Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
EF Realisation LSE:EFR London Ordinary Share GG00BF243Y95 ORD NPV
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 70.50p 0 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.00p 0.00p - - -
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Unknown 31.7

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Date Time Title Posts
09/4/201914:20EF Realisation 192

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kenmitch: looloo1. Did it the obvious way by asking them. It should have been announced as soon as they knew. Don't know why they didn't do that nor why they still haven't. It can't affect the share price now they have delisted. Hope Spec is right about good chance of them getting 22p for the other two, but suspect they might disappoint on that too, and possibly a long wait for that money. Spec. "50p of GRIW?" I bought them for 9p and as posted, as a long term lockaway that will rocket on good news from GRIW... either Government policy when announced not affecting them much or any other positive news. Both share and warrant are unchanged since I bought and both will probably do little until more news. As I explained on GRIO thread the key plus for the warrants is that they will massively outperform the share if the share does well. e.g share only has to go up 10% for the warrant to double and if share goes up 20% the warrant will triple. So instead of tying up a lot of money in the share I've got a modest warrant stake 20000/ £1800 worth which will make far more profit than a £10000 stake in the share. e.g if share goes up 20% then £10000 stake gives £2000 profit But my £1800 warrant stake will go up to £5400 for £3600 profit. So the warrants are a no brainer .... as long as the share goes up before the warrants expire in 2022. Of course the negative for both share and warrant would be bad news. Even then the warrant is the better bet as I'll lose no more than if taking the loss on a much larger share stake. Warrant holders do miss out on the good dividend. Will happily accept that if share does well in time.
spectoacc: This was based on LONE at $8.94 bid price: "-- Qualifying Shareholders would receive the equivalent of 64.0 pence per Share, based on the Lonestar bid share price and the exchange rate at the Latest Practicable Date, by way of a distribution of Lonestar Shares as soon as practicable following the EGM to be held on 24 September 2018, and expected cash proceeds equivalent to 22.1 pence per Share over the course of the liquidation as the unquoted investments are realised over the following six months depending on the ultimate realised value of the investments." Currently $7.97, but LONE could go up or down over the next week or so - oil's been fairly perky.
spectoacc: New out! Won't be of great surprise to anyone who's spoken to the co, though I'm slightly disappointed in the potential realisation going out as far as June. But pleasantly surprised by the potential of c.86p. One thing's for sure - LONE's share price will move around considerably before the end of the month, because it always does, and impact the figures. Still: having seen the volume on LONE, this seems the best way forward. "Based on a Lonestar bid price per share of US$8.94 and foreign exchange rates on the Latest Practicable Date, the impact of the Proposals would be to return to Shareholders an estimated GBP38.7 million or 86.1 pence per Share of value. This is 11% more than the NAV of 77.75 pence per Share on the Latest Practicable Date which reflects the lower expenses that are expected to be incurred in implementing the Proposals than had been allowed for in calculating the NAV as at the Latest Practicable Date. -- Qualifying Shareholders would receive the equivalent of 64.0 pence per Share, based on the Lonestar bid share price and the exchange rate at the Latest Practicable Date, by way of a distribution of Lonestar Shares as soon as practicable following the EGM to be held on 24 September 2018, and expected cash proceeds equivalent to 22.1 pence per Share over the course of the liquidation as the unquoted investments are realised over the following six months depending on the ultimate realised value of the investments. -- Non-Qualifying Shareholders would receive 64.0 pence per Share in cash, based on the Lonestar bid price and the exchange rate on the Latest Practicable Date, as soon as practical following the EGM and a further 22.1 pence per Share in cash over the course of the liquidation as the unquoted investments are realised over the following six months depending on the ultimate realised value of the investments. The liquidation of the Company is expected to be completed by 30 June 2019. "
kenmitch: Also surprised to see NAV up! Lonestar has dropped around 20% from recent high and was down over 1% just now. Wish they had taken the opportunity to sell higher. Market must know they are looking to sell. Presumably that’s not helping the share price. I’d be happier with a delay than selling Lonestar at depressed price. Don’t think next month is set in stone? Do keep the updates coming SpectoAcc. They’re always worth reading.
kenmitch: Great posts SpectoAcc. I monitor Lonestar share price closely (up a bit just now) and like you had been expecting them to report a lower NAV today. Whatever the reason for the surprise NAV increase it's very welcome and good chance of further EFR share price increase tomorrow. You say "at most 2 months" but I had thought they were allowing themselves some wriggle room and September not a deadline date and just an ambition. Is that wrong?
spectoacc: Thanks @kenmitch - valid point. "What goes up" etc. EFR have always claimed LONE to be very undervalued compared to their peers - latest big rise (which has come despite a lower oil price) must have brought them back in line. I slightly wish they were selling into this rise. On the plus side - EFR have seats on the LONE board, so in theory, if bad news was coming, they ought to know about it. Whether that would let them sell is unlikely, but it might have let them tweak the EFR NAV. Plus, if there was bad news on eg drilling or production, I doubt this big rise would have occurred. Either way - LONE is now c.75% of EFR's NAV, so the price they finally achieve will have a big effect on what we get back. On the plus side - if I'm right about current NAV, there's a fair bit of leeway in the EFR price already. What EFR said in early June when LONE was $7: "Lonestar's management continues to believe that its high quality assets and strengthened balance sheet are not well reflected in Lonestar's equity market valuation. Not only is Lonestar's share price (at $7.08 per share on 6 June 2018) trading at approximately 37% of the value indicated by the independent valuation of its proved and probable reserves, but Lonestar's shares stand on low trading multiples compared to its quoted peers that operate in the Eagle Ford shale basin or are smaller oil focussed US E&P companies. Lonestar's proved reserves are valued at just $7.6 per barrel of oil equivalent compared to its quoted peers whose proved reserves are valued at $11.4 per barrel of oil equivalent. Moreover, Lonestar's shares currently trade at an enterprise value equivalent to approximately 4.9 times analysts' estimates of 2018 EBITDA, while quoted peers trade at an average of 6.4 times EBITDA." Also worth noting - particularly the "..Each asset..", which includes LONE. And they were dead right about LONE s/p! :: "Your Board's and Investment Manager's focus is on realising the carrying values of the three significant remaining investments in the portfolio. Discussions are underway for each asset which should enable the Company to accomplish this goal and return the value to Shareholders in the coming months. Moreover, Lonestar's management is executing on a business plan that it believes will enhance its attractiveness to investors and drive an increase in its share price, which would raise the Company's NAV."
kenmitch: Very useful posts SpectoAcc so do keep posting. I only woke up to and bought EFR a few weeks ago, and then only because EFR featured in IT biggest winner lists and was wondering why. Clearly a LOT hangs on the LONE share price. So presumably their results next month could be make or break time? After such a fast gain a risk presumably that even very good results are already priced in, and even minor disappointment likely to hit share price? Don’t know much about LONE other than share price is rocketing!
neilyb675: Lonestar Resources US Inc ("Lonestar"), EF Realisation's largest investment, has announced transformational deals. Lonestar is making two large acquisitions that, together, cost $117 million and add 39% to current production, 70% to proved reserves and 59% to net acreage, all in the predominately oil-bearing trend of the Eagle Ford shale basin. Annual EBITDA (on a pro-forma basis) is estimated by Lonestar to rise 33%. The acquisitions will be funded primarily by an $80 million issue of convertible preferred shares to Chambers Energy Capital, a specialist investor in US oil and gas companies, as well as by the issue of 2.6 million ordinary shares. Proved reserves are being acquired at $3.7 per barrel of oil and at a 55% discount to their PV-10 value (an assessment of the future cash flows, discounted at a rate of 10% per annum, undertaken according to SEC regulated procedures). Furtherimprovementsto Lonestar’sdebtratiosandstructure On completion of the acquisitions and associated financing, Lonestar estimates its ratio of debt to EBITDA will decline from 3.9x to 3.2x for the quarter ended 31 March 2017 on a pro-forma basis, well below its long-term covenant of 4x. Concurrently, Lonestar has agreed amendments to its Citibank-led credit facility: the borrowing base has been increased from $112 million to $160 million and various covenant tests have been relaxed; furthermore, JP Morgan has joined the syndicate of banks lending to Lonestar. Lonestar is also simplifying its debt structure by repurchasing its 2nd lien facility, issued last year to finance the buyback of $68 million of senior notes at an average 47% discount to their par value. Upon issuance of the new ordinary shares, EF Realisation's shareholding in Lonestar will fall from 19.1% to 17.1% (of the outstanding ordinary shares), and potentially to 11.0% on eventual conversion of the convertible preferred shares. The convertible preferred shares may be converted into ordinary shares at $6 per ordinary share, a conversion premium of 45% above the Lonestar share price over the 20 days prior to the terms being agreed, demonstrating Chambers Energy Capital’s confidence in the accretive nature of these transactions for Lonestar. Most small capitalisation oil and gas companies in the US, including Lonestar, have experienced poor share price performance year-to-date. These acquisitions enhance Lonestar’s scale, accelerate its growth prospects, strengthen its balance sheet, and highlight Lonestar's undervaluation compared to its peers. Pro-forma the acquisitions, Lonestar’s shares are trading on 4x analysts’ estimates of 2018 EBITDA, well below the 7x average multiple of its Eagle Ford peers and the 9x average multiple of small cap oil-focussed US peers. By enhancing growth in production, reserves and EBITDA with a larger asset base and a strengthened balance sheet, these acquisitions create significant potential for appreciation in Lonestar’s share price .
praipus: Happy New Year. Belated noticed that Weiss Asset Management now hold 19.22%! I'track Weiss (an active value investor and arbitrager) on the "Tracking the Arbitrageurs" BB.
spectoacc: All about Lonestar, which is all about oil price. Curious convergence of -6.3% NAV, -6.3% share price, so can't complain there. Personally I think 2 years is something of a tight timescale to exit everything. Noticed they mentioned Menhaden too, a chronically illiquid piece of cr*p. Still - everything has a price.
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