Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[oaklandsway] 20/5/2002 19:09

Just spent $30K and made $4K in less than 4 hours, should I take advantage?

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 19:07

How much did you pay for shares ?...enough said..

[psychicdoc] 20/5/2002 19:04

ff
'who may know just a little more than you'
please come on dont make us laugh, i didnt know you were a comedian as well

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 19:00

As with all projections made on supposition......time will tell...

Never hurts to re-evaluate your position in a stock especially when results are released....

If you want to be pedantic the company did not generate pre tax profit for the last Fiscal year...which means it is not breaking even on a consistent basis...

One quarter does not make a recovery......

You called the markets reaction to the results incorrectly....have the good grace to accept that fact.......and respect other peoples views.....who may just know a little bit more than you....

[oaklandsway] 20/5/2002 18:38

Do not use p/e before you see full recovery. It's still starting. We have not heard earning target from the company or analysts for current fiscal year. And can't use the Q4 profit to set the fair value.

Looks like someone forgot his proposed criteria to value the company based on the ratio of market cap/revenue and the fact that Danka is in the lower end list in the sector.

I am sure many big institutions will be happy to pay under 60p per share (or £150 million and take the $50 million available cash) if danka is open for takeover bid, if Danka think they can not develop the business or no more growth from q4. THAT'S SILLY.

Big achievement from Lang to gain the shareholders's equity fund during 2001/2002. And we believe that he will make more gain on it for current fiscal year. We value the company based on this, debt reduction, free cash flow, no cash burning, new technology, big profit margin and prediction of current economic growth especially in the office equipment sector.

[ambabe] 20/5/2002 18:31

ff,

Think you need to be reminded how this donkey can fly!



(courtesy of Jimmy28 - hope you don't mind me borrowing it)!

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 18:17

Psychicdoc...look at the share price ....my analysis seems pretty close to the mark..?

[psychicdoc] 20/5/2002 18:14

p/e of its peer group is over 22, ff is misleading in his analysis again

[coscos] 20/5/2002 18:12

FF,
Would a positive forward looking statement on Thursday be evidence enough of growth?

[telbap] 20/5/2002 18:11

$3.23, looks to be recovering....BUT it is lunchtime over there. I will stab a guess at $3.30. but hope for more.

[oaklandsway] 20/5/2002 18:09

Another post about SSFT, similar analysis from some of us here for Danka (i.e. debt, ebitda).

I did my homework too. Valuation here should be about 5x ebitda less net debt.
- EBITDA (cash flow) for DANKY is 1.70/share,or about 100mm. Used to be 200mm-300mm!! So there's hope for a double in ebitda.
- Debt is about 300mm, cash about 50mm, so net debt is 250mm, or $4+/share (60mm shs).
- 5x 1.60 minus 4 is $4.
- If ebitda rises to only past levels, say 2.50 - 3.00/sh, valuation would be 8 - 11.
- And, don't forget, debt is being paid down!
- Moroever, there was a relentless, ongoing wave of insider buying up to $2.96. (I betcha we'll see more had bought at current levels.)
- A similar stock that turned around and fluctuated wildly is SGI. It too, came back from the dead, and is now rising, faced with my incredulity...

Stay the course, stay calm. You make money off your calm knowledge and off others' ignorant hysteria.

H.

[ambabe] 20/5/2002 18:09

Ironic really - seems to me ff will be helping us out when he closes his short!

Cheers ff !!

Close $3.31IMO

[forfaiter] 20/5/2002 18:09

I see Bullrally is still basing his PE ratio on the exceptional gain from the DSI sale and the early retiremnt of debt...

DNK made circa 3p of EPS last fiscal year which puts the stock on a PE ratio of just under 20...which is ambitious for a non growth stock...

The PE sector average is 12 which puts DNK at 36p....so I am not accused of being unfair I will take the Q4 eps OF 1.1P and multiply it by 4 ...giving a figure of 4.4p....

Which on a PE ratio of 12 would value the company at 53p a share....

Which confirms my claims made yesterday...that until there is evidence of growth.... the stock is fairly if not over valued....(over valued on aprice of 75-85p that is)

Have a nice day....

[millionaire] 20/5/2002 18:02

ff and other shorters will probably close today.
The psychological level of $3 was hit and that
probably triggered closing of shorts.
As the Conference Call approaches, doubts about
it and its impact on short covering will force
them out of the market.

[millionaire] 20/5/2002 17:53

I reckon $3.50, but I never thought it would fall
as far as fast, so what do I know?

[oaklandsway] 20/5/2002 17:52

I was not able to post the graph from FT so took long time to revise it. Please see again post no. 3438. cheers.

[ambabe] 20/5/2002 17:51

Forfaiter

You haven't answered my question!

When are you going to cover your short?? you must know!!

[coscos] 20/5/2002 17:50

Any guesses on tohights closing price in US? I'll kick it off by saying $3.40

[lex1000] 20/5/2002 17:49

copy and paste from yahoo echoes my views and bullish.Danky ticking up slowly in the US.My only fear is that UK investors will be unable to pick up stock as cheaply.


by: bullrallystocks (42/M/™ ®)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 05/20/02 12:40 pm
Msg: 26910 of 26910

Just picked up another 1000 at $3.10

Had to Wire Transfer Funds.

I Don't know how long they can Manipulate this down.

P/E @ 2.5 will now show up on Everyones Stock Screener Search.

Institutions and Insiders are Buying.

Second chance for those that missed the first Run. There will be plenty more in the near future. We have become VERY Popular in the past week. SHORTS are having a Field day. They will have to cover at some point, that will fuel the next Rally. Most likely the Smart Shorters are covering into this Panic/Manipulation

[millionaire] 20/5/2002 17:48

Yes currently 3.11.
Would much prefer 5.11 over there but we can all wish!
Fundamentally nothing wrong with this Company.
They met the criteria in every way in their results
and this is the reward. Hate to think if they had not met
analysts forecasts. Danka are doing themselves no favours
by not putting out a statement to steady the share price.
I know the conference call is on thursday, but in my opinion
the sooner the better.

[ambabe] 20/5/2002 17:46

By the way Lex on moneycentral you only get 50 x quotes per day unless you upgrade

What was Oaks post supposed to be ??

[lex1000] 20/5/2002 17:44

millionaire, I have Danky trading above $3 currently at $3.12.

[millionaire] 20/5/2002 17:42

I suggest you post this on the DANKY Yahoo BB.
They aren't listening over the pond.

[lex1000] 20/5/2002 17:34

As previously posted Danka is a stock which can either make or lose you a fortune.A friend of a friend did exactly made a fortune,lost it and made it back again.As others have said Danka can be moved either by buys/sells or put another way longs /shorts.

Danka has risen strongly from sub 20p upwards and many sitting on huge profits.I hear what everyone (both sides) has said about recent results which whilst not bad were not as good as expected.My view is that with clean accounts it is cheap when compared to its peers and therefore merits a re-rating. The management from what i can see are doing everything right.From past experience it is well within the means of this company to return to 200p long term.Short term i'm more interested in share price returning to 70's.

Giving its trading history and meteoric rise it was ripe for shorting.My belief now is that $3 is/was the shorters target.I may be mistaken but would be very surprised should danka continue to fall.There is nothing the average investor can do if a stock is targetted by shorters,particularly when there are spectactular profits to be taken and as downtrend triggers off stop loss/trailing stop loss.All investors are responsible for their own investment decisions and strategies.

I would like to suggest that at $3 we have reached bottom.Are there any shorters on this thread who agree with me.Time to go long?

[oaklandsway] 20/5/2002 17:32

Good if you make money from trading, I did it when DNK was up from 17p-ish to 50p-ish then triple my hoding. But, Danka is not only for active traders. Certaintly I have to be consistant when I said Danka is undervalue based on ratio of market cap/revenue and debt is reducing.

Danka is not only for active traders, but also for long-term play. It's the nature of US traders/shorters that made the roller coaster. Check this link and set time frame for six months, you can see how US traders try to scare people on SSFT before finally institutions took the stock in big style.




My posting is inspired by posting below from Yahoo.

It seems many companies follow the same story as they fight their way back from the dead. Danky is doing everything right and will probably move quickly back up as volatility will increase for a while. I read this board every day, and have bemusedly watched the newbies of the last week. I own a stock in a different industry with the same story (SSFT). It inched up to 5- bounced down to three (twice- the last in Feb), happily now its trading 7-8. Danka, having the same long tem focus, will have its resilience come out- the key- patience.