EF Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[asmodeus] 17/1/2018 07:46

How do day-traders cope? To buy efr now, although I have a holding already, I have to download the “kid”from their website - and so does my Broker (Redmayne Bentley),and they will not let me deal until they are convinced that I have understood all the risks etc.! Apparently this is another nanny stipulation by Europe.

[spectoacc] 15/1/2018 12:46

Probably MIFID-related - have to fill in a form saying how much trading experience you have. Has been a real pain - XO are making me fill in a form for each class of "unusual" security (the likes of EFR, covered warrants etc).

[spectoacc] 15/1/2018 10:51

Only me here, but from last week on LONE:

"Frank D. Bracken, III, Lonestar's Chief Executive Officer commented, "Closing our Notes offering and amending our Senior Secured Credit Facility (collectively, "the Transactions") represent the culmination of our efforts to financially reposition Lonestar. First, the Transactions meaningfully extend the profile of both our secured and unsecured debt maturities. Second, the Transactions greatly expand our liquidity to approximately $100 million. Looking to 2018, we are now fully focused on executing our plan to increasing annual average production to 10,000-10,700 BOE per day and increasing EBITDAX by approximately 60% to $100-$110 million. This growth is expected to reduce our Net Debt / EBITDAX ratio to below 3.0x by year-end 2018. Most importantly, Lonestar is now positioned to increase shareholder value by driving up production, reserves and cash flow on a per-share basis." "

[spectoacc] 11/1/2018 16:30

49.52p, I was close! And LONE still holding above $5, so expecting that NAV to go higher.

As always - EFR being able to actually sell their stake eventually is the key.

[spectoacc] 08/1/2018 16:10

LONE up another 10% in US this morning, approaching $5 - arguably only relevant when EFR actually sell, but is going to make the NAV figs look good over the next week or so.

Edit - not done the maths but I'd have thought 50p+ here, though will take a while to be reflected in the figures.

Edit #2 - I'd also forgotten about the convertibles in LONE, convertible at $6, which is likely to be a ceiling to the current rally. EFR get diluted from c.17% to c.11% if/when the convertibles convert.

[spectoacc] 03/1/2018 08:33

@flyfisher - LONE up a $ since the debt rescheduling news, so your analysis appears wrong - luckily for me :) I'd bloody deserve it if EFR finally sell out & return more than current s/p, for the endless faith I've shown. NAV was more like 80p/share when they split from ECWO, vs high 30's recently, and it's been a long & bumpy ride thus far.

Of course, whether EFR can actually sell that many LONE is another question.. But glad to see LONE finally on the up.

[flyfisher] 30/12/2017 13:13

I doubt any rise is on the cards for LONE, and question whether the equity is of any value as the debt holders seem to be running it, to their own ends.

The recent rescheduling of the 2019 bonds, a year early and at a 2.5% increase in coupon gives a $6.25 pa increase in servicing costs and the existing debt to be made whole a year early.

I can only see this as a negative for equity holders, and a positive for debt holders, who seem to be stripping the future cash flows.

[spectoacc] 29/12/2017 08:26

These haven't been my finest buy - one of my worst really, with plenty bought over 40p - but some back in the tender and now buying a few more below 29p. The NAV discount isn't so great (c.41p NAV) but wondering if LONE may soon start to finally rise a bit with the oil price. Either way, downside is zero if LONE goes under :)

[spectoacc] 11/10/2017 14:03

Been a bit of a recovery on Lonestar with the oil price, but nothing significant. EFR tick-up may be a realisation that post-cash return, they're even more LONE-geared (only at a discount).

Makes the silly MM drop to 25p look what it was - silly.

Still - LONE needs realising before the proper money comes in.

[linhur] 25/9/2017 22:27

So 5.7p distribution on all 7 shares but lose 40p value on 1 share. We shall see on Friday

[spectoacc] 25/9/2017 09:27

My understanding is that if you owned 7 shares previously, you now own only 6 shares but will be getting 40.07p for the share that was redeemed.

That could also be looked at as getting back 5.7p per share (40p/7), but with 1 in 7 shares now disappeared, that doesn't seem the right way to think of it.

[linhur] 25/9/2017 09:14

Can someone clarify the redemption proceeds to be paid on Friday?
Is it 40p per share (1 for 7 of original holding) or is it 5.7p or 27.7p which my Sipp provider is expecting ?

Kind regards

Linhur

[spectoacc] 20/9/2017 08:52

MMs now realised. Pity their error didn't allow a top-up, just a comedy spread.

[neilyb675] 18/9/2017 15:47

company ought to issue NAV RNS imo

[spectoacc] 18/9/2017 12:47

Not sure why the MMs have blown the spread out - it's a redemption, shouldn't be any change to price.

[spectoacc] 04/9/2017 10:54

Nav 40p surely - & 1-for-7 redemption to return c.£3m at that price.

Have to say, it's chicken feed until Lonestar stake can be ditched - they've constantly regarded it as being worth much more than the market thinks, whilst the Lonestar price has continued going backwards. $8 seems a long way off now.

Still - they'd say they're doing what they said they would at the start. I'd say that keeping £1.6m for "working capital" seems a bit rich.

[spectoacc] 20/7/2017 16:33

General lack of anything going on - have to wait until 12th Sept until the AGM, and no certainty any progress by then either.

On the plus side - LONE is still around.

[spectoacc] 06/6/2017 12:18

@flyfisher - LONE did that placing a few months ago (the first time EFR got diluted) and at higher prices than here. Hopefully as LONE scales up, EFR can find a buyer. "Hopefully".

Potentially EFR could end up with as little as 11% after current deal, from over 50% on the ECWO split, so should in theory be much easier to shift, even in the absence of selling the lot to the same person.

[flyfisher] 06/6/2017 12:10

Lonestar was close to breaching its banking covenants, its options were to raise funds, or raise funds and acquire assets that could bring its banking covenants back to a more comfortable level. It did the latter.

Question is, who can EFR sell its stake to.

[neilyb675] 06/6/2017 11:26

Okay, just that I view my EFR holding as high risk, and very much a long term play on oil price recovering at some point in future.

Do you personally rate Lonestar or have anything else which backs your significant holding percentage. I'm not criticising - just curious.