Diversified Energy Share Discussion Threads

[stevensupertrader] 13/3/2023 17:18

Just in 5 trading days since last Monday , GKP had fallen about 15%!!!! Very painful for those who bought more to average down last week week and today . Tomorrow might see another Low - is GKP a falling knife???

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/3/2023 15:42

#1Knocker, the way the last year has played out into 2023, being a buyer on a controlled time frame through incoming funds has opened the door to better prices on more shares than it has locked me out of for sure.. :o)

[greygeorge] 13/3/2023 15:21

lab305 - '...Multi year low now , not since covid. The placing undermined any confidence of investors. It's no use blaming gas prices as they have been lower before and the share price higher. I thought we were ringfenced by hedging ?...'

lab305 - Have you forgotten already that just before the collapse of NG a couple months ago, DEC bought itself out of a bunch of hedged contracts ? I seem to recall you rejoicing at that stupid, short-sighted move at the time. Even though you had no idea what the cost was to DEC, and what new positions it was bale to take just as the price of NG was crashing.

[1knocker] 13/3/2023 13:56

Yes, I too am subject to 'enforced patience' at present as this is one of my big dividend months, mostly paying during the last week. That may be no bad thing. This has the look of a pretty sharp pull back. Much depends upon whether a few more banks /financial institutions hit the buffers ...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/3/2023 13:07

#1Knocker, with a 13 week dividend cycle and possible news in between, I too have just been adding on the dips and hold for income, trying to be too clever and trading a share usually trips me over or gives me a headache staring at charts for too long, additions mostly dictated here by incoming dividends from elsewhere setting the timings, more to come at month end courtesy of BP/IMPs.. :o)

[1knocker] 13/3/2023 12:56

Patience is a virtue, whether buying or selling. If one is both a buyer and (at the right price) a seller, both bull and bear markets are grist to the mill of investors as well as traders.

In hindsight, it would have paid to trim more aggressively over 130, but with a long term income return which would easily justify 150+ and with quarterly dividends the prospect that any sale will cost a dividend it is a share which I think about trading out of and back into and then generally decide not to be clever and just hold. I have not been averse to buying when it touched a 12 month low though. When I was building my holding I kept limit orders in at the 12 month low and let the market direct the timing of my purchases.

[lab305] 13/3/2023 12:30

In 2018 it was 132p.

[2wild] 13/3/2023 12:15

The share price Rose to 144p last year on the back of rising natural gas prices. It has been falling for the last 8 months as the price of natural gas fell from its peak of over 8 US dollars to its current trading range of around 2.2 to 2.8. Of course many other factors also influence the price. 3 years ago we had low gas prices and negative SENTIMENT, DEC was just 64p. 5 years ago it was 87p

[1knocker] 13/3/2023 11:49

The SVB situation may have been 'resolved' (so far as depositors are concerned anyway) but the more significant issue is how many others are struggling. Last year we saw pension funds in difficulty because the very swift rise in interest rates after more than a decade of very low rates had made previously profitable contracts loss making; the SVB problems are more the same. Institutions need time to adjust to a change of interest rate direction.

I think the market is pricing in two unpalatable alternatives. Will the FED slow or pause its rate rise strategy in the face of such strains, or will it carry on regardless? The first would call into question its inflation credentials, and the second may mean that SVB will be followed by others. At present, it looks (both sides of the Atlantic) as though the rate rises will continue, but the banking system will be made to bail out depositors (but not bank shareholders or bond holders. Will that do the trick to preserve confidence and minimise contagion? Its worth remembering that baks have a mass of dealings besides deposit taking and lending, all with counter-parties. When banks start wondering about each others ability to meet their obligations, the financial system can quite quickly freeze up.

[johnhemming] 13/3/2023 10:38

>It is disingenuous to suggest that people are selling on the commodity price.

Today I think people are selling all sorts of stocks because of the situation with SVB which as far as I can see has now been resolved.

[1knocker] 13/3/2023 10:16

The way the share price has moved since the share issue, one could argue that the purchasers of the new (discounted!)shares have been fleeced for the benefit of the existing holders and those who have bought since !!

[lab305] 13/3/2023 09:17

Multi year low now , not since covid. The placing undermined any confidence of investors. It's no use blaming gas prices as they have been lower before and the share price higher. I thought we were ringfenced by hedging ?

[greygeorge] 13/3/2023 01:22

What's the odds, do you all suppose, that DEC announces it's suspending its' dividend payment to ensure 'cash liquidity' at this time, even though DEC has no banking relationship with 'Silicon Valley Bank' or with 'Signature Bank New York' ?

[bothdavis] 12/3/2023 22:37

aaaand then it drops 20% a year!

[2wild] 12/3/2023 13:02

On Friday I added 1000 pound to my sip . Including the 25% Uplift, I was Able to buy 1255 shares. Giving $219.62 yearly. With a 1.2 exchange rate that's 18.3% On my 1000 pound investment.

[renewed1] 11/3/2023 08:38

Nice to see the company replies and responds to the points raised instead of typical cut and paste job from so many companies...whether we agree with the response or not!!

[lab305] 10/3/2023 20:35

johnhemming. I too hold for the long term , nearly six years now. For a company that prides itself in safety the volatility is unbelievable. Now when the hedging should be giving us backing we are on the floor. It is disingenuous to suggest that people are selling on the commodity price. The story has been out there long enough. The share price responsibility lays squarely at the door of the actions of Dec.

[karakaya00] 10/3/2023 18:06

This is the reply I got from DEC when asked why they do share buybacks and then start raising funds.

"Thanks very much for your email and apologies for the delayed response.



With regards to the share repurchases conducted in 2H22, there was at the time of the share purchases a unique opportunity presented in the form of near-parity between the US Dollar and Pound Sterling. The Company took advantage of the temporary disruption in foreign exchange and ceased purchases when the USD/GBP cross returned to normal levels.



As it pertains to DEC’s recent share price performance and the equity fundraise, I would first take a moment to remind that year-to-date performance for Natural Gas has seen the active contract price decrease by >30% and gas-weighted North American producers have seen a drop in equity value of approximately 10% across the board. Certainly we feel that Diversified’s robust hedge position for 2023 (above the current natural gas strip) should provide some insulation when compared to peers with less price protection, but at the least this strategy will support cash flows in an uncertain commodity price market. Broadly, Diversified’s year-to-date share price performance has replicated that of market peers and significantly outperformed the commodity.



Speaking to the recent acquisition and fundraise, it’s important to recall that the Company acquired approximately $800 million in Central Region assets since the May 2021 fundraising (Diversified’s last until February of this year) – which was largely made possible through strategic financing and utilization of the Balance Sheet. Given the full subscription of the February 2023 fundraise and the relatively low discount of 5% to the 8 February mid-market price, it is reasonable to say that there was significant institutional and even retail demand for the shares that supported the placing.



We appreciate you reaching out and your ongoing investment and support of the business model. I hope that the above has spoken to your enquiry, but please do let me know if I may assist in this or other matters.



Best,

Wren Smith

Investor Relations

Diversified Energy Company PLC"

[johnhemming] 10/3/2023 15:44

@lab305 If you know how the stock works then gas prices don't matter, but a lot of people trading the stocks are following commodity prices. This happened during Covid which is when I took my average price down from £1.20 to a much lower point.

Of course the company continued to pay the dividend all throughout the lockdowns.

There are from time to time opportunities in stock picking.

In the end I hold the stock for the long term. If the acquisition pays for itself over three years then the additional cash after that is something I would like a share in.

[gisjob2] 10/3/2023 15:02

I'm a small shareholder here and DEC are becoming very interesting to me for a large top up at these sorts of levels, especially with the Dividend as large as it is, however I have read and seen questions regarding how the company quantifies it's well P&A liabilities, and in particular how it quantifies it's gas leakage from wells once they're acquired them from previous owners as discuss in the video here at 33 mins



I'm sure this has probably been discussed at length before on the board but can anyone offer their constructive thoughts regarding articles such as this.

[johnhemming] 10/3/2023 14:33

Natural Gas is on its way down again at the moment.

[gisjob2] 10/3/2023 14:26

Any chance of the low 90's ?, I would consider a top up around there.

[johnhemming] 10/3/2023 13:11

@lab305 I would not expect them to start a buy back this soon. I would not be surprised if there were not some covenant on the financing.

[scrwal] 10/3/2023 12:36

I don't see how they can continue the share buy back at this point in time since they have just done a share raise.
The price will recover but this is what happens to DEC when they do a snap placing and will do in the future. Continuing to do this will always unsettle the market and when other factors are in play, even if not sector specific, the price will get hit.