Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[webley] 23/5/2002 09:13

blockbuy - no problem

Someone mentioned the other day a website where the 4pm conference can be heard live. Can't find the post. Anyone remember please.

[blockbuy] 23/5/2002 08:50

Webley - 22 May'02 - 15:51 - 3783 of 3824


thanks for the correction.

[blockbuy] 23/5/2002 08:49

morning all, cheerfull start. bodes well for 4pm

[chestnuts] 23/5/2002 08:24

This is going to be a good day and hope fully we can hold i bet we don't here much from ff

[serious punter] 23/5/2002 08:22

Mornin Pippin

I think we'll have a good day here and on EDG :0)

[lex1000] 23/5/2002 08:21

Very confident about DNK.Excellent recovery play.Shorters will imho have to close today as share heads back up to $4 plus again.They've overplayed the volatility scaremongering card.With 30% drop,DNK undervalued and looks cheap to me.Investing favours the brave and why I topped up at 60.5p.Good luck to all holders.

[pippin] 23/5/2002 08:19

Still here SP, as I said I would be!

Good post Solis.

[psychicdoc] 23/5/2002 08:08

again ff misleading about his comments regarding revenue etc, plenty of early buys and looking atan ask of about 66p at least to come to terms with the us, looks like ff is surely going to get burnt soon

[serious punter] 23/5/2002 08:06

Mornin All

Good factual post Solis.

IMHO, the reason why DANKY/DNK dropped last week was due to a large US shorter, who took advantage of indecisive market opinion over Danka's performance. At the end of the day Danka is forging ahead, cost cotting, improving margins, sales and appointing heavyweights to move the business forward. Achieving ISO 9000 now enables it to pitch for larger contracts.

[forfaiter] 23/5/2002 00:39

357....Is Oaks your daddy ?...

[357aman] 23/5/2002 00:38

forfaiter,
You are losing again, you are a shorter, you can't challange Oak,
because you have nothing to say, you found someone smarter than yourself
that can read your mind! Now solution for you with big loss in DNK is a
long term loan otherwise ready for.... Good luck!!

[forfaiter] 23/5/2002 00:38

Mickharkins.....I agree concerning the covenants.....no big deal to change..

The banks didn't pull the plug as they would have lost to much...better to keep it afloat until they can sell off the profitable divisions....returning their stake...

The finance agreement has been structured to ensure they get their money back by 2004 ...the LIBOR + 5% reflects the risk they are taking.....hence the structured capital repayment schedule....

[forfaiter] 23/5/2002 00:30

Oaks...Your losing it big fella.....how much are you down ?

[mickharkins1] 23/5/2002 00:29

ff

Based on my limited knowledge of banking covenants, I wouldn't pay that much attention to them. If the bank didn't pull the plug a year ago, it certainly wont do so now, even if Danka breach some covenants.

Their gearing ratio is now a lot healthier and if they wanted I'm sure they could renegotiate the loans. The bank will allow Danka to postpone the 2004 deadlines (you refer to) if necessary. I'm sure the banks are now a lot more confident that Danka are recovering and the risk of them not being paid is diminishing - extend the loans another couple of years and continue to make some healthy repayment interest. All in MHO.

Mick

[millionaire] 23/5/2002 00:29

no my cyber stalker.

[oaklandsway] 23/5/2002 00:28

Only Liar who will tell you about Danka's retail service, supplies and rentals businesses get worse again and again !!! They highlight the decrease in revenue but did not tell you the increase in net profit!! The motivation is clear: shorters are trying to steal the shares from your hands.

Retail service, supplies and rentals down from Q4 2001 $254 million to Q4 2002 $221 million but the cost was also down from $171 M to $131 M.

Does it matter, worse or better in effort and profit? calculate firstly the gross profit in Q4 2001 was $83 M and Q4 2002 was $90 M. LESS EFFORT BETTER GROSS MARGIN BUT BETTER IN NET PROFIT. $7 million better net profit.

If someone think you are stupid then the he will not show you the facts about bigger net profit in retail service, supplies and rentals above just for the shake of scremongerers. It is PROFITS that will be the most important to contribute in earning, increase free cash flow and to increase the shareholders value. Shorters scare about this facts of achievement that has been made by Danka last quarter.

LIAR will say the most important is the bigger in revenue although the capital expenditure is bigger and less in net profit.This had mislead Danka shareholders during 1998-2000 and please do not follow LIAR again from now on.

"Check this fact: the Capital expenditures in fiscal 2002 were $50.6 million, compared to $68.9 million in the prior year. Much of the decrease is attributable to the company's de-emphasis of the capital-intensive rental business."

Meaning Danka reduced capital-intensive rental business, I guess because the rental so far produce high revenue but not guarentee the best way to make profit in long run. Above all, the rental equiptments must be upgraded in 3-5 years after installation, the cost of writting-off will be huge and painful for shareholders (e.g. the write-off from analog to digital cost the company a lot and must be supported by new credit facility to put it back on the right track).

Only stupid who will think that it is better to run business with bigger capex, bigger revenue but less net profit. Only liar who will highlight that bigger revenue will always be the best or reduced in revenue will always be the worst.
Danka has reduced capex to $18 million consiquently reduced revenue of $33 million but at the same time increase net profit of $7 million. DANKA IS SMART because they got $25 million extra money that can be used to reduce debt, increase free cash flow, upgrade software and improve digital training programs for field sales and technical support staffs. That means Danka continue to invest in providing world-class service to their clients but in sharper focus.

WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
Danka has developed new go-to-market strategies and business plans to better target the spending and investments and have begun the rollout of new business systems that will improve the ability to serve customers and at the same time begin to generate savings from increased productivity." AT THE SAME TIME THE ADDITIONAL FREE CASH FROM REDUCED CAPEX IS USED BETTER FOR REDUCING DEBT OR INCREASE FREE CASH FLOW.

DANKA also improved its inventory and accounts receivable position SIGNIFICANTLY during the year by a combined $123.0 million. Inventories dropped during fiscal 2002 by 34.5% from $199.5 million to $130.6 million. Accounts receivable, net declined by 15.6%, from $346.4 million to $292.4 million.

WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS FOR THE FUTURE REVENUE & NET PROFIT?
Lots of benefit from new investment to expand the world-class service (including with ISO 9001) to their clients but in sharper focus, such as the capability to give third party services. NEW CONTRACT FROM STAPLES is only one of the samples. From this one alone, the sales and service revenues is expected to increase more than $100 million dollars over 36-month of the agreement with Staples (the agreement was sign 7 months ago).

Read the news on the agreement here:



Yesterday, there was a news that Staples did well last quarter & will improve again and again that means something good will come for Danka.

Danka is growing, more customers, clients & partnership are coming. Peace for long. GO DANKY.

DON'T LISTEN TO LIARS. Do not respect to someone who treat you as lazy and stupid to dyor but want to take your money. Life is not all about money.

Stock investment is risky but better to follow fundamentals than purely trading based on chart (TA) especially when you have less trading experience. Please DYOR.

[millionaire] 23/5/2002 00:23

whether ff is stating a valid point or not is not really the issue.
The issue is that anybody with a negative vibe or thought can turn
this share especially, to their own advantage. Looking at the MM's
and their spread movements today, wouldn't suprise me if ff was
working as or with a MM for this effect. The fact that DNK stayed up
in the US yesterday, vindicates the future for this company.

Facts don't lie-only speculation about the future can harm DNK.
Facts show DNK doing well - speculation leads elsewhere.

[forfaiter] 23/5/2002 00:22

Coscos...fair point....

I think they will have to sell another asset and I guess it will be the International division in order to pay down the debt.....based on the last set of accounts I just can't see them generating enough income to clear all their obligations by 2004....

If this was to happen my initial valuation model... of mkt cap to revenue ratio goes out of the window as the revenue base will nearly halve as a result.....so the ratio will double... and bring it line with its peers.....

IMHO

[psychicdoc] 23/5/2002 00:21

oak
what do u think of itl results and the drop today
reg
jag

[oaklandsway] 23/5/2002 00:11

coscos, your post 3728 is meaningful. You keep arguing on TA & I will argue on fundamental issue.

I will debate him on fundamentals issue he had raised. Lets see if he will be honest and can agree that Danka is doing right & ready for fully turnaround.

ff is playing words and news because he claim you are lazy and stupid to dyor.

[lex1000] 22/5/2002 23:01

taken from americanbulls.com

Today's Candlestick Patterns:
White Candlestick

Today a White Candlestick formed. Buyers were in control but the buying pressure was not very strong.

[itstelboy] 22/5/2002 22:41

Having seen the considerable achievements, no miracles, performed by LL thus far, I feel sure that he will be nowhere near finished resurrecting Danka from the grave. This is but a pausing point, - a time to reflect, and see what has been accomplished. Anyone who can do all of this, can surely take the next steps!

[forfaiter] 22/5/2002 22:17

Solis....

Ouch....84.5p....down 30%... but I guess you know that being an accountant.....nice post you have certainly cheered up the troops after a rough week...

A lot of supposition ....

Yes a 10% increase in sales would be nice....but considering they decreased 6% from last quarter alone.....takes a bit of believing at this point in time.....

Also the main revenue decline for DNK is in the service/rental/ division which accounts for 60% of the revenues......so any increase in sales will be negated by any further decline in this area.....

This is the main problem area for the whole industry and not just DNK ....as the digital machines require less servicing/parts etc...unfortuntely DNK relies on this revenue stream more than its peers......43% of revenue for IKN..

Growth is a factor that the whole industry is struggling to achieve.....and revenues have been in decline for years.... with no sign of bottoming..so why should it be different for DNK.....