EF Realisation Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 22/7/2018 07:52

Thanks @kenmitch - valid point. "What goes up" etc. EFR have always claimed LONE to be very undervalued compared to their peers - latest big rise (which has come despite a lower oil price) must have brought them back in line. I slightly wish they were selling into this rise.

On the plus side - EFR have seats on the LONE board, so in theory, if bad news was coming, they ought to know about it. Whether that would let them sell is unlikely, but it might have let them tweak the EFR NAV. Plus, if there was bad news on eg drilling or production, I doubt this big rise would have occurred.

Either way - LONE is now c.75% of EFR's NAV, so the price they finally achieve will have a big effect on what we get back.

On the plus side - if I'm right about current NAV, there's a fair bit of leeway in the EFR price already.

What EFR said in early June when LONE was $7:

"Lonestar's management continues to believe that its high quality assets and strengthened balance sheet are not well reflected in Lonestar's equity market valuation. Not only is Lonestar's share price (at $7.08 per share on 6 June 2018) trading at approximately 37% of the value indicated by the independent valuation of its proved and probable reserves, but Lonestar's shares stand on low trading multiples compared to its quoted peers that operate in the Eagle Ford shale basin or are smaller oil focussed US E&P companies. Lonestar's proved reserves are valued at just $7.6 per barrel of oil equivalent compared to its quoted peers whose proved reserves are valued at $11.4 per barrel of oil equivalent. Moreover, Lonestar's shares currently trade at an enterprise value equivalent to approximately 4.9 times analysts' estimates of 2018 EBITDA, while quoted peers trade at an average of 6.4 times EBITDA."

Also worth noting - particularly the "..Each asset..", which includes LONE. And they were dead right about LONE s/p! ::

"Your Board's and Investment Manager's focus is on realising the carrying values of the three significant remaining investments in the portfolio. Discussions are underway for each asset which should enable the Company to accomplish this goal and return the value to Shareholders in the coming months. Moreover, Lonestar's management is executing on a business plan that it believes will enhance its attractiveness to investors and drive an increase in its share price, which would raise the Company's NAV."

[kenmitch] 21/7/2018 08:55

Very useful posts SpectoAcc so do keep posting. I only woke up to and bought EFR a few weeks ago, and then only because EFR featured in IT biggest winner lists and was wondering why. Clearly a LOT hangs on the LONE share price. So presumably their results next month could be make or break time? After such a fast gain a risk presumably that even very good results are already priced in, and even minor disappointment likely to hit share price? Don’t know much about LONE other than share price is rocketing!

[spectoacc] 21/7/2018 07:23

LONE back 7.8% yesterday, but that's only two percentage points beyond what it gained on Thurs alone, so by my est "real" NAV slips back to, erm, c.85p.

What's becoming clear to me is that they're not going to sell it until after the earnings release in early Aug - and having seats on the board, maybe that's a requirement.

Going to attempt to talk to myself less on here ;)

[spectoacc] 20/7/2018 13:31

If anyone (is there anyone?) wants to take a better stab at NAV: am assuming the unlisted two stay at the same price throughout, so it's the LONE price a week last Thurs, Fri, Mon, Tue, Wed, averaged. Then a calculation for what % of assets LONE actually is now - obviously moving with the price.

Then add on 5.3% (in that same ratio of assets) for yesterday's rise, to get to an "actual" NAV figure, then a guesstimate of what discount is required to flog 11% of LONE. Sale costs should be in there already.

Then complicated by when they actually sell - could be another 2 months of LONE movement, up or down (or up and down).

LONE was 52% of EFR when it was trading at $4.34 for eg (now $10.91). So now around 73%?

Also some minor tweaks for US/Aus$ changes, and larger tweak for £/$ (going our way atm).

I guesstimate a "real time" NAV of c.90p atm, and payout within 3 months (hopefully) of c.80p. Obviously where LONE goes from here, and what they can realise for it, can make a massive difference, but at least the endgame is close now.

[spectoacc] 19/7/2018 16:04

Excitedly awaiting the 16.30 NAV RNS but whatever it is, LONE up another 6% so far this afternoon - just touched $11, having been $9 only a few days ago.

What can go up can come down as fast, and there's the small matter of flogging 11% of the co, but whatever EFR's reported NAV in half an hour's time, it's already higher in real time.

Edit: wow, 80.95p. I'd say "real time" is above 85p then, based on the 5-day smoothing to get to today's figure, and the further 7% rise that LONE is currently showing.

[spectoacc] 19/7/2018 07:53

Another 4% on LONE last night. I expect "real" (not smoothed) NAV to be over 80p now, with return expected (but not guaranteed) within 3 months. But as ever - all depends what price they can achieve in the next few months for 11% of LONE. (Not to mention the other two holdings that still have value, tho since they're not listed, have to trust that they've valued them as they've claimed - at the realistic price they'll get for them).

It's been a long road - a very long road - but starting to glimpse the wizard's castle (not a euphemism)..

[spectoacc] 18/7/2018 08:08

Tried to buy more yesterday but MMs weren't selling - then LONE goes up 10% on volume! Not found out why - oil's come well off highs recently - but could have been a tip. Was hoping the volume was EFR selling out but don't see any indication it is.

Still - EFR NAV will be up yet again, & LONE at new year highs.

Edit - last week's NAV c.72p down from c.74p, not expecting much of a rise in Thursday's RNS as there'll only be a day or two out of 7 of the higher LONE price - maybe back up above highs at say 75p. Reserve the right to edit ;)

[spectoacc] 06/7/2018 14:36

Still ticking up & why not - last (averaged) NAV 73.8p. Still needs a LONE exit but the clock is ticking on capital returns.

[spectoacc] 29/6/2018 15:30

Indeed, though still lower than on Day 1 after the ECWO split! Mind you - think they had over 50% of LONE at that point, vs c.17% now, so ought to be a little easier to shift.

[topvest] 29/6/2018 15:26

Yes, looks like they may be lucky with the timing of exit and strength of oil price. Be nice to get a reasonable exit, before they put this dog down!

[spectoacc] 29/6/2018 15:20

Yesterday's NAV RNS about the same - c.72p - & MMs seem finally to have cut off me buying more cheap.

LONE can go anywhere but with oil remaining strong, I fancy a good exit. Wonder if it'll come around the next LONE results in early Aug.

Not long to wait whatever.

[spectoacc] 22/6/2018 12:19

I'm sure; but they also say their NAV is based on what they'd expect to get for the remaining 3 holdings. Whether that means any LONE discount in reality I don't know. (Also based on avg of last 5 days prices). I still think there's quite a bit of leeway to not lose money from here.

[18bt] 22/6/2018 10:43

Always easy to say in retrospect! They're still going to have to accept a discount to shift the stake I think.

[spectoacc] 22/6/2018 08:57

LONE down 5% last night but have piled into a load more EFR (& moved the bid up). Resolution (ie cash return) should be next 3 months, and tho v. LONE-dependent, the downside doesn't seem large from here. If things go right, there's c.20% in a short timeframe.

[spectoacc] 14/6/2018 21:58

Yes; surprised been no news on any LONE disposal as yet:

"...The Board is pleased with progress on monetising the remaining material investments."

It's good news if they don't see the need for a continuation vote.

[18bt] 14/6/2018 18:23

Still saying they will liquidate by end Sept.

[spectoacc] 14/6/2018 16:31

67p NAV, wow - and LONE a touch higher still.

[spectoacc] 25/5/2018 13:01

Aye all depends how/when they exit. On the plus side - they've a far smaller % than they used to have (due to mergers). On the other, the market knows EFR are a seller.

Always been slightly concerned how much more EFR think LONE is worth - just get out of the damned thing and give me back c.60p/share ;)

A few other holdings to dispose of too, water rights etc, and one or two marked down to zero that may yet be resurrected. Time not on EFR's side but does seem to be in the price.

PS Glad it's not only me on here after all ;)

[18bt] 25/5/2018 12:39

Got round to Lone Q1 results, which were v positive, but EFR 20% discount to NAV feels about right given need to dispose of Lone

[spectoacc] 24/5/2018 16:32

64p NAV as of 23rd, tho Lonestar back a few % since then. Still - what a climb, LONE more than doubled in short space of time & EFR NAV reflected much of that> STILL waiting for some sort of disposal.

[spectoacc] 17/5/2018 16:31

Wow 57.4p NAV - was 42p only a matter of weeks ago - with LONE up again and over $7 today.

They still have to get out of it mind...

[spectoacc] 16/5/2018 15:22

LONE going up daily it seems, over $6 now, but need some corporate action to let EFR exit.

[spectoacc] 14/5/2018 16:51

LONE up another 5%, but as always, need to see EFR actually achieve an exit. Oil price can't be doing it any harm tho.

[spectoacc] 26/4/2018 17:02

49p NAV; LONE finally been on a tear back up, over $5 again last I looked.

[spectoacc] 09/2/2018 08:19

MIFID II - it's infuriating. Often find I can't trade something I'm already in, until I email the broker and they email me back a form. Don't even have to read it now - they enable it as soon as they've sent me it.

I asked them to send me all forms for all stocks, or even just all forms for the stocks I already hold (for the obvious reason that I'll want to trade them at some point, possibly in a hurry): they refused, said I had to request on an individual stock basis.

Anyway... LONE come right back off again in US with the market. Not doing EFR NAV any favours.