Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 11:42

Talk it down?....looks like it fell on its own accord...wish I had that sort of influence...

Just saying I didn't think the results were particuarly good considering the share price and the stock looks fairly if not slightly over valued on the figures available....

[smoketrader] 19/5/2002 11:28

If anyone's trying to talk the stock down they'll have to go over to the states to do it.

EasyKill - I made the chart myself.

[chestnuts] 19/5/2002 10:51

Forfaiter well do you hold or are you just trying to get the price down to buy cheaper

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 10:10

Lol...do I have to ?

[psychicdoc] 19/5/2002 07:07

forfaiter
i dont think you are to great at maths,you have not replied to question asked by chestnuts

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 00:53

Looking at the results since the company restructured shows that the Q4 results have caused the recovery momentum to be lost...

Q1....REV...282M...PROFIT..6.1M....EBITDA...18.4M

Q2..........264M............2.7M.............15.6M

Q3..........277M............7.2M.............19.9M

Q4..........260M....LOSS...(1.9M).............18.9M

Investors may want to see the revenue base to start growing again before they believe the recovery is for real...more importantly the EBITDA actually decreased in Q4 .....What happens if the revenue base declines another 15m-20m next quarter ?

[psychicdoc] 19/5/2002 00:07

post it to stacey l bradford please

[chestnuts] 18/5/2002 17:32

What does anyone make of this

[easykill] 18/5/2002 17:30

forfaiter

LOL.. I will clarify this on monday with danka themselves. thanks for your input anyway.

[forfaiter] 18/5/2002 17:24

I was never great at maths...but 18.9m is not more than 19.1m.....regardless of who, or how many times it is said........don't believe everything you read...

[easykill] 18/5/2002 17:23

believe me, if the stock falls to 55p, I have £60,000 ready to find itself a home in DANKA shares.

[easykill] 18/5/2002 17:21

forfaiter

from the UK accounts this was stated :

"Our progress despite negative industry trends and the worldwide economic downturn is reflected in our continued EBITDA (earnings before interest expense, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) improvement, which increased to £18.9 million for our fourth quarter."

this is almost similar (if not exactly the same) as what was stated in the US accounts (in there it was more specific). The US accounts had this last line added "The recent quarter marked the fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA growth."


But US accounts and UK accounts CAN NOT really be dis-similar in factual content.

[forfaiter] 18/5/2002 17:18

Yes there is support at 65p and the share has a history of trading between 63-68p which is fair value imho....until further positive news.

However that doesn't rule out the yanks who have the bit between their teeth pushing the share down to 53/55p before they start covering.......

[chestnuts] 18/5/2002 17:15

Forfaiter
Are you holding shares at the moment or are you one of these who sold earlier and hoping to buy cheaper which is nothing wrong with that but i hate people trying to talk down the price to buy back the cheaper then suddenly changing saying how undervalued they are i am not saying this of you but at least we know where we stand with you.

[chestnuts] 18/5/2002 17:15

Forfaiter
Are you holding shares at the moment

[lex1000] 18/5/2002 17:11

Is it possible to establish some sort of 'expert' consensus between fair value and where share might bottom? At the moment seem to have suggestions of 65p down to 53p worse case scenario with posters reading from different hyme sheets vis-vis accounts.I would like to think Danka will level out at around 65p.

[easykill] 18/5/2002 17:07

forfaiter


EBIDTA was slightly lower thatn Q3 but growth in EBIDTA was higher as a percentage of revenue (compared to Q3)

[forfaiter] 18/5/2002 16:56

The statement only applies to the US accounts...on the UK accounts the ebitda clearly declined in Q4 over Q3....

The operating profits and cash flow have benefitted from tax gains...the pre tax profit shows a different picture.

The company is just about keeping the cost cutting and margin improvements in line with the revenue decline...

Fairly valued until growth returns...imho..

[easykill] 18/5/2002 16:50

smoke trader

thanks for that. can i ask where that chart is from ? which site ? tia

[smoketrader] 18/5/2002 16:35

Any chartists out there use Fibonacci? I wish I'd been paying more attention to these support/resistance levels:



Although it doesn't show it on this chart I still think there's support at 65p. Next week will decide that for sure.

[sigora] 18/5/2002 16:07

what we need is institutions to inititate coverage on this stock prefrably with a stong buy. ikon which is in the same sector had a similiar dip in price after thier results but after brocker coverage the price recoverd, if i could remember correctly it spured dnk along the way.one of the reasons we went from 4bucks to 5 was around the time of ikons results so be patient all price will recover. JMO

[easykill] 18/5/2002 13:53

forfaiter

Q4 "LOSS" is deceptive. It occurred due to one off exceptionals. Agree ?

also Q3 EBIDTA was £19.1 million and NOT £19.9million

further, and more importantly, compare the EBIDTA as a percentage of turnover for the pass 4 quarters... its been increasing. for the 4th quarter it was 7.27%, compared to 6.9% in the 3rd quarter.

and your last paragraph doesnt correlate with what the CEO states :

"Overall, we achieved our key objectives in both the fourth quarter and the full year, and I'm proud of the way our associates have performed," commented Lang Lowrey, Danka's chairman and chief executive officer. "Our progress despite negative industry trends and the worldwide economic downturn is reflected in our continued EBITDA (earnings before interest expense, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) improvement, which increased to $30.4 million for our fourth quarter. The recent quarter marked the fourth consecutive quarter of EBITDA growth."

[pistonbroke1] 18/5/2002 11:18

More theoropy for the twitchy

Copied from iii


A Better P/E Ratio
By Stacey L. Bradford
May 17, 2002

THERE ARE MANY ways to look for value in a stock. The most popular is probably the Price-to-earnings ratio. But this measure can be a bit misleading. As the accounting scandals of the past few months have shown, a company's earnings figures aren't always reliable, even with a stamp of approval from a Big Five accounting firm.

Savvy investors looking for a more complete picture of a company's health often embrace another kind of price-to-earnings measure called the Enterprise value/Ebitda ratio. Quite a mouthful - so let's break it down. A company's Enterprise value is its market cap plus its long-term debt, minus its cash stash. Think of it as the theoretical takeover price, since an acquirer would have to shoulder the burden of the company's debt and would pocket its cash in the event of a buyout.

Ebitda - which stands for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization - is basically a company's operating cash flow. Some believe Ebitda provides a better sense of the cash a business is generating than net earnings or raw revenues can. Here's how it works. Since taxes and interest expenses don't tell you anything about a company's core business, they're tossed aside. And depreciation and amortization are also ignored, because they're noncash accounting adjustments.

When you stick these two variables together, you get the EV/Ebitda ratio. A low ratio indicates that a company might be undervalued. It also might indicate that a company is a ripe takeover target. Both scenarios are good for investors.

In our hunt for cheap but worthy companies, we tossed out any stocks with a market capitalization under $300 million and eliminated companies with negative operating cash flows. Next, we required that our survivors boast EV/Ebitda ratios below those of both the broader market and their own industry group. Finally, we wanted companies with improving operating margins, so their most recent operating margins had to exceed their five-year historical average.

After all of this, we ended up with 35 companies, in sectors like health care, basic materials and consumer goods. A few words of caution: Since this is a value screen, it turns up cheap stocks - and many are cheap for a reason. For example, AOL Time Warner's (AOL) stock price has fallen to a three-year low thanks to a slump in its America Online unit and a poor advertising environment. And both Qwest Communications (Q) and Dynegy (DYN) are being investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

So which stocks are worth considering? Whirlpool (WHR) tops our list. Despite climbing 23% over the past 12 months, it trades for an EV/Ebitda ratio of just 5.27. That's about half of the Standard & Poor's 500's ratio of 10.21. The Benton Harbor, Mich.-based appliance maker is poised to benefit from continued strong demand. Total domestic appliance shipments increased 7% in April, marking the ninth month of sequential growth. And analysts don't see demand waning any time soon. Home Depot (HD) also recently announced plans to increase its lineup of appliances, which could boost Whirlpool's sales in coming quarters.

----------------------------------------------------------
Now lets Calculate DANKA's EV/Ebitda ratio:

A company's Enterprise value is its market cap plus its long-term debt, minus its cash stash.

Enterprise value (EV) is : (236 + 304) - 59.5 = 480.5

DANKA'sEV/Ebitda ratio : 480.5 / 107 = 4.49

Market cap: 236 million
Long term debt: 304 million
Stash of cash: 59.5 million
EBITDA: 107 million

A low ratio indicates that a company might be undervalued.
Whirlpool (WHR) tops our list.it trades for an EV/Ebitda ratio of just 5.27.
DANKA'sEV/Ebitda ratio : 480.5 / 107 = 4.49

DANKA THE Most Undervalued Stock around!!!

[easykill] 18/5/2002 09:58

From: Lang Lowrey on 05/16/2002 10:37 AM
To: danka americas@danka
cc:
Subject: Lang's Progress Report

May 16, 2002
To: All Danka Associates
Re: Fiscal 2002 Results


This is a brief note to let you know that the company announced its
financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year today.

Overall, we are very pleased with our performance. Fiscal 2002 was a
turning point for Danka in many ways, and in the fourth quarter we built on
positive trends in keys areas such as EBITDA performance, debt reduction,
and gross margin improvement. I want to reiterate my heartfelt thanks for
your extra efforts in 2002; I know that many of you made significant
sacrifices to help us succeed.


Of course, all of this is old news to us. We're halfway through the first
quarter of fiscal 2003, and performance expectations are higher than they
were a year ago. So we must continue to focus on executing our strategies.
As I said to you just a couple of weeks ago, our motto for the New Year is
"progress." Let's renew our efforts to build a world-class company!


Look for another progress report in a couple of weeks or so, when I'll
share developments from the senior management planning meeting that we're
holding later this week.


Best regards,


Lang

[easykill] 18/5/2002 09:51

Moving averages for Danka :



Very Short Term Trend : 5-13 days
Short Term Trend : 14-25 days
Minor Intermediate Trend : 26-49 days
Intermediate Trend : 50-100 days
Long Term Trend : 100-200 days