Danakali Share Discussion Threads

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 19:55

Q4 EBITDA : I read the report in US is $30.4 million
Today's exchange rate from FT is 1.46090

So, in £ the Q4 EBITDA should be around £20.809 million

How, ff can claim the EBITDA is £18.9 million. If he got it from UK account then we should ring Danka Office in London and ask them to revise it.

This is serious fault (typos, etc.) because some people use the "faulty" information to try to knock "other people's believe" that EBITDA for Q4 is better than Q3.

Please make a phone call to Danka Office in London or in USA. This is serious because people like ff consider decrease in Q4 EBITDA as a serious matter or at least to raise this issue as part of his "play from news" to make money. Hope ff will believe that EBITDA of £18.9M was wrong.

Unfortunately he claimed "oak is wrong on EBITDA that grew up in fourth consecutive quarters". Thanks for any help to verify it.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 19:49

I still have a core holding... does that answer your question ?

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 19:17

Well ff,
what is your final view now from today to next earning?

You still ask me to revise the target to £2 or price is going down and wont rebound. You should keep saying that price is far from fair value, the further it goes down the market cap will be much lower, although the Q4 revenue is slightly down but the market cap is still too low comparing to the peers in the sector. Because you argued about market cap/ revenue ratio before (on 12 May).

Look again your postings below:

Posted on 12 May'02 - 15:20 - 2697 of 3218

This stock is always very volatile around results time.....even more so this time around as a good set of results will confirm that the recovery is on track...

This would then raise the issue of a fair valuation...DNK is currently sitting at 143 out of 150 in the support services sector with a mkt cap/revenue ratio of just 0.16.....

The recent high calibre managerial appointments suggest that the company won't be in that position for long...



Now ff, THE MARKET CAP/REVENUE RATIO must be under 0.16... or at least lower than when you posted on the 12 May. Agree??

So, it's FURTHER FAR FROM FAIR VALUE, isn't it?

ff, do you still suggest buy because far from fair value.
Was the target of £2 is a fair value as you expected or what?

Yes, I know the answer is you were playing words/news/data to make money no matter people will loss or die. Money is the most important for your life.

Well, I am not that kind of person unfortunately. I want prosperity for as many people as possible but I can't smile when other people suffer because of my behaviour.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 19:13

Chestnuts...

LOL.....I thought you were filtering me out.....if you are having problems...ask Oaks... he does everything else for you.....

Quite a fan club there Oaks......lambs to slaughter ?...

[lex1000] 19/5/2002 19:11

I'm looking to add to my holdings and must decide whether to drip feed money into danka shares or wait for share price to stabilise which possibly risks missing out on todays lows if there is a sharp bounce.

In the US Danky is imo blantantly being shorted which I suspect might include some stale bulls who have sold and wish to buy back more cheaply.Current short term volatility must imo to come to an end with the next week (have high hopes with Thursday conference) or two at most.

Below is a copy and paste from www.americanbulls.com of which I have no previous knowledge about their system or recommendations of:-Wait,Hold,Buy,or Sell.No doubts in my mind that Danka will recover all short term losses and cannot personally see cautionary indication of panic and capitulation coming to fruition.

I would welcome views on their analysis.

Daily Commentary
WAIT

Our system recommends WAIT as of today. Previous SELL recommendation was made on 5/2/2002 (15) days ago, when the stock price was 4.429. Since then the stock fell -13.98% .

Today the stock closed lower, close to its low (sign of weakness) with a lower high and a higher low (sign of decrease in volatility). The volume is high. The security price is trending down.

Candlestick Analysis


Today's Candlestick Patterns:
Long Black Candlestick


Today a Long Black Candlestick formed. Sellers were aggressive and selling pressure was strong. Be careful, this may indicate panic or capitulation!

[chestnuts] 19/5/2002 18:57

Oaks i have followed your posts for long time now but never had the time to correspond until recently and i think your annalys is the best going i will definatly be buying some more tomorrow what ever happens i also expect alot of other people will be especially with the conferance happening on thursday wich will be probably be an interim statement on about how well this q is doing.

Ff i might not be as old as you i am nearly 5 Birthday in July and we can continue on this level but as my mummy keeps saying in this life don't tell lies, don't knock people down , and help them when needed , and don't do to others as what you wouldn't do to your self, and my memory is not going as Oaks as proved yours is.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 18:55

Oaks...as I said when did I ask you start the thread ?...I didn't ..end of story....again as with the EBITDA argument you are wrong....


Unfortunately the results did not confirm the recovery was on track.....as well as I hoped ...but as you can see I have backed up my point of view with reasoned analysis....based on the figures presented in the report...

My investing strategy is irrelevant......it will change nothing....if posters don't agree with my analysis..then come forward with a reasoned and educated reponse and I will take it onboard.......

Claims questioning my honesty and motives are childish......as is filtering out my posts just becaue you do not like the content.....

I do not like your style of starting threads with ''price targets'' that suck in the less experienced....but heh thats life....each to their own......

After all we are all here to make money........

[easykill] 19/5/2002 18:32

piston

thanks for that. still cant find the posts that contains rumours of the 900 machine order and the sale of one of the danka businesses

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 18:29

ff, let me try to remind you again.

1. My post on the 26 Apr'02 - 07:50 - 2187 of 3218

Good morning for all in UK, special regards for 357, ns, sp, ff, etc. I am still enjoying rain forest. £1 for dnk is at the corner ....

2. Your post (to response my posting above)
on the 26 Apr'02 - 08:29 - 2192 of 3218

Hi Oak............time to revise that target to £2....

3. Then I created new thread on 27 April. You did not ask me to create the thread but the thread is in response to your post. I believe myself it will go up but would prefer in US$, because the exchange rate from $ to £ had change, I was not sure to target in £. I do not want to set the target too high & jump to £2 from £1 as you suggested above but when I saw Danky got through $5 then I believe it can still double to $10.

Well hope you can remember now.


4. Below also your post on the 12 May'02 - 15:20 - 2697 of 3218

This stock is always very volatile around results time.....even more so this time around as a good set of results will confirm that the recovery is on track...

This would then raise the issue of a fair valuation...DNK is currently sitting at 143 out of 150 in the support services sector with a mkt cap/revenue ratio of just 0.16.....

The recent high calibre managerial appointments suggest that the company won't be in that position for long...


Remember the new manager (ex- Xerox) was appointed after the fiscal year ended so whatever happened with the result your statement above should still valid because the new CEO is to pursue future growth.

Anyway, I like everyone to make money but I do not like your way to play the news. Please again, do not ask me or use un-polite words like "grow up" or "childish" because that could reflect your own personality.

[kitkat] 19/5/2002 18:22

My thoughts are that there has been a shorting spree in the US and the shares will recover shortly. There are more positives than negatives for the shares to recover, and we all know nothing goes up in a straight line.
I'm happy to hold - in a few months these prices will seem dirt cheap - will top up if I can release some funds elsewhere this week.
Looking forward to the danka live discussion this week
:-)

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 18:16

Chesnuts....

Are you old enough to be trading the markets...?

LOL...filter me out....why not join in the debate with some constructive analysis....for a change..

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 17:58

LOL....complete rubbish...when did I ask you to start a thread ?

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 17:57

This is not about grow up. But I have to speak here because many people on this board do not understand about the fundamental so I have to tell them.

As you confess on your post 3215 that you are "playing" with the news, but I don't want honestly someone take a stop loss after "eating your words" above.

Who said I was not dissapointed. Read again my post 3084 below and read response from lex1000

ff,
I can understand that you argue about no revenue growth for Q4.
I was also dissapointed because I expected it will be better or the same than Q3, but I can understand the situation because we saw that IKN had the similar lower revenue recently.

So, I think we have to blame the lack of IT (including for office equiptment) spending around the globe. The result does not reflect that Danka had lost its power of competitiveness. I can still believe that the revenue will grow because Danka is adopting new strategy & technology for its operation & marketing.

The result is not bad although not as strong as we expected. The underlying of the company sounds better & better toward right direction to profitable & further debt reduction. Remember that the cash flow is solid and as I said in my post earlier that the shareholders' equity fund is increasing. At current price Danka is still undervalue because the restructured company has much better value than many competitors. Certainly, the city will value Danka as a company with profit and growing EBITDA. It is only the matter of time to see Danky to get "buy rating" like IKN.

DYOR, IMO, etc.

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 17:49

Hi chesnuts
You should still remember here that ff asked me to set the target to £2 then I made a new "thread $10 is one the way". I still believe that Danka will eventually hit $10 and we will move our discussion under that thread.

Please do trade based on technical analysis (charts) which sometimes might not need fundamental analysis. And please make a verdict about the fundamentals based on all criteria.

[forfaiter] 19/5/2002 17:42

Oaks...

I suggest you look at the Q3 and Q4 EBITDA figures again....Q4 is lower...FACT..

Then analyse the PRE TAX PROFIT figures after taking out the exceptional gains for the fiscal year......which shows the business still has a lot to do....and is barely breaking even....Q4 is usually a strong quarter the company has the seasonally quiet Q2 to get through yet....

Finally work out the EPS for the year again after adjusting for the exceptional gain from the DSI sale.....gives a figure of 2.4p which means the stock is rated on a PE ratio of 26....

Which brings me back to my original argument that is the stock is fairly or even over valued for the moment...

As for revenues DNK won some large contracts last year but the revnue base is still declining mainly because of the rental/service side of the business which will continue to suffer due to the increased reliabilty of the digital machines......

On the question of honesty...you tell me you were not disappointed by these last results ?....

Anyway the figures don't lie....and how I decide to play the news is my business...grow up boys....

Have a nice day....

[pistonbroke1] 19/5/2002 17:32

Easykill - the link is for recent yahoo message you will have to wade through the previous posts for the last day as it is there somewhere. alot of their posts are just one poster slagging of another. Hope this helps

[chestnuts] 19/5/2002 17:19

Do You think every body should filter ff until he comes clean what does everybody think ?

[easykill] 19/5/2002 17:11

can someone provide the actual URL or text of the rumours on the yahoo board.. regarding sale of 900 machines to American Airlines and also the selling of one of their major businesses ? Please.

thanks

[chestnuts] 19/5/2002 17:09

Hi Oaks nice to hear from you good post i was trying to get ff to say that himself i hate it when people knock a company when they have sold then buy back cheaper and then start raving about it why can't he just be honest and say what he is doing instead of just knocking the company all the time i have bought and sold a few times my self but will not knock a company when i believe in them.

[pistonbroke1] 19/5/2002 16:41

Well said Oak it's nice when your voice of reason makes it's far to rare appearance nowadays. Who Knows what the coming week will bring but one things for sure it will be the U.S. that will lead as usual which has been a pain the past couple of weeks. If we hadn,t been dragged down by the manipulation over there I think Dankas price over here would have at worst stayed level.
The future is good but it may just take alittle bit longer than we had hoped to march on to the $10 range - still holding long

[oaklandsway] 19/5/2002 16:28

If you think you can sell and buy back at cheaper price, that's good. But, do not judge the future of the company (share price) based on Q4 revenue only! Value the whole criteria. In the last four quarters EBITDA has been always up, NOT TRUE THAT Q4 EBITDA IS LOWER THAN Q3. Once again, NOT TRUE.

Forget ff, read all his postings. He said "don't sell" if he expected to exit a bit later and now he is telling a negative criteria because he will reload his truck. You can feel that he is not being honest.

If he is willing to discuss every aspect of Danka then you will know that he actually still believes a lot of progress will come. Danka is on the right way to recovery and you will see that the shareholders' equity value will increase again and again. Profit will go up when debt is reducing. Look, the free cash increases. Soon, big contract will come from US corporates. Remember, US GDP is 20% of the whole world and Danka is preparing to increase their revenue from US market in line with US economic recovery and next time you will see the profit will be much bigger when you "multiply the bigger margin (37%) with bigger revenue".

I traded DNK but I do not need to say something negative about Danka when I want to buy cheaper.

[easykill] 19/5/2002 15:20

sigora

can you post the url for these "rumours" please. Very interested.

thanks

[sigora] 19/5/2002 15:09

Hi everyone just been browsing the yahoo boards, some interesting postings, 900 machines sold to american airlines, rumour of possible sale of danka international maybe the talk of a bid from esselte a couple of weeks back was not pie in the sky after all, these are just a few talking points drawn from the yanks i am not ramping or pumping just check them out see what you think.

[easykill] 19/5/2002 13:30

forfaiter

would appreciate it if you would post the link to that, or the author of that post so that I can search it myself

cheers

[easykill] 19/5/2002 11:56

forfaiter

we are nearly 7 weeks into the 1st quarter. So it will be interesting to hear what the management say next week in the conference call to gauge further as to the progress they are making. by the way I really dont mind whether you hold the stock or not but would be interesting to know whether you intend to buy (if you dont hold) and at what price.

thanks smoke trader, what charting software do you use ?