Distil Share Discussion Threads

[kmann] 22/1/2016 08:11

GOOD UPDATE

[tez123] 22/1/2016 08:02

I'll drink to that.

[waterloo01] 22/1/2016 07:59

or cash.... It's what's not said.

[berny3] 22/1/2016 07:56

The key figures are "revenues climbed by 71% by whilst volumes rose by 31%, supported by a 96% increase in brand marketing."

I need to run back through my figures but I am pretty sure that will equate to improved margins.

[waterloo01] 22/1/2016 07:48

No mention of numbers nor profit. Rather telling. Best of luck.

[haggismchaggis] 22/1/2016 07:37

I doubt the are ploughing it all back in, they are still targeting cash flow positive, so it would be a balancing act between investment in growth and keeping a healthy cash pile.

[glennborthwick] 22/1/2016 07:17

Great update. Although it does look like they are ploughing it all back into the business to grow it.

[lr2] 21/1/2016 18:25

A large after hours trade reported - 1 million @ 0.95p. Someone is building a decent sized holding.

[berny3] 21/1/2016 15:04

This is the distributor

[petersinthemarket] 20/1/2016 18:11

Does anyone know how the distribution system works? Who are they?

[berny3] 20/1/2016 11:06

have not been posting much - but the flow of new outlets has not slowed down. One of note is this new one in New Orleans fro Blackwoods Gin

[dietcoke197] 15/1/2016 19:51

26th February last Year along with a TTB approval.
I suspect it was delayed to incliude the TTB approval

[petersinthemarket] 15/1/2016 19:15

I know we had a TU on 30 jan 2014 but cannot find the date for last year's.
Still I think the comment is correct.
I would expect a welcome update around the end of this month.
With any luck xmas 2015 turnover was much improved over previous years.
Perhaps Berny can estimate how many distributors he has reported!
Have a good weekend. pete

[dante17] 07/1/2016 10:16

Happy new year to u all. Expecting a trading update any day now (probably on Monday). Looking to see how Diva's re-launch has gone, when RedLeg will be shipped the the States and overall margin improvements.Meanwhile check the new upgraded RedLeg website that's just gone live. New Blavod site to follow.

[berny3] 01/1/2016 08:33

There are private companies selling spirits and other alcoholic drinks. One I looked at previously was Halewood International Limited. They are the makers of Crabbies Ginger beer among others. Although not spirits still an interesting view into the margins in alcohol sales. They distribute as well as produce and margins as I recall were in the low teens. Margins and volumes are key in this business. Many producers go for the volumes first which is often an error. The key there is the attempt to create a drinks brand. In my opinion Distil is in a fabulous position of having fantastic margins and also establishing a number of drinks brands. Quite unique. Historical financial performance is what is holding the market value back, along with missed promises. We are seeing improvements in financials however risks are still there I think the market is waiting to see fulfillment of the promise of break-even. The investors gamble is whether you feel that can be achieved.

[kmann] 31/12/2015 20:28

Another point I would add to garys article, how many other companys in THIS sector are there like dis out there, and if so, do they have such potential for growth at such attractive value.

[berny3] 31/12/2015 09:25

A great year for the company and hoping an even greater year next year. Do feel the company has turned the corner now and has the best chance possible to maximize on its products and strategy and begin to become financially sustainable and make a profit. Twitter traffic on Redleg Rum looks very positive with individual posts about how good the rum is.

A re look at news flow 2015

February 2015
Blavod Black Vodka approved TTB US

April 2015 - Redleg listing in 400 stores of major supermarket chain
Blackwoods Gin 60% approved TTB US
Blavod Black Vodka first orders into US

June 2015
Blackwoods Gin approved TTB US

September 2015
First shipments of relaunched Diva Vodka (exports and domestic market)

October 2015 - Redleg listing in 700 stores of major supermarket chain. (That has Redleg now in two major supermarkets totaling 1,100 stores)

October 2015
Interim results:
Revenue +89%
Gross Profit +95%
Volume +23%
Admin cost -16%
Marketing +100%
Reduction in operating loss -69%

What lies ahead for 2016? - Interested to see the impact of the listing in the second supermarket chain for the Christmas period for Redleg Rum on volume growth. We know Blackwoods Gin is already in the first Supermarket chain. That gives us a total of 1,500 (400+700+400 supermarket listings). I reckon we need around circa 3,000 case (6 bottles) sales a month to break even. Just on the Supermarkets that is 12 bottles a month or 3 bottles a week. On top of that you have other retailers UK both off licence and on licence. Plus US and ROW distribution. I have also laid down below some of the financial stats to show how the company has improved since 2011

FY 2011 Revenues £4.5mln loss £501K (£41.75K per month)
HY 2012 Revenues £2mln loss £393 (loss of £65.5K per month)
FY 2012 Revenues £4.5mln loss £433K (loss £36K per month)
HY 2013 Revenues £2mln loss £191K (loss of 32K per month) (adjatd one off costs)
FY 2013 Revenues £3.7mln loss of £320K (loss £26.6K per month)
HY 2014 Revenues £1.3 mln loss £229K (loss of 38K per month)
FY 2014 Revenues £2.4mln loss of £367K (loss of £30.5K per month)
HY 2015 Revenues £280K loss £198K (loss of 33K per month)
FY 2015 Revenues £666K loss £289K (loss of £24K per month)
HY 2016 Revenue £530K loss £90K (loss of £15K per month)
est FY 2016 Revenue £1.2mln break even (loss of £0 per month) based on 89% growth in revenue; 57% g margin and constant admin exp

Note if the company can achieve 36,000 case sales a year. With a mrkt cap at £4mln that equates to a valuation of £111 per case. Historic valuations in spirits equate to between £500 and £1,000 per case. IMO market cap should be between £10 and £20 million.

All this is in my own opinion and there are many guesses and estimates but with a 100% upside potential by my calcs makes this attractive especially as the res of the major market looks to be suffering.

[dietcoke197] 30/12/2015 14:01

distil hits 1p on the bid.

Now..... hold on to it please.

[kmann] 30/12/2015 13:50

I think we could see it heading back toward 2p+ level with the right news flow.

[haggismchaggis] 30/12/2015 13:30

Didn't some idiot predict 0.7p?:-D

[berny3] 29/12/2015 16:04

kMann could you post up article.

[kmann] 29/12/2015 15:11

Tipped by one of the more "sober" and respectable bloggers with realistic expectations.

Personally going to hold or add on weakness, but see enough significant potebtial over the year to attract value and momentum investors