Dart Share Discussion Threads

[snorkelparker] 05/3/2019 03:29

Yields are obviously down and to what effect this is going to have on profitability is to be seen. judging by the deals out there its pretty brutal, my only worry is should we be invested in this sector full stop.

Jet2 are finding it tough like others but this market is for the nimble and those with low cost bases. I really don't rate TCG chances in a prolonged price war, they have no free cash. Once the advance bookings cash are burnt up and the high street overheads continue to bite who is going to fund them ? and at what %
The brand will survive but at what cost to shareholders ?
interesting times ahead, but i do think Jet2 will be standing taller in 3-5 years

[snorkelparker] 05/3/2019 01:49

Thanks CF,

What period are these reported for, i'm guessing 2018 ?
5m in 2 years would be huge and then not far from the number one spot..

Figures from April 2017 release

Rank Licence Holder ATOL Number Passengers
1 TUI UK Ltd 2524 5386845
2 Jet2holidays Ltd 9618 2936420
3 Thomas Cook Tour Operations Ltd 1179 2389227
4 Expedia, Inc 5788 1416227
5 On The Beach Ltd 10017 1302261
6 We Love Holidays Ltd 10989 804618
7 British Airways Holidays Ltd 5985 786000
8 Travel Republic Ltd 10581 610269
9 Virgin Holidays Ltd 2358 388249
10 BravoNext SA 11082 384737


Jet2 added 874,000 in a year alone..

[castleford tiger] 04/3/2019 22:49

Hope you have pal
More for us to buy

[castleford t1ger] 04/3/2019 19:50

Strong SELL

[castleford tiger] 04/3/2019 19:34

Rank

Licence Holder

ATOL
Number

Passengers Licensed

no passengers
1 TUI UK Ltd 2524 5678163
2 Jet2holidays Ltd 9618 3810320
3 Thomas Cook Tour Operations Ltd 1179 2471042
4 On The Beach Ltd 10017 1302261
5 Expedia Group, Inc 5788 1178450
6 British Airways Holidays Ltd 5985 939802
7 We Love Holidays Ltd 10989 804618
8 easyJet Airline Company Ltd 11446 705020
9 BravoNext SA 11082 568096
10 Travel Republic Ltd 10581 554102

As you can see the JET2 figure continues to rise. Now just shy of 4m.
More than TCG and on the beach added together,

Jet 2 should be up to around 5m within 2 years. The biggest TUI is falling.

Tiger

[sogoesit] 01/3/2019 09:28

Okaayy... found them, the Croatian Cruises.
Ha, I have stock in a hotel company with assets there. Never looked at it as a holiday destination.
Interesting, a whole panoply of tourist services... Easyjet Mark2?
Thanks wilddcw.

[wilddcw] 28/2/2019 19:08

don´t forget the cruises !

[sogoesit] 28/2/2019 18:52

Still learning about this stock.
Seems Jet2 have upmarket holiday businesses as well:



Interesting how they differentiate... wondering if the different customer base fly in different plane classes...

[shaker44] 28/2/2019 12:11

My bad, sorry. I read it as 527, not 520.7 (specsavers??!).
Looks very healthy.

[castleford tiger] 28/2/2019 10:37

indeed they have debt of

net cash after borrowings is 460.20m
pre- payments were 520.7

So i get net debt at 60.5m.

Look at the assets they have as well.

TCG had net debt of 380m or so AFTER the 1.5b in pre payments were taken off

Tiger

[woozle1] 28/2/2019 09:26

Ct, they have net debt and not net cash. The key is that they are generating loads of cash to service that debt, which is a) very serviceable and b) will be paid off within 5 years. I’m stark contrast with TCG who are selling the family silver to pay down debt and who will probably need a rights issue to pursue a different strategy.
W1

[shaker44] 28/2/2019 08:42

Interesting analysis Tiger so If I understand it correctly cash net of borrowings and customer prepay is negative £67m? Tiny for a company of this size,assets, and value.

[castleford tiger] 28/2/2019 08:03

Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS eps p/e
31-Mar-19 3,087.50 175.05 96.00p 8.4
31-Mar-20 3,535.00 153.15 83.60p 9.6
31-Mar-21 3,941.00 155.30 85.50p 9.4

Always clever how management upgrade current year when the KNOW we have over acheived and yet leave future forecasts unchanged.

With 20% approx growth being maintained into current year ( starts in a month ) and the following year i think we at least hit this years targets even if costs have increased or prices have been cut.

However i feel after a possible tough 2019 on pricing ( following on from a weak winter due to over capacity)things kick into gear going forward.
Pressure on TCG and TUI will be more intense and i expect casualties this year.

I do think the trading statement will be very cautious as we can hardly tell our competitors just how we are taking their market share!

As for those that think we need to raise cash well they cannot read accounts.

As a result, the Group's cash and money market deposit balances increased in the first half by GBP389.0m (2017: GBP242.1m) to GBP1,397.6m (2017: GBP931.1m), which included advance payments from Leisure Travel customers of GBP520.7m (2017: GBP376.8m) in respect of their future flights and holidays. Net cash, stated after borrowings of GBP937.4m (2017: GBP574.2m), was GBP460.2m (2017: GBP356.9m), an increase of 29%.

I remain of the opinion the shares are worth £15.00 short term 18 months and £20 in 3 years.
Tiger

[aneeda avadump] 27/2/2019 15:45

Very bearish chart.

Pro traders piling out.

Price will most likely collapse, even more when news is realeased due to impending rights issue.

Jet2 is pikey budget airways.

[castleford t1ger] 27/2/2019 15:13

Strong SELL

300p coming,

[castleford tiger] 26/2/2019 16:29

lost me sorry
Tiger

[knowing] 26/2/2019 16:11

Yep you know why.

[castleford tiger] 26/2/2019 15:54

Digital spy about a week ago. Just a snippet from the full article.

Any reason you ask?

cheers
Tiger

[knowing] 26/2/2019 15:34

Wonder where you got that news !!

[castleford tiger] 26/2/2019 15:20

It appears that British holidaymakers aren’t too worried about travelling to Europe after the scheduled Brexit day (March 29, 2019) as holiday booking figures have revealed a huge increase in trips to the continent this summer compared to last year.

Lastminute.com’;s reservation data found that the most popular destination for European holidays after Brexit is Greece, with a huge increase of 55 per cent for trips to be taken between April and December 2019.

Lets hope DART have found the same

Tiger

[castleford tiger] 25/2/2019 22:19

We agree
Into Manchester tonight on Swiss and plenty of jet 2 movements
Tiger

[tongosti] 22/2/2019 17:02

The future is by definition an unknown variable chief. Hence, words like "it will" - when referring to future events - are complete nonsense. Everything in this business can only be a probable, never a certain event.

[pjleeds] 22/2/2019 08:39

Nostressretired. Well said Sir

[nostressretired] 22/2/2019 07:36

I'm new to this discussion board. Firstly, thanks for the sensible comment from the likes of Tiger etc, unlike some on here. Don't know why they are on here really. I've supported DTG since their inception and loved the growth. It will continue for a long time yet regardless of the mindless comment by some members on here.