Easyjet Share Discussion Threads

[spob] 11/10/2016 11:37

Yes the main issue is that no matter how cheap your easyjet flight is ...

you now have to pay a hell of a lot more for your Hotel, Rental car, spending money, etc etc

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 11:36

Absolutely spob - but not everyone understands do they. I'd rather take my 'facts' from the company's recent trading update where it states in black and white, in a document subject to LSE regulations:

"easyJet’s unit fuel1 bill for the second half of the financial year is expected to decrease by between £75 million and £80 million compared to the six months to 30 September 2015"

This is unequivocal and fundamental to calculating a fair value for the business.

Plus, imo, sterling is going to rebound strongly in coming quarters which makes the current share price extremely attractive going forward.

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 11:34

Once a fool. Always a fool.

QP

[andy pipkin] 11/10/2016 11:32

The main issue is the demand problem. For a significant proportion of EZJ customers, going abroad is not an option now.

[spob] 11/10/2016 11:30

there are two issues here

fuel price hedging and currency hedging

the two are not the same

given that FX rates are usually fairly stable i suspect many companies will be caught with their pants down

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 11:27

Keep digging QP :)

Unlike you - I have no problem answering direct questions. I'm value investing so I'll know if I'm right or wrong a few years down the line. My current ave price is curremtly 912p - if it goes lower I'll buy more. £50 is my target sell price in my SIPP - plenty of time to be ripe and earn the divi's.

Now

Please explain how rising fuel costs will impact EZJ given these hedging numbers where EZJ is already paying ABOVE the current metric tonne rate for aviation fuel? And that they can currently hedge out to 2020 BELOW what they are currently paying?

[lucas5950] 11/10/2016 11:22

I agree with Suffers! QP always deflects direct questions. Looking at past trend since Referendum, we knew pound would affect EZJ along with brexit. It dropped massively to £9 then recovered to £12. As it's always done, it will recover. Times like these are opportunities, very rare ones when it used to be £19, to buy and keep long term with a nice dividend to keep you interested. It's like when I was in ARM, it fell to £8 with fear of a slowing market and panic erupted, Yet it was merely a rare opportunity to buy on the cheap. IMHO, luck to all!

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 11:19

Just can't accept the truth.

Come on , let's hear it.

All you need to say is that you called it wrong.

Be a man for once. Stop critising everything and everyone for your own defctive decisions and poor choices.

Be honest and just face up to reality and admit that you were so wrong.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 11:09

Lol - caught with your pants down QP ;)

STILL waiting on that answer.

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 11:07

At 1200p , this fool said it could only go UP.

Where are we now?

Down at 870p.

And been carping and criticising ever since.

can't accept how badly he called it and tries to blame and find fault with everyone else but himself.

he needs to look in the mirror of reality.

QP

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 10:50

From the fool who said the share could only go up from 1200p.

Had some horrible lurid graphs to prove it.

Share price now 870pence.

How wrong, how absurd, how ill-judged, how moronic.

Yet still has the hutschpa to criticise anyone who called the directional movement correctly.

A fool by name and indeed a fool by nature.

QP

[andy pipkin] 11/10/2016 10:47

Well Mr Smart Ass, did you see this fall of over 50% coming?

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 10:24

QP said - "It is however clear that you are not familiar with EZJ's hedging policy nor what percentage they hedge, nor the duration of the hedges."

Hmmm, yet from the Co's recent update of 6th October:

"easyJet’s unit fuel1 bill for the second half of the financial year is expected to decrease by between £75 million and £80 million compared to the six months to 30 September 2015"

surplus
Full year ending 30 September 2016 88% 86% 100% 87% $811 / metric tonne $1.61 €1.23 CHF1.46
Full year ending 30 September 2017 81% 74% 82% 71% $617 / metric tonne $1.52 €1.35 CHF1.41



Sadly the facts make you look a bit of a numptie QP. Please explain how rising fuel costs will impact EZJ given these hedging numbers where EZJ is already paying ABOVE the current metric tonne rate for aviation fuel? And that they can currently hedge out to 2020 BELOW what they are currently paying? No, though not ;) Don't miss me too much!

[iomhere] 11/10/2016 10:03

QP
Thanks for putting me in my place.

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 09:59

Dealer - Andy is your usual TA luddite. You can infer from his posts that he's a little 'limited' in his understanding of most things :) - too busy telling porkies about imaginary flight bookings he's making.Enjoying my nice trade from earlier - prob earned more in an hour than QP earns in a month at his keyboard @50p per post. Good luck all longs AND shorts - the latter will increasingly rely on lots of that. I'm away for a few weeks now so be nice to each other.

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 09:37

IOM.

1. Everyone does have access to the FT. Some may however not choose to pay to access it. I am not a paper-clipping service.
2. Their hedging policy is well known and already fully discussed in these bb's.
3. In terms of any caveat about it being my opinion that is de facto already there. Every post of mine ends with ALL IMO. DYOR which means what it says, namely: ALL IN MY OPINION. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

It is however clear that you are not familiar with EZJ's hedging policy nor what percentage they hedge, nor the duration of the hedges.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[dealer1972] 11/10/2016 09:29

Hmm 'nonsense' really? How do you think hft algorithm based bot trades are calculated? Slightly ignorant view. Stocks don't fall in a straight line or do you need a chart to prove that.

[suffersnofools] 11/10/2016 09:27

QP and these poorly researched articles completely fail to grasp EZJ's position with regard to fuel hedging and the level they are hedged at both this year and next. If you read the company's results statement you will see the actual facts of the situation. It's truly comical. Almost as comical as the paid keyboard warriors on here who believe what they write has the slightest impact on the share price

[iomhere] 11/10/2016 09:20

Que Passa
Not everyone has access to the FT so if you are quoting part of an article, the next few lines of which qualify the statement you have made, perhaps you should quote the whole article or paraphrase it with the caveat that it is your opinion albeit based on a well respected financial source.
Most airlines, including EasyJet, hedge the price they pay so there is some delay in paying more for fuel at a today's quote but the outlook for higher fares and a squeeze on demand is there. It'll happen in up to two years' time. After that who knows?

[andy pipkin] 11/10/2016 09:12

I think looking at nonsense like rsi, macd, bollinger bands etc is the quickest way to the poor house, especially for individual shares.

[dealer1972] 11/10/2016 09:06

At the same time rsi is now a touch over 20 indicating the stock is heavily oversold. I would have thought short term this is likely to bounce before any continuation of the downtrend if indeed it does continue.

[quepassa] 11/10/2016 08:58

With the following Price Targets:


HSBC at 800p

Liberum at 825p

and

SocGen at 820p.


The genie is firmly out the bag.



It just doesn't get easier within the sector.

Page 31 of today's FT notes :

" EasyJet Slipped to a three-year low / ..SocGen forecast that sterling's weakness will push up costs and exacerbates a deterioration in demand/ Every 1% of weakening of the pound against the dollar adds another £10m to EasyJet's £1bn fuel bill"

- see article for full text/context.


It's a great airline but the overall operating environment just gets worse and worse, tougher and tougher, less and less forgiving, more and more negative.

On top of everything else, the sector is now further soured by rampant sterling weakness and significantly rising oil prices.

It would not surprise me if HSBC/Liberum/SocGen are met within a shortish time-frame.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[lucas5950] 11/10/2016 08:54

Topping up looking at the long term!