Ecora Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bsdjj] 13/6/2024 10:30

Interesting read across re : bid for Trident today (HT Peel Hunt Research). Takeout price of 1.7 times book value would equate to 249p value for Ecora.

[quepassa] 12/6/2024 05:31

"PREDICTABLY".

.....IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE.....



Binliner - yesterday Post 835 "... a predictably softer share price now it is over too"



Binliner - two months ago 15/4/24 Post 776

"Although disappointing as an income investor to see the dividend cut in half, it does add USD11M a year to debt reduction/buybacks or new royalty purchases for free..

Next stop 100 pence..? .. :o)"



Care to comment?



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[cocopah] 11/6/2024 14:49

Lows of 2004 … yes 20 years ago … is my best bet.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 11/6/2024 13:07

#1Knocker, 83.7 pence average for the BB, a predictably softer share price now it is over too, progress will depend on how soon we can say with any confidence whether the income to prop up the loss of Kestrel in 2026 is on track, WM is making progress but BHP are not due to update again until August..

BUT we do know VB is ramping up as we speak so deliveries should rise to 12-16 for 2024 up from 11 in 2023 for starters..

[1knocker] 11/6/2024 10:42

What is the average price of the buybacks, and what is the share price now?
More of my money burned by ECOR.
If the buyback money had instead been paid out in dividends, it would be in my bank account now.

[sword77] 11/6/2024 04:46

@Damp Seaweed, check last presentation, as far as I remember, we should get another dividend payout in 2nd half year for the first half year.

@Llb pictures are from April, so hopefully more progress now.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 10/6/2024 11:57

#Sword77, thanks for sharing, some of those foundations look like bases for the ball mills.. :o), long way to go, but WM is moving forward as demonstrated by the stills..

[sword77] 10/6/2024 07:54

construction at West Musgrave continues:

[damp seaweed] 10/6/2024 07:48

‘Pockstones217; I note that you posted below that the next dividend isn’t until 2025.
Can you (or anyone else) point me in the direction of Ecora’s dividend policy going forward.

[quepassa] 06/6/2024 12:53

758 and 775 refer

[grahamg8] 05/6/2024 07:31

With no buy back the support level looks like 70p. We shall see.

[pockstones] 01/6/2024 17:56

Fair comment MBL is a liability and the best chance of an improvement in the business will be his replacement he was closely associated with the Treger regime and cannot duck responsibility for the consequences.
Peter Boycott he is not.

[cocopah] 01/6/2024 17:23

A cynic might argue that the buyback was instigated not long after the CEO bought a load of shares (presumably hoping - misguidedly - that such a director investment would put a base under the share price). The share price then tanked. The share buyback has been done thoughtlessly and in a rush at too high a premium. I believe that the share price will continue to slide which means it will probably be several years before I get the remainder of my money back. Luckily, it’s not a significant investment but it still smarts. MBL said on several occasions that he was looking for an accretive deal in the near term and completely failed to deliver. He has proved to be a poor replacement for his predecessor.

It doesn’t help that their PR machine keeps pumping absolute garbage out about copper prices on their social media when having made such a hash of things they would be be better served keeping silent.

I will try and keep my thoughts to myself from now on and just sell when the price recovers sufficiently for me to take a minimal loss.

[pockstones] 01/6/2024 16:19

Laurence great assets but bad management and you have to factor in the cost of that the average salary cost of the 14 employees is appallingly high. They have an investor relations idiot and the least destructive thing they can do from a shareholder point of view is nothing but they are likely to remain active so likely to destroy further shareholder value. The buyback is finished next dividend is 2025 this is dead money unless South 32 decide to try and recoup value by reducing overheads and replacing the current board and that is unlikely

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/6/2024 15:38

We still have some great assets, but it is taking too long to realise income from them, as an income investor losing 50% of it stinks, I did not agree with selling off Narrabri, or the buyback, but it has been there for anyone to sell into if they wanted to reduce or move on..

We will soon see VB income ramp up and IF BHP green light WM (2.0% NSR) in August, we will see a partial recovery in the share price (IMO), Capstone Copper is also scheduled to release the updated Santo Domingo Feasibility (2.0% NSR) study during the first half of 2024.

Bottom drawer for this share for a few quarters while they just get on with it, Q2 update 24.07.2024 to see how we are getting along..

[pockstones] 01/6/2024 14:17

Dear 1Knocker fair analysis but if management had continued to pay a quarterly maintained dividend then the share price would be ninety plus instead they went for the short term thrill of spending the money on a share buyback at a discount to what they think is the right valuation of their assets.
Management as arrogant and stupid as this are rare and one hopes that an acquirer will come to the rescue but it will likely be a long wait and having demonstrated arrogant stupidity in the past when selling coal at the bottom and buying nickel at the top investors should brace for further value destruction.
There is long term value in the historic assets such as the Railway Tenements but current management have an impressive list of failures on the charge sheet and there seem to be no activists among the current holders willing to act

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 01/6/2024 11:17

#1Knocker, a good analysis, but perhaps if the BOD recognise they overpaid for VB/S32 and having learnt from that are biding their time waiting for better prices..?

There is a lot hanging on the WM build to substitute the Kestrel income drop off in 2026 which based on the Nickel/Copper price today looks a lot better for a green light..?

VB is ramping up now so more deliveries/more income for us from 2024, but now the BB is complete we could see further share price weakness and a visit back to the 60/70 pence range while events unfold..?

[1knocker] 01/6/2024 08:52

There wewe a good many of us who disliked the move away from coal and thought it a serious mistake.

It is perfectly fair to say that those of us who stayed in, and even added to, our holdings here after reaching that conclusion acted irrationally.

The more serious strategic error the company has made though is misreading how to play the 'green energy /electrification revolution'. The key is copper, and copper prices and investments remained surprisingly cheap for a considerable period. That provided a window of investment opportunity which was missed. Add to that the purchase of then 'fashionable' electrification /battery materials investments at high prices, and it is evident that the management here are merely chasing the market rather than analysing it.

Those who have bought in at 70/80 ought to be OK, but those of us with holdings bought around 120 probably have a long wait before we get our heads above water again. Anyone (not many of us I hope) who bought close to 200 is cooked. That was a selling not a buying price, whatever strategy the management had adopted. Even the best companies are bad investments if you overpay.

We should not rail against the management. Our losses are not caused by their mistakes but by our mistakes in failing to recognise theirs, and in investing /staying invested even when we do recognise their mistakes. ECOR is stuck with the consequences of its decisions. we are not stuck with ECOR.

I shall sell ECOR down as and when I see better opportunities in the sector elsewhere. I don't care whether i recover my money holding ECOR or selling it to invest elsewhere, but before I rotate into something else I need to be sure that I have thought the 'something else' rather more thoroughly than i did ECOR when I held on here despite my misgivings as to its strategy.

[cocopah] 01/6/2024 07:54

#Dartboard1 not really … he overpaid for the S32 assets and he harped on about finding near-term accretive deals but failed to deliver … so there’s that. I did sell down a substantial holding but left some in place.

[dartboard1] 31/5/2024 17:24

Mate. You knew exactly what the strategy was when they were doing it. You could have sold out when they exited coal and bought EV materials ... not sure why it's infuriating to you. Unless you got the call wrong yourself.

[cocopah] 31/5/2024 14:48

#LLB There really is nothing to put a floor under the share price now. The dividend is negligible and the near and medium term income is weak. The CEO has well and truly screwed shareholders for the foreseeable future. He sits there in presentations with that smug smile on his face (that is infuriating) having overseen a significant decline in shareholder value.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 31/5/2024 06:51

#Cocopops, not quite, but it is done now.., see where the share price goes next but metal prices are gaining strength as we head into the WM build decision..

[cocopah] 29/5/2024 14:20

Buyback done. Now we will see the real impact on the share price. Negligible dividend and depressed income for the next few years … here we go! 🫣😫

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 24/5/2024 09:17

#Starastar, I also expect the BB to complete today, I have been tracking the spend in GBP so subject to FX (USD10M spend) around GBP325K left, see if we get the RNS to say it is done at the close..

The USD:GBP has gone from 1.25 to 1.27, so there is only the change left now..