Distil Share Discussion Threads

[petersinthemarket] 16/2/2016 20:12

At last! A lurker declaring a position? This was and is a cracking chart. Lower trend line a little rough but rising gently for last 6mths on frankly very poor news flow. Under current mkt conditions the share price is holding up rather well imo. Its still not terribly exciting and my holding is still well underwater but it looks more promising than last year. I am still on the same planet as you but I obviously see things differently. So why do you think it is going back to 0.8? I personally doubt it but lets hear your reasoning. You might even be right. Whilst you are considering that perhaps some other lurkers would also like to have a say. This thread could do with a few more contributors. GL, pete

[asturius101] 16/2/2016 10:20

Cracking? Back to the 0.8 region again cracking? What planet you on friend?

[petersinthemarket] 12/2/2016 20:49

What a cracking 6mth chart! Anyone reckon dis is a serious buy at the moment? For myself, I have enough, but I am curious to know how brave others are feeling. I suspect we have a very large number of lurkers here. Anyone care to declare an interest? Have a good weekend, pete

[petersinthemarket] 09/2/2016 16:46

Sorry chaps - my fault for speaking out!

[petersinthemarket] 09/2/2016 14:21

SP holding up surprisingly well considering the bashing some other stocks are getting this week. pete

[berny3] 08/2/2016 10:20

PIM good luck with your decisions.

I have been tracking Twitter followers for rum gin and vodka

As at 26/06/15
Redleg Rum 4,157
As at 08/02/16
Redleg Rum 5,522

As at 26/06/15
Blackwoods Gin 6,655
As at 08/02/16
Blackwoods Gin 9,124

As at 26/06/15
Blavod 1,607
As at 08/02/16
Blavod Gin 2,628

[petersinthemarket] 05/2/2016 22:04

This really is gradually becoming an share price trend line to die for! Normally, I would be thinking of entering a new trade on finding a chart like this. I'm a chart man at heart. Pity I'm still nursing a 2yr+ loss on dis. I hope the trend is justified come results time, but justified or not I will unload a chunk during the next few months if I actually get anywhere near my long term average cost. I'm not resting my capital here for another year or two on the off chance of gains. This is a difficult market sector and there are better opportunities elsewhere. Still, a very comfortable chart to end the week on. Off to watch the 6 nations rugby for a couple of days now. Best of luck to all holders, have a good weekend and see you again Monday. pete

[petersinthemarket] 03/2/2016 15:22

Thanks Berny - I see where you are trying to get with it now. Perhaps rather a lot of guesstimates in there but i obviously hope you are right. pete

[berny3] 03/2/2016 12:52

PIM the fact that larger firms are moving into the craft market. I know it is 2012 it is to illustrate the price being paid per case value of sales. If you take the current market cap circa £4mln make a guessestimate on case sales using turnover you get at a value the market is currently attributing to the current case sales. If we are circa £1mln turn over get an estimate of revenue per case do the maths. The company has to be close to 30,000 cases overall on that turnover if not more. As 30,000 cases would equate to £30 revenue per case. 6 bottles a case £5 revenue per bottle. That gives the current market cap valuing the business at circa £100 - £150 per case. With the growth rates the company has currently value per case should be in the £500 -£750. Just trying to pull the dots together and why I am so interested in this as I see the true value a multiple of where things are currently.

[petersinthemarket] 03/2/2016 10:58

Berny - forgive me - I'm a bit thicker than usual this morning and I don't understand your point. 2012 takes us back to blavod days when they were moving other producers goods. What are you trying to illustrate with those figures?
pete

[lr2] 02/2/2016 20:04

If you set up an account with Progressive Equity Research (it's painless) you can access their latest Distil research note, dated last Thursday, here.



Forecast revisions from PER note follow.

We have made some forecast revisions to reflect both the stronger turnover growth and the increased investment in brand marketing in the current year. The net result of this sees in effect no change in our forecast for a small PBT loss of £0.10m. We have raised the projected turnover growth for FY16 from 50% to 75%, given the continuation of sales momentum reported in Q3.

In light of this momentum, and with some brands re-listed in the US, as well as the extended coverage within the UK supermarket sector, we have increased the projected rate of turnover growth for Distil from 15% to 20% in both FY17 and FY18. We believe that marketing costs will continue to rise in support of brand development and obtaining new listings.

There should however be a small degree of operational leverage with regard to other operating costs, such that operating margins and PBT levels do show some increase from our previous forecasts. Our last published Fully Adjusted PBT forecasts move across our three-year forecast horizon from (£0.10m), £0.03m and £0.07m to (£0.10m), £0.06m and £0.16m for FY16, FY17 and FY18 respectively.

Our new forecasts, along with some key operating metrics, are shown in the following table of Summary Financial Information.

[berny3] 02/2/2016 18:19

pim this was 2012 on 50,000 cases sales estimate 300,000 bottles

[petersinthemarket] 02/2/2016 17:34

''With an annual production of less than 100,000 bottles of gin, Monkey 47 is a craft distiller when compared to the 2.6 million cases of nine bottles of Beefeater gin that Pernod Ricard sold worldwide in fiscal year 2014/15 ............................ After compound annual growth of about 50 percent since 2010, craft distillers -- or those producing less than 100,000 cases a year -- now account for about 2 percent of the U.S. spirits market, the largest and most profitable in the world.''

A very useful find indeed Berny - this announcement by a major company gives us some revealing production figures to compare ourselves against - if dis ever gets around to giving us some real data to work on. GL, pete

[berny3] 01/2/2016 10:47

Interesting watching the growth of followers on promotions on Twitter for Blackwoods Gin. Last year we had 500 new followers over 5 days. On the current promotion 900 new followers over 3 days.

[berny3] 27/1/2016 10:47

This is something else I have been looking at on the accounts net CIRPS

31/03/2014 30/09/2013 30/09/2014 31/032015 30/09/2015
Cash 344 53 189 511 355
Inventories 64 120 115 230 239
Receivables 361 419 221 211 205
Payables 314 519 271 238 150

Net 455 73 254 714 649

CIRPS being Cash+ Inventory+ Receivables less Payables

Net figures Sept 14 was 55.8% of the March figure
Net figures Sept 15 was 90.8% of the March figure

Illustrates improvement in asset health

Cash figures Sept 14 was 54.9% of the March figure
Cash figures Sept 15 was 69.5% of the March figure

Illustrates improved cash management

Inventory figures Sept 14 was 179% of the March figure
Inventory figures Sept 15 was 104% of the March figure

Illustrates better management of inventories. less stock held up in the business. stock is working, better distribution.

Receivables figures Sept 14 was 61% of the March figure
Receivables figures Sept 15 was 97% of the March figure

This increase is likely attributable to the Supermarkets coming online. Our time to get paid has increased. However, this is offset by the improved cash positions.

Payables figures Sept 14 was 86% of the March figure
Payables figures Sept 15 was 63% of the March figure

The creditors are being paid quicker. This combined with the slower receivables is a negative. But this is likely a reflection of caution with suppliers and as financial position of the company improves I would like to see this being extended.

In summary the company has a focus on managing assets. Efficiencies with distribution are apparent in the inventory numbers. Cash management continues to improve. And it appears that taking on super markets and the economic environment for suppliers has put pressure on cash. Overall the health of the company is clearly improving. Their is room for improvement with suppliers and I would imagine as the health of the business continues to improve and hopefully order quantity continues to increase time to pay creditors could be extended which would further improve cash flow.

Let us know your thoughts Pete.

[berny3] 26/1/2016 22:37

just to keep you smiling Pete, we have another on-licence for Redleg.

[petersinthemarket] 26/1/2016 20:12

I'm not on any social website and that ''Interesting post from Japan ...'' reminded me why I made that decision - what a load of tripe.

[lr2] 26/1/2016 14:51

Brewin Nominees increase holding to 7%.

[berny3] 26/1/2016 07:46

Interesting post from Japan for Blavod. (A development from the normal posts).

[berny3] 26/1/2016 07:41

An Italian on-licence establishment for Blackwoods Gin

[dante17] 25/1/2016 15:31

Pete, one of the best distributors we have is in my opinion Winebow (for Blackwoods). They have more information on our gin on their site than the actual Blackwoods website! They r certainly a very professional outfit. If I'm not mistaken they will also be distributing RedLeg eventually, which can only be good news. Though based in New England, our gin has already found buyers in Louisiana, the mid-west and the west coast.

[petersinthemarket] 25/1/2016 14:13

Diageo just announced they renewed their distributor agreement.
Their share price doesnt seem to be rising much though.
Still, looks plenty of share price scope for an enterprising newcomer.

[petersinthemarket] 25/1/2016 12:10

Dante - yes mate, understood, do you have any data to show how hard they are working for us? pete