Distil Share Discussion Threads

[monkey puzzle] 02/11/2015 13:40

The shares are currently little changed on the 0.90p at which they were tipped by us as a Penny Shares buy earlier this year. Some further patience will likely be required but we believe in Executive Chairman Don Goulding’s ability to drive growth and deliver significant operational gearing here. Still currently capitalised at sub £4 million and considering also the brand value backing, we continue to see good scope for the shares to materially re-rate from here and, initially targeting 1.4p+, continue to rate them a buy.

[berny3] 02/11/2015 13:38

DC - when you look at Market Cap vs case sales. I believe their is a discrepancy. We currently have £88K revenue per month. Put that too case sales and I reckon that is around 2,000 - 2,500 cases per month. Ignoring Christmas trading uplift and that is 24,000 - 30,000 cases per year. Based on a £4mln mrkt cap that is equivalent to £166 - £133 per case in mrkt value.

Strikes me that the market is yet to wake up to the value here.

[monkey puzzle] 02/11/2015 13:27

Tipped by TW today

[dietcoke197] 02/11/2015 13:24

Nice little uptrend starting to form.

Whether or not breakeven happens in this financial year, this company is firmly and obviously now moving in the right direction.

bull points for next year:
supermarket listings now driving sales.
US distribuion to beging ramping up after license approvals.
possibility of recovery in eastern europe?
plenty of cash.
Admin costs under control.

bear points:
pressure on margins
pressure on promotion spend.


In the worst case I can sensibly come up with I can see £200K profit easily for 2017.

The best case is £300K

[haggismchaggis] 02/11/2015 08:09

I see BREWIN NOMINEES (CHANNEL ISLAND) NOMINEES LTD added 4.3m shares. That is good support at this price. I think they are still loading up. Not much chance of lower prices with them in play.

[berny3] 01/11/2015 09:19

another for Blavod..

[dietcoke197] 30/10/2015 10:33

That sounds about right Berny.

I've plumped for £850,000 sales and 57% GM, which comes out around breakeven.

The tesco numbers depend a lot on whether they get an end aisle promotion going as they did at sainsbury's

[berny3] 30/10/2015 09:57

A few more figures. mnthly revenue has increased by 89% compared to same period last year. A high proportion of that revenue must have come from the listing of Redleg in Sainsbury. Now we have a listing in Tesco (700 stores compared to 400 for Sainsbury) 6 mnths ahead of the listing we had in Sainsbury at a time of year with the highest demand I have assumed two senerios. A low comparison which just takes the same organic growth seen last year between 1st half and 2nd half of the year (+39%) and Gross Margins staying the same (57.9%)and a high side which takes the comparison between Sept figs 2014 and Sept figs 2014 (+89%) and Gross Margin improving to 60%. A successful listing in Tesco is over a doubling of supermarket outlets. On the low side FY loss is reduced to £61.5k on the high side FY profit is £116,020.

Act Sep-15
Mnthly Rev £88,333.33
Revenue £530,000.00
COGS £223,000.00
GP £307,000.00
Overhead £396,000.00
Pnl -£89,000.00
Mnthly Pnl -£14,833.33

low side based on last years growth of +38% and constant Gross margin

est 1/2yr March16
Mnthly Rev £121,900.00
Revenue £731,400.00

GP £423,480.60
Overhead £396,000.00
Pnl £27,480.60
Mnthly Pnl £4,580.10

high side based on +89% grwth yoy monthly revenue plus improvement to 60% Gross margin

high
est 1/2yr March16
Mnthly Rev £166,950.00

Revenue £1,001,700.00

GP £601,020.00
Overhead £396,000.00
Pnl £205,020.00
Mnthly Pnl £34,170.00

[berny3] 29/10/2015 17:45

That is a confirmation it is Tesco's then.

[charaxes1] 29/10/2015 17:42

In the local Tesco in Harrogate as well.

[westfieldpark] 29/10/2015 17:30

On the shelf of my local tesco's today.

[berny3] 29/10/2015 16:15

Not sure whether the new listing is Tesco's but they have it on their website but says currently not available. Can anybody confirm if it is on the shelves of Tesco?

[petersinthemarket] 29/10/2015 15:48

I hope that all of you are right and that I am completely wrong. Nothing would please me more. At the moment the market is unconvinced and the share price is back where it started. I have had a lot of money invested here for much longer than intended and the lost opportunity cost has been much too high. I am very much looking forward to offloading stock without losing too much but I do not think that day is very close. GL all, pete

[kmann] 29/10/2015 14:30

Looks to me like all the .9p sellers are going to have to buy back higher.

You can't dismiss numbers like that with a "quickie - how was it for you" trade. Recognise a proper growth company, selling stuff that people want when you see one imo. This has based solidly for a year now, ready for the next move up supported by REAL news and numbers.

[berny3] 29/10/2015 13:53

sorry Peter you feel that way but the two news articles released this morning were extremely good I believe. Diet Coke your figures make sense. I have crunched my own. You have to note a couple of significant things which have been missed in my opinion in interpretation of both news items.

FY figures last year did not include Sainsbury listing of RedLeg Rum. (April 15)

There was 38% growth in sales between September 14 and March 15.

Therefore we could assume organically the Christmas period brings 38% growth. This would take us to £731.4K for the second part of the year. However there are two key points worth noting. Gross margins improve in the second half of the year. last year from 56% to 61%. This could be due to costs being incurred in the first half for the production run up to Christmas. Additionally we now have an additional 700 supermarket outlets stocking RedLeg on top of what we already had. If that can increase revenue by an additional 12% taking total growth into the second half to 50% the company will be profitable for the full year everything staying the same.

[asturius101] 29/10/2015 11:18

Yes, but will still see at least the mid .70's again before the xmas trading update. Mark my words

[kmann] 29/10/2015 11:02

Peter, did you read the same RNS?

Plenty of newsflow ob the horizon imo, chistmas trading, USA, etc.

[petersinthemarket] 29/10/2015 10:22

Results? Still jam tomorrow - another 6mths to wait yet again and little sign of profitability. The joy at larger supermarket sales should be tempered by the inevitable lower margins. This is a difficult and crowded market to get into. High volume, low margin, is the norm. Unfortunately I still remain locked in as I'm underwater since that sudden change of policy and name change to Distil. I bought my holding when it was Blavod and the share price was rising strongly. I believe they could reach break-even eventually but I really cannot see when. Progress is so slow it's as painful as pulling teeth. Disappointing.

[asturius101] 29/10/2015 09:57

Made you look

[haggismchaggis] 29/10/2015 09:37

KMann, just filter the scum, he wasn't selling because he had no shares to sell, he's just a troll trying to get the price down so can get in, but he won't get in at 0.70 because it won't go there, so just ignore the cretin. I've already put the filter on.

[kmann] 29/10/2015 09:36

Asturius101, in that case I respect your honesty. I love to see your poker face though!!

[dietcoke197] 29/10/2015 09:29

Gross margin 42%
Assuming sales momentum continues at 95%.
This is what the next 6 months brings.

Revenue 720
Cost of sales -303
Gross Profit 417
Administrative expenses:
Advertising and promotional costs -133
Other administrative expenses -261
Depreciation & amortization -2

Other Operating Income
Total administrative expenses -396


Operating profit 21


However, The comparatives for sales is the first 6 months where there was zero contribution from 3rd party brands so I think that the second 6 months will see a further increase in the sales comparison. I reckon 880 is within reach for sales.

On the downside, the new supermarket listing will have an impact on GM and promotional spend.
Further there is still no news of US approvals which basically takes any significant US uplift out of the quation until next year.

The key now is to keep that promo spend under control. I reckon a small operating profit for the next 6 months with a small (<70k) operating loss for the year.

Definitely on the right track.

[mortimer7] 29/10/2015 09:17

Assuming current levels of GP & Admin exps remain, they need another 30% increase in revenue to achieve break even for the next 6 months. So £690k for the period which would give £1.22 million for the year. Looks possible as the last 2 six month periods have both seen revenue increases of 37%.