Daejan Share Discussion Threads

[retsius] 08/9/2017 10:04

TTTE
I suggest you put the whisky on hold for the moment!
Anyone going to the AGM on Tuesday?

[trytotakeiteasy] 08/9/2017 09:42

Here we go again.. back to a 40% discount from the March NAV of £101.6...

[trytotakeiteasy] 05/9/2017 10:40

Early days but we haven't seen large block sales since Thursday. Maybe the seller is cleared out. If so then we should rally from here. Ex-dividend in October and interim results in November.

[retsius] 01/9/2017 20:30

TTTE
British Bulls:' Daejan buy'(1/9/17)
I suggest you may enjoy a small whisky and soda and enjoy the substantial rise of today, after a torrid six months.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 01/9/2017 19:51

Looks like large seller may have been cleared out. Certainly a good close and bodes well for Monday. Slightly less than three months until the interim results. NAV is always hard to call but hopefully we should see rental income return to growth.

[retsius] 01/9/2017 16:40

Turbulence has abated but we advise seat belts to be worn in case of recurrence.
R.

[retsius] 01/9/2017 11:27

Better today, hope it keeps the gain.

[sirhedgealot] 01/9/2017 08:22

I think I know who it is. ;)

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/8/2017 16:40

someone still dumping shares. 4,100 sold versus about 3,000 bought. We still have to wait for this seller to clear. About £240k sold today and we have seen about £60k sold every day for the last few months. Things will only change when they have sold out. They have probably sold £1m by now.

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/8/2017 22:26

Erogenous Jones - I read somewhere that sentiment drivers two-thirds of share prices. I.e. the change in the P/E ratio or in the case of Daejan the movement around the asset value. Daejan's discount has gone to 0% and been as high as 50%. Today it stands at around 41%. Some holder of the shares has decided to dispose of their stake and so that has dragged it down. Sentiment is probably weak given Brexit etc etc. But some other property stocks have held up: Grainger, Mountview etc.

I personally can't see the discount to NAV moving below 50% or at least staying below 50%. So £51 a share should be a floor in a worst case scenario.

[retsius] 30/8/2017 18:10

Ttte
Many thanks for input. Always appreciate well balanced comments and chat.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/8/2017 17:32

retsius - well rental momentum in the UK was weak last year. They didn't really explain why very well. They are also typically very negative in their outlook. However, the refurbished Birmingham office, the new hotel and the 250 new flats being built over the next few years will provide a boost.

If you compare Daejan to say CLI Holdings and the comparative performance recently has been stark. CLI communicates well with investors.

I suppose the bearish case you would build for Daejan or real estate in general is that we are at the end of a multi-decade boom. Interest rates will go up at some point etc etc. Nevertheless a discount of 40%-50% to the March 2017 valuation of £101.6 seems harsh!!!!!

[retsius] 30/8/2017 17:17

Ttte
It's a pity the Annual Report omits any reference to the share price. This should be alluded to , if nothing else it helps to identify with shareholders in the Company.They should say the price has been declining for six months but this is at odds with the co. Performance.
Great results but the share price has been dire, but for no obvious reason. That is what is so galling.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/8/2017 17:09

retsius - yes someone just keeps on dumping shares...and this is an illiquid stock..now we are at a 41% discount...shows that "value investing" is a tough area...If real estate prices are flat this year Daejan should still be able to increase the NAV by about 2% due to rental profit. We should also see net rental income return to growth this year.

In my view, the share price weakness is driven by the idea that real estate valuation momentum is over and we may see declines in the UK. Sure but Daejan's has over half of its assets in Greater London where the population is forecast to continue to grow. Is it just me or do you also rue the day you came across Daejan!!!!

[retsius] 30/8/2017 16:43

Very weak close, the graph of the past six months looks like a car crash.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 29/8/2017 14:35

At around the 40% discount level.... next stop maybe 50%.....wonder what would have happened if full year results were weak instead of being very good!!!

The only positive I guess is that whoever keeps selling shares should out of shares to sell at some point!!!!

[trytotakeiteasy] 28/8/2017 22:13

apollocreed1 - These things are all relative to the quality of the assets. Daejan is focused on London and New York where valuations have increased ahead of rental yields. So the asset quality in terms of geography is very good. But rental yields relative to valuations are low. You can buy lower quality shopping centres or warehouses with high yields. But what long-term future do they have?

In terms of the profit yield for the stock that is not bad but is partly due to the near 40% discount to assets. The profit yield on the stock is ok in my view given the quality of the assets. Investors are focused on the prospects for the valuations though given Brexit etc.

[apollocreed1] 27/8/2017 15:13

TTE - Is a profit yield of 4.44% as you wrote above a good number relative to the market?

[trytotakeiteasy] 25/8/2017 16:40

Someone obviously looking to exit at any price. A bit depressing but what can you do.

[trytotakeiteasy] 25/8/2017 11:11

Just doing some sums and the underlying profit before tax was £54.8m last year. Talking off the 19% corporate tax rate and that is £44.39m. Current market value is £1bn. So if that is correct then the ongoing profit yield agains the market value is 4.44%.

[apollocreed1] 24/8/2017 21:41

I was looking at Millennium & Copthorne today. It's a hotel owning company. Also trading at a 40% discount to NAV. However, over 50% of their portfolio is non-UK so on the one hand, if GBP continues to fall this will gain from the currency move. It also doesn't have a majority family holding the shares. On the other hand, the high-end hotels it runs are probably more sensitive to a recession than the low-end property that Daejan owns. What do you guys think? I think M&C is equally good value as Daejan if not better.

[retsius] 24/8/2017 17:29

TTTE

Just checked 'financials'.Down 555p in 6 months.

Trades today, hardly an ordinary share traded.
R.