 70p. Hoping that on trade wars compromise (as has already happened once with Europe) will occur. Trump won’t want US markets to fall too heavily as he is taking the credit for the big gains. And elections ahead. And he changes his mind frequently, so quite hopeful common sense will win out. At present markets are saying US will win a trade war, but reality is that there are no winners.

[spectoacc] 10/8/2018 07:23

Thanks @kenmitch. I'm p*ssing in the wind to some extent, but I've seen no filings suggesting they've sold any LONE, nor much indication in the volume, nor do I think (with two directors on the LONE board) that they could have sold into the spike pre-results, which as you say is a pity.

However, they have said:

"-- Adjusts this valuation to account for illiquidity or volatility considerations.....Adjusted for factors likely to affect the amount that could be realised including the size of the holding relative to observable liquidity which the Board believes is a more reasonable estimate of the value under the break-up basis..;"

That suggests they're already valuing LONE in the NAV based on a discount to the 5-day weighted average price. Finger-in-wind stuff, but does give me hope that "what you see is what you get" where the NAV is concerned, and 80p+ would be marvelous.

You're correct about "not set in stone" but if they did want to add say 6 months to the life of the co, they're running out of time to arrange the vote. I'm hoping the plan they had at the last Half Yearly Report is still in place, despite a seeming lack of action since.

Suspect LONE is more exposed to the weaker price of oil (on Trump's trade wars) than to the market knowing EFR has to sell, but that could well have more effect into September as the deadline looms.

[kenmitch] 09/8/2018 19:23

Also surprised to see NAV up!

Lonestar has dropped around 20% from recent high and was down over 1% just now.

Wish they had taken the opportunity to sell higher. Market must know they are looking to sell. Presumably that’s not helping the share price.

I’d be happier with a delay than selling Lonestar at depressed price. Don’t think next month is set in stone?

Do keep the updates coming SpectoAcc. They’re always worth reading.

[spectoacc] 09/8/2018 16:32

81.5p, it's gone up! Could be the little spike LONE had on results day (+10%), but generally looks good. If we got anywhere near 80p back in the next 6 weeks, I'd be delighted.

[spectoacc] 09/8/2018 09:17

LONE down 9% last night (presumably on oil weakness, itself on more Trump tariffs), but can only see c.400k shares traded - doesn't imply EFR are actually selling yet.

Next NAV due after close today - expecting c.77p but as always, reserve the right to edit :)

[spectoacc] 08/8/2018 07:26

LONE closed up 5% but volume is back to being minimal, say half a million shares total, vs the 4.1m+ that LONE hold. Just not sure atm.

[spectoacc] 07/8/2018 08:42

LONE gave up most of its gain yesterday, tho still finished marginally up. Decent volume but still fewer than 1m in total traded - LONE held 4.1m shares at last calculation.

Don't know when EFR would have to report that they were selling - I still reckon they are, now that results are out the way/any closed period is over (having two directors on the board of LONE).

Awaiting any news.

[spectoacc] 06/8/2018 15:02

LONE reads well to me, tho to be fair, these things usually do.

I'd expect EFR to be selling into this rise - they only have 6 weeks or so after all - but it's only my guess:



Edit - LONE up 10% and back to $10 on that, which looks a correct move on the results, but no volume as yet to suggest EFR exiting. We'll see.

[spectoacc] 02/8/2018 16:34

79p NAV, looks about right - LONE hasn't been doing much, currently unchanged today at $9.17. Sterling also not moved much on today's rate rise. So 79p NAV implies to me that they've not sold any LONE yet, and I'm back to my theory that they'll sell post-results, which I believe are due next week on LONE. No idea when they'll sell the remaining two holdings but as they've got all of 8 weeks to do it, so it'll have to be soon.

Still difficult to say what they'll get for 11% of LONE - depends on the results, but is possible won't be too much of a discount. Even if it is, you'd fancy with current NAV at 79p, ecently having been over 90p (by my guesstimate!), that we'll get back a decent sum. Downside from here, as I've said before, looks limited.

All speculation until LONE is booted out. Fingers crossed they have good results.

[spectoacc] 27/7/2018 06:37

@kenmitch - I should have kept a spreadsheet of LONE's daily close, but never have, and now it feels too late to start :) But it's possible 85.6p has no adjustments/sales in it after all. As you say, LONE closed up last night to end the losing streak, and hopefully will at least hold current level.

Wriggle room - yes indeed - but this is what they said last month:

"Your Board's current expectation is that all the material investments will be realised no later than the second anniversary of the listing of the Company's shares on the London Stock Exchange, that is, by 26 September 2018, such that the Company is on course to be put into liquidation on or prior to that date."

They can change that view of course, but as at that point had no intention of organising a continuation vote, which they'd need to extend the life of the co beyond 26th Sept.

[kenmitch] 26/7/2018 16:46

Great posts SpectoAcc.

I monitor Lonestar share price closely (up a bit just now) and like you had been expecting them to report a lower NAV today. Whatever the reason for the surprise NAV increase it's very welcome and good chance of further EFR share price increase tomorrow.

You say "at most 2 months" but I had thought they were allowing themselves some wriggle room and September not a deadline date and just an ambition. Is that wrong?

[spectoacc] 26/7/2018 16:35

85.6p! Unless I've misunderstood how they calculate it (weighted average price of LONE over the 5 preceeding working days, ie Thurs open to Weds close), then that may imply they've sold some and not yet declared it. Volume suggests otherwise though.

Last week's NAV RNS encompassed the steep rise to $11; this week's should encompass the descent back to $9.40. That being the case, I don't see why NAV's gone up so much (though my "real time" NAV at the LONE peak was well over 90p, and hence real time now would be below 85.6p).

Good news whatever. Another possible explanation is an increase in one of the other two holdings, ie what they're negotiating to sell for.

As ever, what they actually achieve for selling 11% of LONE is the key - possibly only weeks to find out, and at most 2 months, with a fair bit of leeway with EFR at 70p.

[spectoacc] 26/7/2018 16:05

They couldn't really do that due to the tiny holdings many people inherited from the ECWO split - mainly got shares in EGL with a small number of EFR on top. An even smaller number of US-listed LONE may not have gone down well!

LONE been weaker this week - currently c.$9.30 - so expecting a lower NAV to be reported at close today. Still see no indication that EFR have been selling but as I've said before, I think they'll wait until LONE results in early Aug.

[actofwill] 24/7/2018 16:40

Thanks SpectoAcc.

Re LONE I think they should distribute those in kind if they can only get a discounted bid to market. This would be the cleanest route out.

[spectoacc] 24/7/2018 08:18

@ActOfWill - fair question. Mainly by what they recently said in RNS:

"..Discussions are underway for each asset which should enable the Company to accomplish this goal and return the value to Shareholders in the coming months.."

"The goal" being Sept winding up. They also don't expect (but can't say for sure) that they'll have to extend the life of the co. Hence they seem fairly confident of getting shot of eg the water assets, and the price at which they'll do so, as shown by:

"The Company values its unquoted investments based on third-party valuations or valuation techniques typically used to value such investments and may also apply a further discount for illiquidity or deduct estimated expenses to realise any investment in deriving the carrying value to include in the Company's net asset value. "

So by my reckoning, they adjust the value of the two unquoted, non-LONE holdings, to reflect both sale costs and what they're in discussions to sell them for. Hence not expecting any surprises, up or down, for that c.20p of NAV, They don't expect any value from the written-down remainder of portfolio, & nor do I.

Should also add there was c.£2m of cash for "working capital" in that "c.20p", & further mitigates the risk of a penny either way on the other two.

Hence for me it's really a bet on what they get for LONE - and if they get a fair bit less than the current $10/share, it could still be a profit on where they're trading now (though should also add I've bought no more since about 54p). And if LONE keeps rising.... Downside limited, upside hopefully from here.

[actofwill] 24/7/2018 08:05

Hi SpectoAcc, why do you think that 20p is so nailed down? Except for cash, I understood those water assets are the ones they have been selling for ages?

[spectoacc] 24/7/2018 07:58

@kenmitch - well, you're up a good 15% already so it was a good call!

I like to look at it in terms of downside - c.25% of the NAV looks fairly nailed on (say 20p), so what chance is there of the price achieved for LONE being sufficiently low to put me into loss - pretty slim I'd say, it isn't going bust (now!) & they're not going to give it away.

So with losses unlikely (and limited), what chance of even more upside.. And that's against a NAV I've estimated at 80p+ (pre discount to offload 11% of LONE).

[kenmitch] 23/7/2018 11:39

Thanks SpectoAcc.

All very useful.

Agree that now would be a good time to sell in to the rise.... but better still if the gains continue and they can sell at not too big a discount. I only bought recently at 58p. It’s such an unusual Trust and with so much hanging on the performance of one very large holding. So obviously not the usual well diversified set up but even for latecomers it might still be a good, if risky, winner.