Distil Share Discussion Threads

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 16:46

Certainly Berny, I was just raising awareness for those looking in. Nice price recovery again, showing good support at this price. Have a good weekend, especially with some RedLeg to sip.

[berny3] 06/11/2015 15:47

Mr Haggis could we ignore as it often ruins a really good thread.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 15:43

ASSturius the Distil troll returns.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 12:59

Troll alert.

[asturius101] 06/11/2015 12:16

Thanks haggis tell ur wife I send my regards. See you at the 70's :)

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 11:45

55.16% of the stock is in the hands of major shareholders. Add Brewin to that.hTTp://distil.uk.com/investors/major_shareholders

[berny3] 06/11/2015 11:12

difficult to speculate and we have had quite a few false dawns previously. However, the market reflects that and if we are correct the makret is currently under valuing this.

I am trying to find details on how much the T1ps fund held in the company.

24/05/12 Notification of Major Interest shows The Bank of New York (Nominees) Limited a/c SF T1ps SCGF holding reducing holding to 10%



Currently on the web site The Bank of New York (Nominees) Limited @ 15.89%

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 10:46

That would make sense Berny, as production and stock may well ramp up before demand increases in the second half. The stock ramping up would also decrease half one profits until that stock is sold in half two, exaggerating the difference between half one and half two profits.Now that the company has added Tesco, the momentum will build faster as more companies feel these are products that they should stock. Basing time to profit on prior financial data may well turn out to be underestimating.

[berny3] 06/11/2015 10:28

Mr Haggis, just looking at overall figures I would imagine volume related costs would be included within the COGS and therefore currently reflected. The only thing I have noticed is that margins improve in the second half of the year. This may be due to some cost associated with production at Christmas being incurred in the first half of the year and sales recorded in the second half. I remain positive.

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 10:16

I see the troll is back, but I can't read what the troll has written because the troll is filtered. Did Brewin just buy another couple of million shares?

[haggismchaggis] 06/11/2015 08:02

I agree with your synopsis Berny, there's just one other factor I would add and that is the company has made some of the past cost cuts through its restructuring, these are not cost cuts related to volume so are one-off cost cuts. Going forward the cost cuts will only come from lower materials, manufacturing and distribution costs, caused by higher volume.The company is in very good shape and on a trajectory towards profitability, it is a bullish recovery play that may reap big rewards for those buying at what must now be the bottom.

[berny3] 05/11/2015 22:10

Mr Haggis this is the case in point margins have continued to be increased whilst volume has been driven partly by super market listing (Redleg in Sainsbury)The impact of Sainsbury is reflected in 2016 HY (it achieved a listing in April). The Tesco listing (more stores 400 versus 700) has been achieved before the busy Christmas listing period. Therefore it should everything being equal achieve an even higher growth in revenue 1st HY 2015 versus 1st HY 2016. Having Redleg available in Tesco for Christmas should drive general consumption and expose the brand to a wider audience which should build loyalty and lead to increased consumption in on trade elsewhere.

[petersinthemarket] 05/11/2015 19:42

Well done lads - you keep my spirits up!
pete

[haggismchaggis] 05/11/2015 17:40

Thanks Berny. Those numbers show how the company has made really good cost reductions over time and I expect there are more available with higher volume. Big margins combined with higher volume could attract decent bids for the company.

[berny3] 05/11/2015 16:25

Mr Haggis gross profit figures are

2012 19%
2013 23%
2014 24%
2015 60%
2016 HY 58% (just to add margins improved last year in the second half from 56% 1st HY

[haggismchaggis] 05/11/2015 16:19

Well Peter, higher volume equals lower cost per bottle. Supermarkets might initially be lower margin but the volume increase leading to lower cost per item will, in the longer term, bring the margins back up. At the same time, sales to non supermarket outlets will increase.I suggest drawing a chart showing margins over the past 2 years and keep it updated when results are announced.

[petersinthemarket] 05/11/2015 14:51

imo the 0.8 base is so solid now with all or most of the company shake up gone through that any thing less than this would be a major surprise. I suspect that the occasional modest buys/sells simply indicate different PI's joining or leaving. Some leaving out of sheer boredom and a few new hopefuls taking a punt, perhaps before leaving again later. But impossible to actually trade this right now. The tight share price range plus the broker/mm spreads reduces any possible advantage to near zero. On the business front, I'm still very concerned about dealing with supermarkets and the attendant inevitable hit on margin but I guess the die is now cast. The company appears to have decided as a matter of policy to go for volume even if that does bring margin concerns with it so we have to be patient and wait for production and distribution to continue building in the hope that we eventually become at least a medium sized player in this crowded booze market. GL, pete

[berny3] 03/11/2015 22:05

another for Redleg Rum

[berny3] 02/11/2015 22:51

DC - mkt price for drinks companies is normally via case value. A recent deal was Remy buying Bruiladich (2012). Price paid was £58mln on circa 55,000 cases production. Rounding things down circa £1,000 a case in sales. Distil is valued at £166 to £133 with a mrkt cap of £4mln. If the company can continue to increase case sales we could see a significant re-rating in company value.



look at fever tree on a p/e of 281



if you run your profit figures on that type of p/e where do you get the mrk cap?

[dietcoke197] 02/11/2015 18:42

Berny,

I'm not sure I understand what the discrepancy is that you are referring to?