Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 02/7/2024 14:45

"the patient investor"...


...will either need to be


Jobe

or

Lazarus

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 02/7/2024 14:12

#The Deacon, quote : looks like a sensible and attractive move says Berenebrg, which calculates that for the USD8.5M cost, the NPV is USD13M and a rate of return around 11%..

The market may well not give Ecora full credit for this deal yet, as it focuses on the balance sheet and medium-term royalty production time frame, but for patient investors, we think the value of this deal will become clear in time..

[the deacon] 02/7/2024 12:33

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050947/ecora-and-rainbow-royalty-a-good-deal-for-both-broker-suggests-1050947.html

[quepassa] 02/7/2024 08:54

how kind and gracious.

you nicely swerved the question, Deek.

i must give you credit for that.

Keir Starmer would be proud of you.

[swanvesta] 02/7/2024 08:49

"This should be a 4 fold investment multiple return (with the Rainbow CG) over its 16 year life and what investors should look at IMO"

That's a great way to fail at this game. Investors should NEVER be swayed by nominal returns years/decades in the future. They absolutely need to consider cost of capital, as well as all the typical risks, overheads and taxes.

[the deacon] 02/7/2024 08:27

I like to give everyone a second chance QP... Even you..

[quepassa] 02/7/2024 08:23

Hey Deek,

You said you had me on filter and were not reading my posts.


1. Please explain how you are reading my posts (let alone asking me questions), if I am on filter.

....are you perhaps just a curtain-twitcher and/or plain old common fibber?


Re USA and TechMet


2. Through your comments, you display total ignorance about how foreign Govenment
Development Agencies provide financial support to other countries.

3. Lots of companies invest heavily in South Africa but like TechMet they have a totally different risk profile and risk appetite.



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[the deacon] 02/7/2024 08:00

MBL interview update with the KE Reporthttps://youtu.be/ieGR8d-KYg8?si=Wa20GGYb691-QdEm

[the deacon] 02/7/2024 07:55

Well, it's good enough for Techmet and the US Gov QP. Besides, ECOR holds a small royalty as part of a much larger portfolio. We carry no operator risk here.

[quepassa] 02/7/2024 07:49

Share price has now dipped into the 60's and likely to fall further.

Many investors do not like the perceived heightened geo-political risk associated with RoSA since the weakened position of hitherto long-time dominant ANC after recent elections.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[the deacon] 01/7/2024 22:42

I note Los Andes are now guiding 2030 rather than 2029 as a potential start of commercial production at Vizcachitas. That would mean ECOR's royalty would step up due to a delay in production commencing post 31/06/30

[sword77] 01/7/2024 15:10

And not forget taxes, they also need to be paid

[swanvesta] 01/7/2024 13:27

"28.8M return for an outlay of 8.5M"

Please at least do a DCF. Otherwise you're totally inflating the real value. And what would be the appropriate discount rate? The 5% example I gave is far too low. And THEN factor in the various risks mentioned here, and the management overhead.

[1knocker] 01/7/2024 13:05

When were governments ever deterred from going for a quick buck by fear that they will kill the golden goose?

The UK is generally considered a 'safe jurisdiction', but wait for Friday morning (and the following 5 years)to see the attractiveness to the electorate of even a safe jurisdiction of promises to grab other folks' [ill gotten of course] money, and the unshakeable belief of governments that they can run industries better than those who have devoted their whole working lives to those industries.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2024 13:04

Using the 3 year average commodity price for the basket and 1830 tonnes, this gives us USD1.8M for 16 years, or 28.8M return for an outlay of 8.5M, plus any CG on the Rainbow shares..

Each royalty adds up over time.. :o)

[quepassa] 01/7/2024 13:00

yawn, yawn, yawn...

LLB would try and convince you that his three-legged donkey was the sure-fire favourite to win the Grand National

[quepassa] 01/7/2024 13:00

yawn, yawn, yawn...

LLB would try and convince you that his three-legged donkey was the sure-fire favourite to win the Grand National

[the deacon] 01/7/2024 12:32

Yes, sounding positive on VB and Santo Domingo. Fingers crossed for BHP to press on at WM. All three of those eventually hitting nameplate will transform the fortunes here

[the deacon] 01/7/2024 12:30

We've seen that movie many times before though. The threat of asset nationalisation as governments feel they should be benefitting more from international mining expertise. The usual outcome tends to be a more generous government royalty. Often governments think they can do a better job but it's usually the case they soon realise they don't have those sorts of skills. I suspect Mexico will soon realise that with their lithium nationalisation plan.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/7/2024 12:08

#The Deacon, interesting to hear we have already seen an increase in deliveries from VB in H1 as their ramp up accelerates underground.. :o)

July 24th for the Q2/H1 update..

[1knocker] 01/7/2024 11:57

the deacon, I see jurisdictional risk only increasing over the next few years. Every government seems to be broke, and the world is getting more polarised. the problem is that once you have put in the capital and built the mine, all that the locals see is foreigners profiting from their resources. When the government is scouting around for a bit of easy money, the mine looks a very attractive target.

Mind you, even in 'safe' jurisdictions we see 'windfall' taxes, and any extractive industry is especially vulnerable because not only cannot it not pack up is mine or well and take it elsewhere, but those taxes can be dressed up as efforts to save the planet.

I think the moral is that if any profit looks too good to be true, it won't be true for very long, anywhere.

[the deacon] 01/7/2024 10:42

MBL video interview re today's newshttps://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1050919/ecora-resources-ceo-marc-bishop-lafleche-on-ecora-s-first-rare-earths-deal-1050919.html

[stevie blunder] 01/7/2024 09:32

At current rates from the announcement:

1750 tons/yr, = 1,750,000kg @ 64$ x.0085 = $952k

Double that at 3 year average prices

PEA is a long read, but the headline figures look OK: