Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[atsuresh] 22/5/2002 21:41

solis,

welcome aboard sir,

excellent post

ats

[sigora] 22/5/2002 21:27

Jeez i am in good company with you solis and oaks and now that share price is also back, for the past few days having to read all these negative post from across the pond i was begining to question my investment in dnk as well as my insanity, i guess thats what happens to the uninformed and semi illitirate person like me. so keep up the good work you beacons of light if nothing else it keeps people like me from panicking.

[psychicdoc] 22/5/2002 21:23

super post solis
closed $370 and$380 after hrs

[mickharkins1] 22/5/2002 21:19

Good post Solis.

[pistonbroke1] 22/5/2002 21:14

Solis - just highlight your post right click on the mouse - copy then paste to a new word doc. Great work by the way Have a San Mig on me

[easykill] 22/5/2002 21:12

solis

excellent post.

[solis] 22/5/2002 21:09

Sig, yes .....was till I retired. Now a humble one man band trying to get big.... not sure what at

[sigora] 22/5/2002 21:06

Super post solis, are you by any chance an accountant.

[sigora] 22/5/2002 21:03

Finished up 5cents at$3.70 on volume of 316.900.

[solis] 22/5/2002 21:02

Regret that I was away at exhibition/conference all last week and have
only now been able to catch up on research into new company for me
........having bought in at 84.5p !! Hence my annoyance at ff and his attitude.
No apologies for my previous posting, childish maybe but I still think
appropriate. As far as his BB's I don't bother reading them any more.

What worries me about the BB is the level of research that most people
share. I presume that most people have done their analysis, similar to
what is included below.

If anyone is interested the donkey's figures excluding all exceptional/extraordinary figures are below. Wish I could find a way of transferring to the BB the charts which are illuminating.

As an ongoing business they are profitable (pre exceptionals which are mainly sunk costs), even if ff tries to kid us that they are not.

My own evaluation is that they are well managed and have made inroads into their distribution costs. However what is obvious is that they have not done so with their Admin costs:
Three points why spring to mind, but you out there may know more:
1. They are expensing rather than capitalising large parts of their new system, or
2. They are anticipating greater things and do not want to cut to the bone before they happen, or
3. They have not had the time to deal with them yet.

The gross profit %'s are very interesting if they can continue to improve them.

In our industry (security) post 9/11 sales continued on a high as decisions had already been made and were followed through. However, come December sales fell off a cliff and stayed down till March, when they more than recovered. Their industry is similar in many respects and I would anticipate that sales in this quarter will be well above the March Qtr.

A 10% increase in sales would generate another US$10M in profit per qtr, but so would reducing their overheads to previous levels. That is US$20M per qtr and US$80M p.a. !!! Link that to their increasing gross margin on their sales mix and we have a very healthy company................AND VERY UNDERVALUED.

What I have not yet had time to study is the impact of their financing that ff bangs on about (small beer it seems to me) and the non equity shareholdings and impact thereof.

The above analysis is a personal opinion and should not be taken as fact nor as an invitation to invest. DYOR.



2001 2001 2001 2001 2001
Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr
1-01 2-01 3-01 4-01
T/O Retail sales 414.6 101.2 110.5 103.9 98.9
Supp, maint and rental 717.3 188.5 182.1 172.4 174.2
Wholesale 65.6 17.1 14.1 17.7 16.6

TOTAL 1197.5 306.9 306.7 294.0 289.7

GP Retail sales 107.0 32.2 27.5 24.8 22.5
Supp, maint and rental 293.2 79.4 75.1 73.0 65.6
Wholesale 10.9 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.9

TOTAL 411.1 114.3 105.0 100.7 91.0

GP % Retail sales 25.8% 31.8% 24.9% 23.9% 22.8%
Supp, maint and rental 40.9% 42.1% 41.2% 42.3% 37.7%
Wholesale 16.6% 15.8% 17.0% 16.4% 17.5%

TOTAL 34.3% 37.2% 34.2% 34.3% 31.4%

DISTRIB 186.8 47.5 48.5 46.1 44.7
ADMIN 236.0 57.1 55.3 53.7 69.8

DISTRIB % SALES 15.6% 15.5% 15.8% 15.7% 15.4%
ADMIN % SALES 19.7% 18.6% 18.0% 18.3% 24.1%

PBIT -11.7 9.7 1.2 0.9 -23.5

INT PAY -62.3 -17.3 -16.7 -13.5 -14.8
INT INC 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6

PBT -71.9 -7.2 -15.0 -12.0 -37.7


2002 2002 2002 2002 2002
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Year
1-02 2-02 3-02 4-02
T/O Retail sales 93.7 91.7 99.3 91.1 375.7
Supp, maint and rental 174.2 161.1 163.8 155.0 654.0
Wholesale 14.8 11.8 14.1 14.4 55.1

TOTAL 282.6 264.6 277.2 260.5 1084.8

GP Retail sales 22.0 21.5 24.9 32.3 100.7
Supp, maint and rental 73.7 66.1 70.0 63.0 272.7
Wholesale 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.6 10.2

TOTAL 98.4 89.9 97.5 97.9 383.6

GP % Retail sales 23.5% 23.4% 25.1% 35.5% 26.8%
Supp, maint and rental 42.3% 41.0% 42.7% 40.6% 41.7%
Wholesale 18.2% 19.5% 18.4% 18.1% 18.5%

TOTAL 34.8% 34.0% 35.2% 37.6% 35.4%

DISTRIB 35.5 33.2 34.7 34.0 137.4
ADMIN 56.5 53.5 55.6 58.6 224.2

DISTRIB % SALES 12.6% 12.5% 12.5% 13.1% 12.7%
ADMIN % SALES 20.0% 20.2% 20.1% 22.5% 20.7%

PBIT 6.4 3.2 7.2 5.3 22.0

INT PAY -11.9 -6.9 -6.0 -4.9 -29.7
INT INC 0.4 1.0 1.5 3.2 6.1

PBT -5.1 -2.7 2.7 3.6 -1.6

[pistonbroke1] 22/5/2002 21:02

Excellent, last trade of the day hits new high for the day and closes at $3.70

[blueyonder] 22/5/2002 20:07

Nice one oaklands (the picture I mean) I'm up 100% even at current price
so thanks. Also on Dicom 30% and edg 100% (ta Gerard J)

[oaklandsway] 22/5/2002 19:11

Is this another scaremongerer?

[jimmy28] 22/5/2002 17:35

SP good to have you back

[serious punter] 22/5/2002 17:29

Webley

Trades codes don't matter. Look at the price & times

Jimmy28

Unfortunately, I had to bin my cruise to the Scillies - Galeforce winds etc - Nice to be back at the box :0)

Price moving up across the pond.

[m2dig] 22/5/2002 17:21

EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[webley] 22/5/2002 17:07

SP
I don't think it was a roll over - different mms - look at the code

[jimmy28] 22/5/2002 17:07

SP where have you been

welcome back

jim

[serious punter] 22/5/2002 17:00

blockbuy

It was a 50k roll-over :0)

[blockbuy] 22/5/2002 16:55

2 late buys of 50k

night all.

[paulm1] 22/5/2002 16:55

by the way webly thanks for the live nasdaq link

[paulm1] 22/5/2002 16:53

Dont normaly lower myself to talk to people like ff as we had one on another bb called jimpted,but just to let him know I have made so far 256% profit with dnk.ok it has dropped from a week ago but im still happy.

[lex1000] 22/5/2002 16:15

coscos,I am fully aware that shorters will grab hold of anything negative,so don't discount possibility of further volatility.I disagree with short selling on principal which artificially manipulates share price short term.Selling shares that you don't own somehow seems immoral to me and should not be allowed.That's life and can provide excellent buying opportunities.All about buying low selling high as we all know. Looking for management to do investors proud.My two purchases thus far small ones i.e have not jumped in with both feet.I've taken a long term view on this share so will drip feed money in at appropriate levels.As posted previously looking for close at $3.60.