Dx (group) Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 14/11/2015 09:49

EDIT: I couldn't resist the falling knife at 36p, and have bought a few, about 20 minutes after writing the above article. I didn't expect it to fall this low, and think there might be an opportunity for a trade, on a bounce to say 50p, possibly?

EDIT2: Just doubled up at 31p. Fingers crossed. I don't think it's anywhere near going bust, so the fall this morning looks overdone now.

EDIT3: Hmmm, well as usual, my falling knife catching has not gone well, so far. What has been staggering, with DX Group now closing down 73% on the day, at 23p, is the extremely high volume of shares traded. This must mean some Institution(s) are dumping at any price.

If you look at the list of Institutional shareholders for DX Group, it's like a Who's Who of small cap fund managers. Now of course everyone gets plenty of stocks wrong, it's par for the course. But I've been flagging for a long time that DX's profits looked unsustainable. How come none of these fund managers thought about that? It really makes you wonder what due diligence do they actually do?
- See more at: hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-13-nov-2015-dx-sgi-cgs-111411/#sthash.bB7BGmNx.dpuf

[deanroberthunt] 14/11/2015 08:54

House broker Zeus has taken a hatchet to estimates:

EBITDA is cut by 42% to £20.0m in FY16 (previously £34.5m) leading to earnings declining by 55% to 4.9p. The dividend is cut to 2.5p (previously 6.2p) and it is forecast that it will remain at this level in both FY17 and FY18. Net debt increases to £26.5m and £40.0m in FY16 and FY17 (previously £18.5m and £40.0m), however, this assumes an investment of c. £37.0m in to the new hub, weighted 60% in FY16. Excluding this investment net debt would be below £10.0m in FY16 falling marginally in FY17.

Earnings estimates are therefore forecast to fall over the next 3 years 2016/17/18 to 4.9p, 4.7p and 4.3p respectively

Assuming the now lowly 25p share price this puts the shares on a June 2016 multiple of 5.1x rising to 5.8x in 2017.

Arden Partners has arrived at an even more drastic scenario with revised short term forecasts:

2016 Revenues £301m to £288m, PBT £27.9m to £9.9m, EPS 10.7p to 3.9p DPS 6.1p to 2.5p

For those after a ‘possible̵7; 10% yield who are happy to wait a few years for growth to reappear, it could an interesting one.
- See more at: hxxp://www.investorschampion.com/blog/entry/dx-group-aimdx.-trading-update-sees-the-shares-tumble-is-the-sell-off-overd#sthash.XuvLAxgW.dpuf

[deanroberthunt] 14/11/2015 08:52

keya

it's a revised broker/analyst forecast.

EL

would it be a surprise to you if they have been offloaded.

[elcapital] 14/11/2015 07:56

Still love to know if the director wife still holds the shares that were transferred to her a few days ago. They are acting on concert but.............

[keya5000] 14/11/2015 07:32

DRH which statement do they say reduction in pbt to £9m?

[deanroberthunt] 14/11/2015 07:00

so can they tell us how that statement from just 2 months ago translates into a pbt reduction from £24m to £9m (and I don't believe that either), and a dividend cut from 6.5p to 2.5p (which is still a 11% yield, don't believe that also).

[gargleblaster] 14/11/2015 03:00

Amazing - this was the outlook on 15th of September!

Outlook

We are establishing firm foundations for DX's long term growth under our OneDX programme and this will remain a major focus over the new financial year. As we move through the programme, we expect to see efficiency gains as well as capacity and service benefits. At the same time, we are working on initiatives to enhance the services we provide our customers. Our aim is to expand within those areas where we have strong differentiation, including highly secure deliveries, 2-Man and larger, heavier, more awkward to handle consignments (irregular weight and dimension items).

We remain confident of further progress as we continue to deliver on the group's corporate strategy.

Bob Holt

Chairman

[dlku] 13/11/2015 21:21

haha Effortless.Sorry couldn't resist. We all do it at times.

[keya5000] 13/11/2015 21:19

It may get shelved.

No mention of such so they should still be expecting strong cash generation and a decent ebitda to service any future borrowings.

[effortless cool] 13/11/2015 21:18

Win some, lose some.

But how dare you suggest I would frequent a Berni Inn!

[dlku] 13/11/2015 21:17

I think there were a lot of Folks buying this today thinking they will be enjoying a berni inn steak and a pint with their profits
The result: lost £1500 in an afternoon

[dlku] 13/11/2015 21:12

where will they get £40m for the depot?

[keya5000] 13/11/2015 20:37

From not knowing about this company earlier today it looks like we have a a new found expert.

I would say this companies cash flow and cash generation are not its problem.

Typical post from one whose ego I suggest drives its output.

[my retirement fund] 13/11/2015 20:25

These institutions are going to need to bail this company out as it clearly does not have the cash flow versus its book, a very painful restructuring will probably be needed along with further fund raising so I wouldn't be expecting fireworks.

Having seen how incompetent the ipo fund managers must have been supporting the HSS float, I wouldn't count on that as any comfort, if they had been doing their job properly and were even remotely competent crud like this and HSS would never ever have made it past the starting line. How much other toxic crud has floated in the last2/3 years?

[maya2006] 13/11/2015 20:17

MRF
Either very unlucky or very stupid
A little of the former and most of the latter
Am holding on to the fact that the ii' s inveted here look good
Am thinking May be a little recovery due to the heavy falls by the law of averages am due a bit of luck

[dlku] 13/11/2015 20:08

giles hargreaves got a hot poker up his butt

11% holding.ouch

[maya2006] 13/11/2015 18:58

I'm no expert but any simple person can surely see there must be deep underlying issues facing this co and could this be another globo QPP for the share price to be hammered so badly?
I am a shareholder and verY upset as I bt more after the last RNS

[petewy] 13/11/2015 17:32

Major shareholders
Hargreave Hales 23.77m 11.85%
J.O. Hambro Capital Management Ltd.19.08m 9.52%
Ruffer LLP 13.07m 6.52%
AXA Investment Managers UK Ltd. 12.91m 6.44%
River & Mercantile Asset Management LLP 12.05m 6.01%
Unicorn Asset Management Ltd. 10.13m 5.05%
Henderson Global Investors Ltd. 9.57m 4.77%
Premier Fund Managers Ltd. 8.43m 4.21%
Liontrust Investment Partners LLP 8.43m 4.20%
Miton Asset Management Ltd. 6.90m 3.44


Problems?

[eastbourne1982] 13/11/2015 17:02

Bought today at just under 23.5p, if this company was riddled with debt I wouldn't touch it, it isn't, in due course I reckon this will recover to 40 - 50p.

[loverat] 13/11/2015 16:55

No problem cashmachine. I read a lot of these threads and they often fill up with pondlife (deanroberhunt) on a big fall. They start the discord with their inane comments and grate on people and before you know it normally rational people are getting sucked in.

Certainly a massive fall and I think this will recover to a higher level once the dust has settled. I notice that stocks which are heavily shorted tend to accelerate down towards the end of the day. Looking at other stocks lately, might fall a little more and take a while to settle before any bounce.