Dart Share Discussion Threads

[shaker44] 05/2/2019 01:49

Thanks @realtiger! V interesting interview. Heapy always talks so much commonsense and inspires confidence in Jet2 future.

[castleford tiger] 04/2/2019 16:46

Growth to come from current bases in 2020 it would seem

tiger

[castleford tiger] 01/2/2019 08:58

Think you are right it could be very cautious.
Tiger

[snorkelparker] 01/2/2019 07:54

broker estimates / reports on TCG and TUI despite their accuracy certainly not helping either. I'm expecting an upside surprise, but with a very cautious commentary.
Unlike TCG which I'm expecting more of the same and an increase in debt, excluding the subtraction of summer booking deposits

[castleford t1ger] 31/1/2019 21:20

Collapsing as stated.

Strong SELL

[castleford tiger] 31/1/2019 18:11

Agree.
We await news mid month.

Tiger

[snorkelparker] 31/1/2019 16:00

Pretty ugly finish to the month...cant see even good news holding up much in the current Brexit climate. a steady sell down through out the day.. and 300k plus of volume..

[castleford tiger] 30/1/2019 18:27

Shouldn't you offset the pre payments with the services they still have to provide (deferred revenue)?

INDEED AND I DO BUT CHECK OUT TCG AND THEIR NET DEBT IS AFTER ALMOST 2B OF PREPAYMENTS

On a pure working capital basis you can include the pre payments, but if you are analysing the credit worthiness and balance sheet of the business I think you should offset them.

The question is what happens if they encounter a hiccup in their sales growth : the pre payments and related cash will evaporate very rapidly. The remaining debt won't.

Happened in 2008 when they cut capacity by 40%.

You must remember that we own the core fleet and almost 40 are brand new.
We wet lease if sales are good and we need to.

There is no other travel co/ Airline run as tight as this.

Have you got a copy of the annual report? It has some good info.

Tiger

[skanjete2] 30/1/2019 18:02

Shouldn't you offset the pre payments with the services they still have to provide (deferred revenue)?

On a pure working capital basis you can include the pre payments, but if you are analysing the credit worthiness and balance sheet of the business I think you should offset them.

The question is what happens if they encounter a hiccup in their sales growth : the pre payments and related cash will evaporate very rapidly. The remaining debt won't.

[castleford tiger] 30/1/2019 17:39

Woozle

The ceo at Dart hints that OTHERS will be in trouble well before Jet2 in that recent article.
I agree the current lowing in bookings and weak prices will be hurting TCG.

I still see their equity worth 0-10p.

The Chinese /Hong kong based operator has bought strongly and has propped the price up.
Cannot last.
Skanjete.

Why 31.12.18 and not year end? which is march>
Tiger

The last of the big plane order was delivered last week.
I am not sure if they are allowed to have debt off balance sheet now.

Position at last year end was that if you include Pre payments we were in net cash not debt

[skanjete2] 30/1/2019 17:29

Is anyone having an idea or an estimate of net debt at 31/12/2018?

I noticed the debt is running up quite strongly over de last few years (from around 2x EV/EBITDA to about 5x EV/EBITDA eind of last year. )

[woozle1] 30/1/2019 09:54

TCG bonds, having rallied, are now falling again and are 5% above the lows. That should concern equity investors because if the debt holders think they'll get 68p in the £, then the theoretical value of the equity is nil versus the current market cap of £550m.

TCG director buying was a confidence trick to get them through the Jan bookings. Just like last night's vote in Parliament, it does not fix much and buys time. The unavoidable truths for TCG are that its costs are too high, it has too much debt and the competition is leaner and better financed.

I wonder if Comrade Jezza gets in, he'll nationalise TCG, which is what happened in the 60/70s. That might save the debt but not the equity.

[snorkelparker] 30/1/2019 08:36

Saying that I was a buyer of a lump yesterday on the way down at 8.18. And a little bit at the close

[snorkelparker] 30/1/2019 05:15

very cheap is not a good sign in any business..isolated routes or new offerings maybe, but need to keep pricing power and capacity / load factors in view.. and deterioration in either and things could get ugly in this current climate.

[joe king1] 29/1/2019 18:31

Castleford Tiger29 Jan '19 - 17:57 - 5163 of 5163

Hey up Muppets are back...........



Same thing was said on CAKE, Carillion, BOO, FRR, VOG, etc, etc....

300p will arrive over the coming months.

[castleford tiger] 29/1/2019 17:57

Hey up Muppets are back...........

Snorkel no idea why but some very cheap deals being done on flights and holidays

tiger

[joe king1] 29/1/2019 17:40

Looks like a spike on the long term chart, price will come back to around 300 / 350p

Cesspit AiM is a game, staying long will be a losing hand.

[castleford t1ger] 29/1/2019 15:13

Strong SELL

[snorkelparker] 29/1/2019 10:09

bit of a sell down last few days, Brexit nerves back at the forefront again, buying opportunity I wonder ?

[snorkelparker] 28/1/2019 14:07

Interesting article...obviously very cautious on Easyjet.. already poached staff which is concerning.. when Heaply refers to being on plan ..wonder what that equates to in profitability for this financial year

[davebowler] 26/1/2019 12:38

hTTps://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6627399/Jet2-boss-issues-stark-warning-Brexit-weighs-airline-rivals.html

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2019 15:12

good man. Action will all be around the trading update mid February

Tiger

[tongosti] 24/1/2019 14:55

Lastly, as I have always said on this board, I respect anyone's game. Both long and short term styles work for those who apply them the right way and consistently. For every successful investor out there is an equally successful trader someplace else. Back to DTG: depending on upcoming company update and the state of wider markets then, I may even consider getting long. For a change!

[tongosti] 24/1/2019 14:42

I was negative for a month because my trading horizon is fairly short and which could be days /weeks / months as long as the trend is intact. Otherwise I respect my stop loss (which I always use without fail) and get out when things change. I maybe bullish short term and bearish long term on the same very asset (any asset for that matter) for a very long list of reasons. As you say, that's because I play a different game to yours - good seeing we are on the same page on this one.

[castleford tiger] 24/1/2019 14:17

tongosti

It was a serious question.

i read your post as

SP - covered last week of Dec as price failed to follow through the 750 level.

So i looked in December not in November.

I can see you said what is quoted. However for a month after that you are very negative on dart.

Look you trade the markets fine . I buy shares. I dont short.

Also just say when you go long or short its not a state secret

tiger