Dignity Share Discussion Threads

[mtioc] 20/7/2023 14:50

Thanks.

Did not realise that Morgan Stanley value was at £6.60 to £9.90. Makes A. position look even odder. Apparently, A forced "liquidity backstop" in three years.

Channon has been saying this for a while (e.g. while CEO), but they still have to sort capital structure and invest in estate etc.. Hornby has not been a triumph even after 10 years.

Is there a Castelnau thread?

[exfortisd] 17/7/2023 11:05

for those still interested. phoenix mention in the May factsheet they believe DTY is worth £30/share vs the £5.5 paid to minorities. they say plan to create £1bn of equity value in the next 3 years, 30% of which will leak out to phoenix via the incentive fee.

meanwhile the clown at Artemis also published a factsheet, in which he brags about "negotiating directly" with the bidders to achieve the heroic price bump of 5%. this guy is also collecting fees on investor capital for such savvy dealmaking prowess...

dignity board chairman is still chairman of the regulated entity. despite perjuring himself by endorsing a deal at £5.5 that was marked up to £30 jst months later


hxxps://www.castelnaugroup.com/application/files/8416/8631/2239/Castelnau_Group_May_2023.pdf

hxxps://www.artemisfunds.com/en/gbr/adviser/investment-insights/2023/may/artemis-alpha-trust-quarterly-review-10-may

[tgoldie] 21/4/2023 08:42

@exfortisd - there is unfortunately no surprise here, Channon has tried (and failed) to crash the entire Australian economy all in the good sport of making a bit of money for himself.

[velocytongo] 20/4/2023 17:23

Personally, i think there will be the opportunity to indirectly acquire at lower prices via Castelnau. this will be a long and tortuous turnaround. my concern is that by the time the company is in good shape the death rate will start falling. i think they went too aggressively and too early on the price reduction and then got hit by increased costs, which is quite a toxic recipe when the company has as much debt as it has. i would not be surprised if further capital is needed to turn this around. it was atrociously mismanaged by the previous management and the mess is far greater than anticipated. this is quite often the case in reviving a flagging business. i wish phoenix well and will keep an eye out for the opportunity buy again. it's a shame as this has a fantastic position in the funeral market.

[otto fishbine] 19/4/2023 13:04

The latest RNS states they have 66.31% and the offer is unconditional. This excludes Artemis's 9.23%, which would bump acceptances up to 75.5%. Anyone have any thoughts as to why Artemis hasn't committed? Am I right in assuming it's a done deal over 75% acceptance? Thanks! The Letter of Intent doesn't mention price

BTW I am as disgusted as exfortisd as they are using company assets to effectively buy us out and trouser the upside. That's capitalism for you - greed, pure and simple

Otto

[exfortisd] 19/4/2023 11:24

also worth noting that shortly after the transaction completes they will likely 1) sell 7m of crems EBITDA into the trust at 20x EBITDA and 2) sell the residential properties potentially for up to 90m.
So potentially realising 230m from disposals. vs acquisition market cap of 280m

[velocytongo] 19/4/2023 11:17

Non binding letters of intent are useless - they are non binding!

[exfortisd] 19/4/2023 10:31

Worth noting that channon keeps 1/3 of value creation in CGL above the ftse all-share.
On my maths, if over a 3yr period DTY increases in value 5x, rest of the junk in CGL increases 5% annually and ftse increases 5% annually. Then gross NAV would have increased 3.5x or 50% annually. But after channon performance fee, net NAV would only increase 2.7x or 40% annually.
So phoenix sweep half the upside into their pocket via this transaction. complete disgrace.

[sackofspuds] 18/4/2023 21:52

Yes, Jake sold. Bid price ended tody at 552 so presumably may as well sell in the market now.

Is anyone else tempted to take the 7.33 CGL shares? I'm 40% down having bought in 2018.

Not sure I can see CGL price shooting up after the acquisition so maybe sell DTY now and buy CGL later.

[tombomb] 18/4/2023 14:36

So it is Jakes that has sold.

[exfortisd] 18/4/2023 09:50

Guess we will find out in T+2. he will presumably need to file an update given he owns above the notifaction threshold

[tombomb] 18/4/2023 09:07

It appears that one (or two) of the bigger shareholders has sold to Bidco. They have now declared 12.5m purchased shares (25%)......is this Jakez selling his 20%?????

[otto fishbine] 17/4/2023 19:11

You're absolutely correct - my bad. Artemis could be bottling it as you say. All very interesting......

[exfortisd] 17/4/2023 17:59

Jst to be clear re Artemis they have provided a non binding letter of intent. This is why it seems weird to me that they do not step up and make it a firm commitment, given at this point it surely creating an unhelpful (from bidco perspective) sense of uncertainty/speculation.

CEO has provided an irrevocable.

[otto fishbine] 17/4/2023 17:20

They currently have about 53% of the shares in the bag (including the irrevocable undertakings as I think irrevocable is irrevocable - the CEO hasn't voted either) so Jakes is pivotal as with his approx. 20% they're almost home and dry. Without his support they will likely fail to get to 75%. Personally, I think he'll either think it's a basket case and bail out at the last minute or he will hold out for an increased offer. Personally, I'm voting it down as they're trying to buy my investment for peanuts. Illogical, I know as it's biting my hand off to spite my face!

Otto

[exfortisd] 17/4/2023 09:19

interested to hear if anyone has any thoughts on jakes intentions?
if they cant get at least 75% of the shares then they have a big headache, and will likely need to increase offer.
Jakes has c19.5%. so Jakes plus some small holdouts from public or the merger arb funds can create a headache if they wanted too. whereas if Jakes backs the deal then they can probably get it done with artemis help.

separately there is the guy at Artemis with 9%. who originally provided a letter of intent. but he doesnt seem to have voted his shares yet. this is creating quite a damaging perception (in my opinion). so it looks to me like he might have changed his mind. If he still liked the deal I dont understand why he wouldnt have voted his shares by now. fair enough he might hold back for a bit initially, just to see how sentiment settles. but at this point they are clearly stressing out, peter wood had to do that interview in the Times, they have started a mandatory offer (which creates risk for them) etc etc. so the artemis holdout is now creating some legit headaches for them, which artemis presumably wouldnt do lightly, which makes me think they may have cold feet. but interested to hear other views

[exfortisd] 17/4/2023 09:03

previously they had the right to withdraw their offer if less than 75% of shares accepted.
now that they have started buying shares in the market, they are obliged to make the offer regardless of how many shares accept. so there could be a scenario where they end up buying a non control stake.
realistically if only a small amount of people tender shares, I would think it is likely they may increase offer. as they likely won't want part of the company remaining in a listed stub. Including possibly Jakes(?) as he doesnt seem to be supporting the bid so far at least.

[i like beer] 17/4/2023 08:35

Given the latest announcement, is there any chance of a further offer being made if the acceptance level doesn't go much higher or is the mandatory offer now it?

[tgoldie] 04/4/2023 07:53

It is now almost comedic that despite Channon running the show for 3 years 3 YEARS!!) since he had full control over the board, and prior to that he had a seat on the board via a patsy, that he and Davidson are still blaming the old regime for the shambolic performance. The big bet which had been researched for years apparently that slashing prices would result in huge market share gains has failed horribly and the current cash position they have caused is shameful - proof that one can read all the business books in the world but when it comes to running one you can’t rely on the words of others. The alternative sod course is this is all per of the plan to drive down share price, pick it up for a song (the Phoenix investment is probably still way out of the money), sell off the crematorium division for its £1.5bn value and dance off on holiday (just probably not to Australia…)

[tombomb] 29/3/2023 08:31

I am amazed people are still even trusting this deal. It was a mistake to let Channon in as CEO. This was always a long game to get control of the business for a cheap price.......its their stated investment strategy. They are trying to get the business on the cheap and publicly stating that fact. Reject the deal.

[exfortisd] 27/3/2023 15:43

thanks for flagging, had not seen that. pretty scammy of him to try scare people with the prospect of a rights issue, when their own investor deck says theyre sitting on hard assets worth multiples of current price. and have already got permission to sell assets in into the prepaid trust. company has never expressed any concerns around solvency. assume he is annoyed at the poor acceptance of the lowball offer so he tries to create some fake urgency

[1mgj] 27/3/2023 15:10

See Peter wood interviewed in today's Times. The offer seems a waste of time. Straight forward alternative is just to let Wood have a placement to take him to 30%

[exfortisd] 24/3/2023 11:11

anyone have any view on whats going on? is jakes holding out? Why hasnt the bloke from artemis voted his shares yet? are they struggling to raise the equity? surely they had commitments lined up in advance? this has been such a weird process from start to finish

[exfortisd] 08/3/2023 09:55

they delayed the castelnau placing - was meant to close 3rd march, punted it to 14th. 14th makes more sense as investors will want visibilty on the offer acceptance. it was more that the 3rd seemed quite an aggressive timetable to start with. but directionally sounds an incremental negative for their faith in the placing.
in fairness they are marketing it with a presenation which basically argues they are buying DTY on the cheap, so not sure why they expect people to accept the offer...
hxxps://www.castelnaugroup.com/application/files/2616/7603/8830/CGL_Raise_Final_Version_rs.pdf