Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[keya5000] 15/11/2015 19:38

Dean there was not the volume prior to the update to shift 750k.

Just because we have just had gbo does not mean every aim director is a crook.

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 19:09

keya

more chance of shagging the pope than significant BOD buying here....in fact far more chance of those shares transferred to his other half having been offloaded prior to the update.....

[keya5000] 15/11/2015 18:23

Lol, that's if they don't make any buys!

[dlku] 15/11/2015 17:01

or taking a long walk off a short plank

[keya5000] 15/11/2015 16:42

I would like to see the entire bod making decent purchases on Monday alongside full reinvestment of the dividend from all their holdings.

[keya5000] 15/11/2015 16:35

Tomorrows will be paid. At the current price of 23p the dividend represents nearly 20% of the mcap. If that's reinvested even at 40% of the issue it will create massive buying on Monday.

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 16:08

They can only cancel future dividends presumably. Tomorrows is set in stone?

[dlku] 15/11/2015 15:55

Group4 also cancelled dividend

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 15:06

well if it falls to 18-21p then 30-40% takes it to 24 - 28p ish ...

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 15:04

Cheers Dean that's useful. I'm thinking 30 - 35 level. Thanks

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:56

Massivley oversold on the RSI, MACD front ....so don't expect much more off it on the technical front.....but don't expect the bounce to be mega....so need to be on your toes.

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:53

I'm with Mr Market mid-long term.....

short term, all depends on where it bounces from ? ....that's anyones guess
I'll have a quick look at the technicals

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:51

What do u think Dean? I know your a bear on this but don't want to lose my shirt but it has potential? I've never seen a fall quite like it...
I do feel sympathy for holders at higher levels but at these prices see an upside....

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:50

downside depends on how much IIs offloaded Friday and how much they have left.

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:49

ok dude....seems like a plan

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:48

Because I have bought the stock 2 tranches at 26 and 23p. It's risky I know but there will be a bounce....

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:47

Dividend should go for starters...end of, to keep a dividend in light of recent events would be madness

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:45

things have changed Gary, as of Friday.....the risk profile for the banks has now gone up significantly

why not chase a stock with a strong BS, no debt, plenty of cash and growing profit and dividends

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:40

Debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16.
Debt was always going to increase....

[deanroberthunt] 15/11/2015 14:40

Will the banks give them the facility based on recent trading and revised numbers.....???

if not, what's the alternative? a placing....don't reckon IIs will be queuing up after the recent toasting....

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:39

Debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16.
Debt was always going to increase....

[dlku] 15/11/2015 14:35

Net debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:28

Good article. Massive change in figures but the shares have been pummelled for it.
Think it was an over reaction I would personally think a 35-40 p level about right. GLA

[masurenguy] 15/11/2015 14:17

DX Group trading update sees the shares tumble: is the sell-off overdone?

The trading update from the parcels, mail and logistics operator, for the financial year to 30 June 2016 has seen the shares more than halve in quick time. Clearly some big holders have had enough! However, the severity of the sell-off suggest some irrational Friday selling may have got the better of them. A bargain on offer or more to fall?

The trading statement confirmed that trading conditions in the new financial year remain challenging, with pricing pressure a significant factor. The DX Exchange operation is experiencing a higher than expected level of volume erosion and there have been increased cost base pressures, mainly arising from driver resourcing issues (where there is an industry wide shortage). In addition, the new business pipeline in the parcels operation, while healthy, is converting more slowly.

Revenues for the first four months are 5.3% down against the prior period and profits will be significantly below current market forecasts, being previously for pre-tax profit of £27.45m and eps of 10.9p. The proposed dividend payout for the full year is now 2.5p per share (from 6.10p) which equates to a yield of a whopping 10% at the now discounted share price, seemingly well covered by earnings, although not necessarily by cash. Debt is also forecast to climb given the proposed investment. Management commented how they are “positioning the business for long term success, creating a more efficient operating structure to support our services under our OneDX programme.” That all sounds reasonable if some short term pain will result in future gain, however Mr Market seems to think it’s all terminal.

House broker Zeus has taken a hatchet to estimates: EBITDA is cut by 42% to £20.0m in FY16 (previously £34.5m) leading to earnings declining by 55% to 4.9p. The dividend is cut to 2.5p (previously 6.2p) and it is forecast that it will remain at this level in both FY17 and FY18. Net debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16. Excluding this investment net debt would be below £10.0m in FY16 falling marginally in FY17. Earnings estimates are therefore forecast to fall over the next 3 years 2016/17/18 to 4.9p, 4.7p and 4.3p respectively Assuming the now lowly 25p share price this puts the shares on a June 2016 multiple of 5.1x rising to 5.8x in 2017. Arden Partners arrived at an even more drastic scenario with revised forecasts: 2016 Revenues £301m to £288m, PBT £27.9m to £9.9m, EPS 10.7p to 3.9p DPS 6.1p to 2.5p

For those after a ‘possible’ 10% yield who are happy to wait a few years for growth to reappear, it could an interesting one.

[garydav2] 15/11/2015 14:10

That's of no relevance here atm. Look at the fundamentals they are still predicting a profit of £11m on turnover of £280m and still looking to spend £36m on the new HQ. Also paying a considerable dividend tomorrow.....