Dart Share Discussion Threads

[tongostl] 11/3/2019 11:51

Someone's deep in the red with TCG lols.

[xc1] 11/3/2019 11:39

We shall see.As for age, you've no idea dude. :-)All others on this thread are old kunts in their 80's, almost dead. Lol

[wagnerlove] 11/3/2019 11:12

Lol Xc1, I'm younger than you. Who cares anyway? TCG will end up being an expensive lesson for you mate.

[woozle1] 11/3/2019 11:00

xc1, i see from tcg bb you want to retire in 20 years time. if you are relying on tcg to help you out, i suggest you extend your horizons to 40 years. w1

[xc1] 11/3/2019 10:23

Are you angry codger?

[wagnerlove] 11/3/2019 10:07

Erm, its all in the annual reports you plonker. Learn how to read, would be a better use of your time then using your multiple accounts to post nonsense on here. You are going to get zeroed in Thomas Cook and there will be tears.

[xc1] 11/3/2019 09:49

Hilarious watching oaps thinking they are accountants. Completely wrong

[wagnerlove] 11/3/2019 09:34

To illustrate Tiger's point about this being a holiday company NOT an LCC: fuel made up 22% of total operating costs back in 2014, but this has fallen to just 9.8% of total costs in 2018. Accomodation was 22% of total costs in 2014, and this has increased to 37% of total in 2018. Fuel costs in 2018 were £222.3m, while accomodation was 3.7X more at £837.7m, and staff costs bigger than fuel at £336m.

[xc1] 11/3/2019 09:06

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6790599/Ryanair-boss-Just-5-airlines-survive-fuel-prices-rise-summer-strikes-looms.html

[castleford tiger] 11/3/2019 08:53

xc1 we are a holiday company and tbh its far worse for TCG who are trying to sell the airline.
You want to take to 33p and move on as you will finish with very little

tiger

[davebowler] 11/3/2019 08:39

Personally I think that Michael Leary was purposefully leaving out Jet2 as he didn't want to give it publicity as a winner and potential threat.

[xc1] 11/3/2019 08:23

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6790599/Ryanair-boss-Just-5-airlines-survive-fuel-prices-rise-summer-strikes-looms.htmlBad news for budget airlines, such as jet2.

[fokker45] 11/3/2019 07:11

Thanks Wagnerlove for a very informative post. I will still use the 94p eps for 2019, which gives a PE of 8.8. I am happy investing in companies growing consistently without margin erosion sitting on a single digit PE. If 94p is conservative, and it comes in higher, then that's great. I am also pleased that we have no new bases in 2019. From personal experience in low cost and regional airlines, I used to prefer expansion from existing bases with improved frequency first, and then new routes. This created much better staff efficiency (the bigger the crew base, the better), and marketing budget could be kept at roughly same level, economies of scale. It was also much less risky adding at existing bases than going into a new market despite lots of revenue modelling, you never got the forecasts right.

[castleford tiger] 11/3/2019 07:04

Questioned answered but no to the MAX.

Why did we not figure in the discussion .......pretty simple i think.

We are no longer an Airline. We are a modern holiday company that offers seats for sale.
For whats its worth i do agree with him that TAP/NORWEGIAN/TCG/WIZZ will all go into bigger companies.( exception tcg)
FLYBE may change its name but the model does not work.
TCG will be broken up with very little for shareholders if anything.

Its a bloodbath out there right now with Holidays being sold at cost or below to shift them.
TUI in april have 5 nights 4x hotel in Venice inc flights at 499.Thats below cost.

The model JET2 have with full vertical integration is the leanest of them all.
I expect a tougher start to new year from April on margins than last year when we were still in the post Monarch Spike ( reduction in capacity). However we will grow as TCG and others cut capacity.
The chances of TCG surviving 2019 are very low in my opinion. Sub 30%.

That would bring about a massive change in the market.

Tiger

[fokker45] 11/3/2019 06:46

Shaker44: Jet 2 use the second version (Classic) and third version (New Generation). They have no fourth generation (MAX) 737s, like the aircraft in the Ethiopian crash. Sadly these things happen, I have a flight on a Classic 737 later today in a third World country. It will statistically be a lot safer than the road journey, that's for sure.

[snorkelparker] 11/3/2019 06:44

Following on from last post on Jet2 growth,I believe the quota restrictions announced by the EU last year restricting flights for 2019 to 2018 numbers has been lifted after pressure from the obvious countries Spain, Greece etc
This was a big worry that would have clipped Jet2's expansion plans. Yet to see any formal news piece confirming this just heard it from an aviation friend.

[snorkelparker] 11/3/2019 06:40

I think Jet2's new planes are 737 800 Next Gen rather than Max, from what i can find it's the software in Max that was an addition from Next Gen something to do with compensating for a larger forward siting engines. but not an expert on aviation technicalities so interested to find out more. As this seems to be a problem. I for one will avoid Max 8's especially in Asia where pilot experience might be less.

[shaker44] 11/3/2019 06:24

Anyone know if jet2 have any 737 max 8/9 like the Ethiopia crash? China grounded 97 today until satisfied about safety. (Politics too maybe..)

[snorkelparker] 11/3/2019 04:29

Thanks Wagner for a good and informative post, certainly paints a conclusive picture on the relationship between broker and company.
My only reservation was the last guidance for 2019/20 with the first half figures, just can't get the rational why DTG should have steered them down so low when bookings are increasing. The presence of shorts at that point just gets my suspicious nature thinking that this was an AIM 100 stock being played..
Not looking like the fall of the cliff situation is likely with summer 2019 already up, just hope they steer themselves through this patch with just less profit growth rather than a contraction of overall profitability.
That said all this may not reflect in the current SP, cant see why Tui should have lost 60% of it's value from it's high. Unless I'm missing something its well run, pays a great div and apart from slower growth there doesn't seem anything particularly bad on the horizon. At these levels it maybe worth spreading some from DTG onto Tui

[shaker44] 11/3/2019 04:24

I agree with all you say share price I suspect much of tcg valuation is attributed to the brand. We have seen how tenuous brand values are with m&s,Tesco,BP etc. Still got to produce earnings ultimately

[shaker44] 11/3/2019 04:24

I agree with all you say share price I suspect much of tcg valuation is attributed to the brand. We have seen how tenuous brand values are with m&s,Tesco,BP etc. Still got to produce earnings ultimately

[snorkelparker] 11/3/2019 04:11

I think as knowledgeable as Micheal is he doesn't always get his calls right. whilst the casualties are probably going to increase..10 years ago he called for Jet2 to go to the wall when oil was at 130.. well that wasn't one of his best calls. Jet2 are now not only flourishing but a serious thorn in his companies side. I would predict more pain for Ryan from Jet2, maybe even on there own turf depending on how BREXIT pans out.
TCG I still think is knackered and likely to be restructured one way or another, it's lunacy that the airline is valued over 1 bill. Do people realize it doesn't own it's aircraft so go figure where that valuation comes from. Probably making the airline look attractive by shifting profits between the holiday and airline component. Its a pig and that's the only lipstick that can be put on that fella.

Growth at Jet 2 will continue but maybe at a lesser pace 10 to 20% increase in passengers, For a very cautious company to be actively looking to expand it's fleet it shows that they are confident of further growth.
The increasing winter losses are a worry as all this increase summer capacity equals increased losses if winters remain soft. But sure these are being addressed in some shape by Meeson and Heaply and would like to see what unfolds there.

So lets see what happens to Mr O'Learys predictions.
Easyjet is the worry at the top of my list.

[tongosti] 10/3/2019 19:17

What do you think?