Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[lex1000] 20/5/2002 08:21

Taking it as a positive sign that mms did not immediately mark bid down following that 20K sell.

[chestnuts] 20/5/2002 08:11

This is a good buying oppurtunity with price it is and the conferance on thursday they obviosly going to announce good news and i certinaly wouldn't like to be shorting this at the moment

[lex1000] 20/5/2002 07:52

Good luck everyone.War of words and battle continues between traders/short speculators v long term investors.Danka is a volatile share but should recover imho.

[sigora] 20/5/2002 07:50

Easykill the message on the american airlines was posted on sat night sorry i cannot rememder the message number.

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 00:55

Posted on the Yahoo BB yesterday....

[easykill] 20/5/2002 00:25

forfaiter

"especially if the rumours concerning the sale of Danka International are true"

come again.. can you expand on that please.

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 00:19

Easykill....yes I agree the conference call should be interesting especially if the rumours concerning the sale of Danka International are true...

I still have a core holding in the stock,though recently reduced which I will let run.....no intention to buy back and risk a 800% + gain based on the recent results...

May trade for the bounce if it gets as low as 55p.....

[webley] 19/5/2002 23:31

Have just caught up on all the posts on ADVFN, III and Yahoo. No doubt others have seen that the messages from forfaiter about declining earnings in Q4 apear on the other boards. They match exactly. I cannot help but conclude that it is all the work of the same person - a P G Evans perhaps (Yahoo handle). His messages received the same credit on other boards as on here. Now why does somebody go to all that trouble?

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 23:03

Psychicdoc...LOL...maybe he will cover your losses if you ask him nicely....

[psychicdoc] 19/5/2002 22:41

ff:
it shows clearly either you are a very fickle minded trader or you clearly lie for your monetary rewards, now oaks has a fan following why shouldnt he, he is honest,clever and much more than many others and sorry but dont feel too bad about it because you do not have much of an argument,
happy trading

[zulu001] 19/5/2002 21:52

The US accounts for the fourth and third quarters were as follows ( in US $ '000)

.......................Q4......Q3
Operating earnings...(2870)...9097
Interest expense.....(7507)..(7867)
Interest income.......4411.....199

Earnings from ops....(5966)...1429

Less tax(benefit)...(10567)....869
Discontinued ops.....10630...(2901)
Extraord gain on debt.........1415

Net Earnings (loss)...15231...(926)

Net per ADS............0.17...(0.08)

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 21:48

ff,
honestly I feel a bit funny reading your postings sent after earning if I compare with your "fully informed posting since you invested at sub 10p".

Now, you asked us "...so why the sell off in the US" (posting 3235)

Funny, isn't it? because you used to explain to us about it using technical analysis, retracement, shorters, blah blah blah.... but now you ask a question about it.

Also, in your post no. 3238 you claimed " .. there sure is some nervous tension on this board ... and in the us .... ".

Funny, how many people in this board that show their "nervous tension", I thought your own statement that try to create that kind of nernousness. In which I and majority of posters here try to make it calm (but realistic). More people here consider the final report was still tolerable and can see the real progress or at least believe in the recovery process being done by the new management as the profit margin up, debt down, more sophisticated software, etc.

"nervous tension" in US is common, since Danka was under $0.50 we saw nervous being created by shorters, bashers, frustated ex-employee, or loser. The fact is the short position is still over 1 million shares. How many geneuine people are nerveous in US you think? You used to inform us with the fact that more new institutions bought danka shares in US, data about shorters, blah blah blah.. to convince us to hold or buy.

Revenue for Q4 is under expectation but not end of bussines. As you said many times in this board that the value of the company must be calculated from ratio of market cap/revenue which is very low. Tell us what is the fair value based on this kind of ratio? Then should we nerveous if the company could be a subject of hostile takeover if the value is still that low while the company looks very much healthy financially, organisation, technology, or other kind of asset.

My calculation is very simple really. Lets assume that without write off & special charge, the break even is reach at the revenue of $1.6 billion. Again, it is an assumption. Meaning, next fiscal year Danka just need to increase revenue of average $21.6 million per quarter to make net profit of $32 million or $0.5 per share. Not easy to achieve it but does not mean impossible. ff, you told us here that the profit margin in danka still can be improved if we study the sector, didn't you? Meaning, danka may need less than $1.68 billion revenue to make net profit of $0.5 per share next fiscal year.

[zulu001] 19/5/2002 21:27

So the Q4 EBITDA IMPROVEMENT (year on year) increased to $30.4m. That was not the Q4 EBITDA.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 21:23

For the UK accounts...yes....

[zulu001] 19/5/2002 21:01

When LL refers to EBITDA improvement (repeated above in post 3236), I assume he is talking about the improvement between the three months ended 31 March 2002 compared with the three months ended 31 March 2001. Am I correct in this assumption?

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 20:49

Just jesting.....there sure is some nervous tension on this board....and in the US.........

[easykill] 19/5/2002 20:45

forfaiter

ever heard "buy on rumour, sell on the news" .... irrespective of whether the news is as expected or worse than expected. Seen it many a time.

When results come as expected, like danka, then there is profit taking, especially after a run up. I am sure you have seen that before with other stocks.

[easykill] 19/5/2002 20:42

CEO words, from both sets of accounts :

UK :

"Our progress despite negative industry trends and the worldwide economic downturn is reflected in our continued EBITDA improvement, which increased to £18.9 million for our fourth quarter."

US :

"Our progress despite negative industry trends and the worldwide economic downturn is reflected in our continued EBITDA improvement, which increased to $30.4 million for our fourth quarter. The recent quarter marked the fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA growth."

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 20:37

Very true...so why the sell off in the US..?

[easykill] 19/5/2002 20:35

forfaiter

Danka is mainly a US business and the stock there has by far the greater influence on the stock here. So US accounts have more weight that the UK equivalent.

[zulu001] 19/5/2002 20:16

US and UK accounting conventions differ, most notably because of differing treatments over pension costs and the amortization of goodwill in the US.

So one cannot divide a profit in the US accounts to get the profit in the UK accounts - they are produced in accordance with slightly different concepts.

It is the dollar accounts that matter because it is the US that determines the share price.

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 20:12

Q3 EBITDA is $29.3M = £20.056 million with same exchange rate of 1.46090

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 20:04

We will see after I rang the company, although will be expensive for me as I am abroad. The call could take long time becase I might wait until can speak to the right person. Would nof you help me on this.

I am 100% sure that Lang Lowrey said the EBITDA grew up in every quarter. As I said, this is serious matter since EBITDA is used as part of fundamental valuation of a company.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 19:59

You are wrong.....read the UK accounts...the EBITDA is less than the figure posted for Q3......It was 19.1m in Q3....