Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[psychicdoc] 06/6/2002 13:59

oak are you still holding agt, i sold out in 60's,looking to buy again , what do you think

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:59

EK, I can understand what MIATA said but free floated has different meaning.

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:56

You can talk about EPS and wait for the fair price based on the EPS if you are happy with that. BUT SURELY, INSTITUTION DID NOT PAY DANKY BASED ON EPS AND THEY KEEP ACCUMULATING. is that funny?

IMO, the fair price is not less than 60p per share or $3.40. DYOR.

[easykill] 06/6/2002 13:54

oak

you say "MIATA, you are telling the proportion of ADR to the total of 248m ordinary shares but it does not mean the 86% are all free floated. Do you know what I mean?"

I think it means that 86% of TOTAL issued share capital is in ADRs and the rest are in ordinary shares traded here.

So only 14% of Danka stock is in ordinary stock, which is tradeable in the UK. The rest is held as ADR's which are only tradeable in the US.

[psychicdoc] 06/6/2002 13:54

ff will you please stop the guv has spoken,
the guv is trying to say have patience and in 12-18 mths this may be 15-20$ not unreasonable, considering it was $50 once, if the turnaround is done in a sensible manner as mentioned

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:51

Once again,
first NOT REVENUE is the problem BUT ACTUAL DOLLAR OF GROSS PROFIT TO RUN THE BUSINESS, REDUCE THE DEBT AND PAY THE RE-ENGINEERING. THIS IS TO FIND STABILITY AT THE LOWEST LEVEL OF REVENUE.

After that TALK ABOUT GROWTH FROM NEW DIRECTION OF BUSINESS, in which I am sure that the portion of revenue from retail supply, maintenance & rental will be less than historical 60% because the significant increase in selling equiptment, software & networking.

Danka now is in the first phase above! not the second phase!

Do you understand or not?? Why still talk about revenue, revenue, revenue?
Once again, it is OK for the revenue to go down to the lowest level as long as the ACTUAL DOLLAR OF GROSS PROFIT IS ENOUGH TO RUN THE BUSINESS, REDUCE THE DEBT AND PAY THE RE-ENGINEERING UNTIL FINALLY THE BUSINESS IS STABLE & READY FOR GROWTH.

LGD will do the same if the CEO is smart.

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 13:45

The stock has risen nearly a 1000% and you say it is to early to talk about EPS.....LOL......

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:41

To early to talk about EPS for me personally.
It is about to find stability in running the business and re-arrange new strategy for growth (such as re-engineering, etc). Once Danka can find growth then I will talk about EPS.

Can we talk about EPS in your favourite share "LGD"? RUBBISH.

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 13:39

Exactly my point....the company will be fine IF the revenue picks up.....what happens if it doesn't....

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 13:39

Exactly my point....the company will be fine IF the revenue picks up.....what happens if it doesn't....

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:36

Once again, no problem with declining in revenue as long as the actual dollar of gross profit margin can be maintain at $140m or more for every quarter.

I believe, when the sector turnaround, the revenue will pick up & the actual dollar of gross profit will increase through $150m+ and with more efficient SG&A.

THIS IS THE ISSUE.

[psychicdoc] 06/6/2002 13:34

ff better close your short soon, see i am beginning to even worry about you know

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 13:32

But after all that they generated just 1.1p of EPS in Q4.......not a lot after all that restructuring and the selling of DSI.....

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 13:27

Lets talk about the total revenue and the "actual dollar" of gross profit from Q4 2001 to Q4 2002:

Total revenue
Q4 2001 = $496,311,000
Q1 2002 = $401,668,000
Q2 2002 = $381,310,000
Q3 2002 = $400,554,000
Q4 2002 = $371,643,000

Actual dollar of gross profit:
Q2 2001 = $92,915,000
Q1 2002 = $139,871,000
Q2 2002 = $129,558,000
Q3 2002 = $140,810,000
Q4 2002 = $139,642,000

So, although the total revenue is not stable yet but the actual dollar of gross profit is quite stable at around $140m. Of course percentage wise it has increased significantly.Danka seems to be able to run the business with a gross profit of at least $140 million, while all programs to profitability is well run on the right track.

Do we need very-very worry about declining the revenue of maintenance? Is it true that the revenue from maintenance is 60% of total revenue?

No, the 60% portion is the revenue from:
1. Retail supply
2. Maintenance
3. Rental

As I said few weeks ago that in the actual dollar Danka made $25m gain in this part of business. That's why Danka can maintain the actual dollar of gross profit at around $140m.

The portion of revenue in retail supply, maintenance & rental actually has decreased almost in every quarter from 61.5% in Q4 2001, to 60% in Q3 2002 and 59.5% in Q4 2002. But again the actual dollar did not decrease but increase. Please take the actual dollar of profit to guarentee the profitability.


So, the big issue is whether Danka can still generate $140m or more gross profit in Q1 2003 or not, whatever will happen with revenue.

Another issue is the SG&A cost. Can it be reduced or not (in the CC Lang said possible)

The interest payment, notes payment and additional $4m debt reduction is not big issue because Danka has prepared to pay it from $50m they have. No problem to pay debt if the shareholder's equty fund can increase anyway.

[psychicdoc] 06/6/2002 13:16

true ff but look at what things were like over 1 yr ago from that point on the comp is much better, IF revenue is up this quarter dont you think it is going to fly

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 13:10

Yes... and also look at the revenue and the profits the company used to generate.....LOL

If things were not tight they would not have reduced the capital expenditure on the rental side of the business which is further impacting revenues..

Whatever spin you try and put on the issue.....having to make extra finance payments is not good news.... especially with declining revenues and extra infrastructure costs involved with the Oracle implementation....

IMHO

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 11:59

MIATA, you are telling the proportion of ADR to the total of 248m ordinary shares but it does not mean the 86% are all free floated. Do you know what I mean?

[easykill] 06/6/2002 11:18

MIATA

thanks alot. Much appreciated.

[miata] 06/6/2002 11:16

"As of March 1, 2002, 248,084,622 ordinary shares of 1.25 pence each of Danka were issued and outstanding, of which approximately eighty-six percent (86%) were held in the form of American depositary shares. Each American depositary share represents four ordinary shares. As of March 1, 2002, 250,644 6.50% senior convertible participating shares of $1.00 each were issued and outstanding. "

[forfaiter] 06/6/2002 11:09

I know they have been paid ...but they will be accounted for in the Q1 period.So it will be interesting to see if they can carry on the same level of debt reduction....imho

[easykill] 06/6/2002 11:07

MIATA

with all due respects, you have not really answered the question. All you have done is referred me to the SEC filings. You have a figure of 86%, that figure has been derived by yourself. Now all I am asking, is for you to briefly provide how this figure is derived.

When you provide such a figure, you should have some PROOF to back up that figure. You shouldnt expect others to do the research to prove the figure you have provided. That repsonsibility is upon yourself. Surely you have the data at hand as otherwise how did you come to that 86% figure ?

[oaklandsway] 06/6/2002 11:04

Good morning friends,
86% of free float is not true. DYOR MIATA.

The $16m notes had been paid by now (see the news on 19 March 2002), Danka has got $50m free cash so no problem to spend $16m.

SP, your posts are good & realistic.

[miata] 06/6/2002 11:02

EK you have asked this question before and I have answered it before - the figures are set out in the documents produced by the company which are also filed with the SEC. Happy reading.

[easykill] 06/6/2002 10:51

MIATA

you say 86% of free float of shares are in the US. Could please provide briefly how this figure is derived. Can you please provide the SEC filing references where the investment bank purchased DNK stock to be traded on Nasdaq - would like to know the quantity purchased to see how the 86% is derived. thanks.

[miata] 06/6/2002 10:44

If you read the information yourself you will understand the error of that statement.