Digitalbox Share Discussion Threads

[hastings] 07/4/2025 07:06:51

Good to see one of the new NED's picking up some shares last week.

[hastings] 29/3/2025 11:45:09

Thanks for posting, decent write up.Personally believe they can deliver and the broker forecasts don't look that demanding.Important thing is the capital light nature and ability to generate cash. Obviously a fair bit of investment during the current year, which alongside new launches and the likelihood of another acquisition should pave the way for a marked improvement on numbers.

[napoleon 14th] 29/3/2025 11:22:46

From Smaal Caps Live 280325:

DigitalBox (DBOX.L) - Final Results - These look pretty good:

The revenue growth isn't all organic, of course, but there is operational gearing, and net cash has increased despite the acquisitions made. One of the key points is that they have done this in very difficult advertising markets. Although it is worth noting that revenue is only just nudging where they were in 2021.

We know the forecasts are out of date, because the brokers couldn't update them during the "offer" period. These results are in line with the lastest improved revenue guidance, unsurprisingly, as the last trading statement was 2 months ago and after the period ended. Howevr, is this a miss on EPS:

That would probably be a little harsh. Probably the fairest assessment of where they are as a business is to take EBITDA and take off Depreciation, SBP and New product development = £423k. Which would be £313k on normal tax rates. So that puts them on a normalised, cash-adjusted P/E of around 10. Not necessarily cheap in current markets, but then there are multiple headwinds that can become tailwinds:

Global insights indicate a steady and measured market recovery throughout 2025, and we see no reason to question these forecasts at the current time. With improving conditions ahead, we are confident that the business is strategically placed to capitalise on the market's anticipated resurgence.

Plus, if this is achievable:

Over the next 3 years we have an ambitious plan to at least double the size of the business. This will involve organically launching and expanding brands to build audiences in English language markets.

They clarified on the IMC presentation that this isn’t all due to organic growth. However, doubling revenue means that EBITDA will probably be 3-4x higher with the operational gearing. It is fair to say that a £2-3m EBITDA company won't be on an EV of 1, so the big question is, can they deliver?

Given the previous strong track record, it seems a bit daft that the shares traded down on these results, but like so much of the market at the moment, if it doesn’t have a buyback in place or a tipster promoting it, then results get sold into.

[hastings] 26/3/2025 07:00:48

Good catch up with James Carter yesterday and plenty going on across the business including a further 2 new TV focused launches on track for this year.Main thrust near term is one of significantly upping investment (£600k) this year to increase scale and drive organic growth in a market that is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 10%. Further acquisitions also clearly on the agenda providing for additional synergies and increased reach. I'll add more in-depth comment in due course. Broker has put out forecasts for the current year stretching to 2027, which sees significant investment (current year profit curtailed as a result) but revenue expected to increase to £7m with a £2m PBT for 2027.Opening comment from Panmure Liberum."DigitalBox has ridden the industry and macro storms of 2023 and driven 2024 revenues up 30% pushing the EBITDA margin to over 17%. Broadening the portfolio combined with adaptation to the major platforms policies has also added resilience. Post the strategic review and 2024 development the Company is stepping up its NPD centred on its Verticals Strategy to take advantage of the secular growth in the mobile media market. The aim is to more than double revenues in the 2025-27 period. This requires some significant investment in 2025-26, but we forecast 2027 to deliver 3.7x 2024 EBITDA. Based on our reprofiled forecasts our 3-year earnings CAGR is 61.7%. All other things being equal management track record suggests a high probability of execution. We lift our TP to 10p based on achieving 2026 revenue as a stepping stone to a much higher mid-high teens value in 2027. We reiterate our Buy rating."

[napoleon 14th] 26/3/2025 01:20:44

Oh, & BTW...

hxxps://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/fy24-results-4

[napoleon 14th] 26/3/2025 00:56:51

The figs are good, not to say excellent, but too light on details
like profit after tax & eps.
On gross profit of £3.1M & mkt cap £5.4M I get an unbelievable P/E ratio of 1.7...
Market reaction says this is not quite right! However, are DBOX undervalued?
IMHO YES.

Looking forward to eyeing a complete set of accounts.

[napoleon 14th] 24/3/2025 13:20:44

From Small Caps Live, 21/03/25:

…is pleased to announce it has exchanged contracts (the "Exchange") to acquire the digital assets of The Life Network from Media Chain Group Limited for a total consideration of £200,000 (the "Consideration", together the "Acquisition"). The Acquisition is subject to completion of satisfactory testing by Digitalbox, as set out below, and is expected to be earnings enhancing on completion.

These are social media sites from Steven Bartlett’s former company, with the marketing agency sold to Brave Bison for £7.7m. Social Chain AG continues as an e-commerce company, so these appear to be non-core for them.

The most important part is that DigitalBox only pay £20k upfront and the rest is dependent on the business case panning out and being earnings enhancing. Of course, this isn’t that high a bar compared to 5% or so in interest on cash, but it means more than it does during the ZIRP times.

[hastings] 21/3/2025 09:35:50

Catching up with the CEO on results day, so will add comment on the back of that.

[hastings] 14/3/2025 07:07:08

Another small strategic addition announced, that should expand the reach and further build volume.

[hastings] 04/3/2025 08:01:53

I see Reach has delivered decent enough results, with digital being the real positive.Hopefully something of a read across to DBOX in terms of performance and sentiment.

[hastings] 31/1/2025 18:02:32

Thanks for posting, appreciated.I feel they are doing a very good job in what has been a difficult market. And they've learnt a lot I believe from the previous industry issues and taken the appropriate measures.Anyway, I'm waffling, so I'll leave it there.

[napoleon 14th] 31/1/2025 17:14:48

Small Caps Live Weekly 310125:

DigitalBox (DBOX.L) - End of Strategic Review
As expected, the strategic review concluded with no sale. Basically, the non-exec put in by Downing because they weren’t happy with the share price concludes that management is doing a great job!

And it makes sense not to sell at this juncture. As well as announcing the end of the review, they report a slight upgrade to revenue forecasts - £3.6m vs £3.5m previously. If they are trading this well and beating expectations in very difficult digital advertising markets, but the share price is not reflecting this, why sell out to someone who knows that they are being forced to sell and will offer a modest premium, at best.

[hastings] 28/1/2025 09:05:43

The holding has gone Paul, to another Downing Fund that is active, so my understanding is that the overhang has cleared. Why they didn't do that months ago is beyond me, but given it's now out of the way and trading is positive it's surely a bit like Yazz said!

[swiss paul] 28/1/2025 08:55:51

So how much time and money was wasted by these Downing clowns. Sorry boys your stuck with your holding. Only problem is how they get out and what will be the detriment of shareolders?

[hastings] 28/1/2025 07:33:16

Strategic review completed and as expected, they are pushing on with the existing strategy, but clearly keeping options open!Importantly, the recent positive trend and improved trading ahead of expectations appears to be continuing.

[hastings] 22/1/2025 16:22:28

The Downing issue looks as though it's been resolved, which is a real positive moving forwards. Not sure where it's gone, but I'm guessing that it could be one of the alternative Downing funds.

[hastings] 20/1/2025 08:15:32

I see RCH has delivered a positive ahead TU this morning with strong Q4 trading. That reinforces the recent news here and hopefully provides for a nice run ahead.

[hastings] 10/1/2025 07:37:27

I've added some further comment, more for anyone just taking a look as opposed to those that are already more familiar.I've been in touch with the CEO and should be speaking with him in due course, where I will add further comment on an interview based basis.https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/digitalbox-back-on-track-10-01-24

[hastings] 08/1/2025 10:54:59

My understanding is that the two year time limit as set out runs until December."Investment Manager, is currently estimating that the Managed Wind-Down could be completed within 2 years"Either way though, be it the summer of this year or December I expect the stake will A either move to an alternative fund or B placed with other investors. It's been an unfortunate shackle and disruption, but moving forward I believe DBOX could prove highly rewarding from the current base.

[red ninja] 08/1/2025 10:22:16

Downing was aiming for the return to be complete by the end of June 2025.

See

[hastings] 08/1/2025 08:30:27

I note that Patrick Brennan's vehicle is now the largest holder according to the latest info from last month. Now sitting on 19.73%, just above Downing, which I view as a positive.It'll be good to see a conclusion of the review shortly, which I also expect to reinforce and accelerate the current strategy and that should also enable the broker to issue an upgraded note.I believe that Downing has until the end of this year to to wind up its position given the fund closing, so those shares will find a new home one way or another.It appears that they haven't lobbed any on to the market since commencement of the review, which arguably suggests that progress and a solution to that situation is in play!

[napoleon 14th] 05/1/2025 16:34:44

From Small Caps Live:

Digital Box (DBOX.L)
It is easy to focus on the product here, which is a series of websites, such as The Daily Mash, TV Guide and soap opera fansites, and dismiss this as a poor quality business. However, the cash flow suggests otherwise. The key product here is actually their advertising platform. This allows them to create or acquire new websites, drive traffic to them and generate cash through advertising sales. This makes the payback on any acquisition very quick and often under a year.

Like many media businesses, the very weak UK advertising markets have hampered their ambitions. However, this also gives them an opportunity to deploy their significant cash pile and acquire cheaply at the moment. There is currently a strategic review in place, driven by Downing. Mark doesn’t expect this to lead to a takeover but to an acceleration of their growth strategy. Companies of this size tend to scare investors. However, growth can be a double-whammy. Not only will it dilute listing costs, but as the company scales, it will allow more investors to acquire a meaningful stake and enhance the rating.

[hastings] 31/12/2024 10:29:44

Nice to see a few buys this morning and a little nudge up.