Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 11/8/2024 08:33

Just look at the bottom-drawer performance of this stock compared to peer-group streamers.

It's a horror show.

You'd be far better off re-investing elsewhere.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/8/2024 08:07

Worth remembering that JT was responsible for the VB deal, and the Narrabri divestment both in 2021..

The S32 deal in 2022 was satisfied mostly through issuance of 43M shares at 154 pence and S32 still have a 16.9% holding here well underwater..

2023- Vizcachitas royalty cash consideration of USD20M
2024- Phalaborwa royalty cash consideration of USD8.5M

[pockstones] 10/8/2024 17:03

Apologies for repetition but rhe current ceo demands a discount to be applied he has cost shareholders dearly and I now see him hitting out and going for an equity funded acquisition to justify a continuation in office
That sort of folly is likely at this point

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/8/2024 12:49

#Sword, interesting views, steel making is the primary use for our VB Cobalt as the battery revolution gains pace..

I see this as a lifetime hold share, catching the cyclical nature of commodities in/out of fashion over 10-20 years, IF we can add a couple of new royalties per year (1 in 2024 so far), and have 1 more come on-stream per year over time all will be well..

Perhaps looking back at 2024 and the 60 pence share price in 2026 we will see if differently and stonking value, the dividend is half now, the debt will come down..

Santo Domingo FID next up, then Incoa or vice versa.. :o)

Ecora expects to receive c40 deliveries of Cobalt a year just as Kestrel drops off from 2026 so this timing has worked out neatly, just a shame WM is not adding in the same year..

[r2oo] 09/8/2024 15:39

I have reasonable portfolio weighting in this stock, have held for many years but now down 53% excluding the dividends.I do plan to hold for another 10-20 years so wondering on your opinions on if this is likely to come good in that time frame?Analysts seem to have pretty high predictions for the stock price!

[quepassa] 06/8/2024 13:26

Corporate Broker......

[1knocker] 06/8/2024 11:42

Berenberg have raised their ECOR target price from 140 to 150.
Even 100 would be more than welcome.

[quepassa] 06/8/2024 08:38

Cobalt

YoY

minus 21%

[quepassa] 06/8/2024 08:35

Nickel.

West Musgrave.


August 2023 $20,500 per ton

August 2024 $16,300 per ton

YoY - minus - c.22%


Go figure

[giltedge1] 06/8/2024 07:19

I think an investor would compare Ecora to yields avaliable. So currently can get 7%, in property & infrastructure funds. Even BHP, a solid commodities performer is yielding over 6%. So at 3p div or there abouts share price 45p to get 7%. Markets can be tough unfortunately.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 05/8/2024 13:38

#Giltedge, royalties are a real slow burner and can take years to come online as builds progress, IF we get to a position of having 10 in the pipeline upstream and 1 comes on stream per year, that will do us nicely, fair to say we have hit a barren period for 24/25/26 so far though.. :o)

Perhaps Incoa will come good, they have until year end to meet their phase 2 conditions for us to add our next tranche..

The Group's obligation to advance the USD20M in funding under the financing agreement is subject to a number of conditions, including Incoas successful construction and operation of the project by 31 January 2025. Should the conditions precedent not be satisfied by the 30 April 2025, the Group's obligation to advance funding under the financing agreement will be terminated.

We also know VB will ramp up considerably over H2 into 2025, could be a gift at 60 pence, still a bi-annual dividend too..

[1knocker] 05/8/2024 12:55

Pockstones, that seems about right to me. A new CEO anxious to make his mark, out to buy, and overpaying. Not to mention getting rid of money spinning coal.

I am becoming ever more dubious about the pace of the 'electrification revolution'. I was tempted to have a punt on lithium earlir this year, but held off. My physical copper punt is down from 18% up to breakeven. If lithium and copper are not the bell weather for the green electrification revolution, I don't know what is, though to be fair Chinese general building is critical to and weighing on copper prices at present.

Companies need to resist the temptation to follow fashion and to be patient as much as investors do.

[pockstones] 05/8/2024 12:32

Real questions about the decision making of the chief executive I would likely buy if he was not on the scene but the current price reflects the wisdom or otherwise of recent investments
This man looks to have bought assets that others have chosen to pass on and investors in Ecora are paying for this

[giltedge1] 05/8/2024 12:08

Hello LLB, I think you are misreading 'Ore' is low quality is my point, have to dig a hell of a lot & expense, cf good quality BHP have said this. Anyway BHP announcing soon so can clarify. IC confirmed Ecora overpaid & unlikely to see royalties for a while. I have bought Ecora in the past & done well twice, so third time lucky, but I will 'park' my money elsewhere, until price drops & royalties start rolling in from new investments, looks like 2030's at this rate. I agree with you will come good, but have to be patient.

[1knocker] 05/8/2024 10:20

This is getting tricky. ECOR OUGHT to be a good long term buy at the current price, but I am disinclined to increase my holding, as it generally pays to be disciplined about portfolio weightings.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/8/2024 13:34

So BHP bought out Oz minerals because they thought their assets and pipeline of projects were of low quality..? sure they did.. :o)

We have a 2.0% NSR royalty on the West Musgrave copper and nickel project in Australia. Average annual production is expected to be 26,000 tonnes of nickel and 32,000 tonnes of copper..

WM is primarily a Copper mine by tonnage, Nickel 2nd..

[giltedge1] 04/8/2024 12:48

BHP inherited West Musgrave through takeover of Oz minerals, all development decisions were made by Oz prior to acquisition. On review Nickel ore low quality ie have to exctract a lot of ore as concentrate low., but as you say may return 2027. Point is whole division loss making & in very isolated region. Does not make sense to keep pouring cash in until Nickel prices recover. Best case restart 2027, but even then no royalties for Ecora till I guess 2030. Worst case project suspended. Would have made sense when Ecora purchased to stagger payments, as buying a royalty, 10% upfront & balance when royalties start. Why pay all upfront?.

[dartboard1] 04/8/2024 09:44

Not 100% accurate. Decision on WM to be reviewed 2027, and it can be accessed by public roads. Although a new road of 30km will be laid ... See how nickel prices look in 2027. Also where did you get the idea that BHP think it's low quality. BHP don't touch low quality

[giltedge1] 04/8/2024 08:52

Dartboard1 if we were to list all mistakes it would take reams not enough space on BB. Recommended sell 2 years ago at 1.60 I did, use to be fan on coal assets, but when changes made out of coal wondered whats going on!.
Yes has been a few good ones VB omkay.
But rushed into signing new deals from their Covid bonus.
Just googled West Musgrave 1300km from Perth, even the aborigines don't go there, no roads no nothing. BHP said 'low quality', so in layman's terms care & maintenance till 2030,s. San Domingo as far as I can see Capstone have no money & won't develop
or find a partner again 2030,s. Yes there will be income one day!, but a long time. Sure if price drops to 40,s will look again.

[the deacon] 03/8/2024 21:40

The flip side, of course, is that if you take a 4-5 year view then ECOR is extremely good value right now. As a 'ying' to the IC's 'yang' I thought it was interesting that in the last week or so Rick Rule admitted he was a buyer of ECOR recently.

[dartboard1] 03/8/2024 17:10

Yes, but.. you need to make a decision now. Sell. Hold. Or double down. There's no value from posts calling out management or saying wow that's a is a mess...

[brian3777] 03/8/2024 16:39

Just read the article in the Investors Chronic.

It does not make good reading.

I see now why the price collapsed yesterday.

The last paragraph in the article, sums up the dreadful decisions that have been made since the new management took over.

What a mess.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 03/8/2024 13:19

It is indeed the risk of a royalty portfolio, we buy into projects that will deliver in spades over time, the S32 deal was USD185M, but portfolio contribution at steady state production is expected to be USD10-15M when WM is built, 17M at todays prices..

Santo Domingo - portfolio contribution at steady state production is expected to be USD20-35M a year..

VB - USD205M cost - will deliver USD15-20M per year from next year for 15-20 years on its own, so around a 10% return per year for LOM and a 200% ROC..

FY2021 - 16.5M
FY2022 - 18.8M
FY2023 - 5.6M
TYD2024 - 2.0M

[dartboard1] 03/8/2024 12:12

It if I wanted interest I'd put it in a savings account. We're here for project risk. They've stuffed up some timing and deal execution, but that's the gamble we took ... time to sit on your hands and wait for nickel and cobalt prices to recover. This ship will turn