Daejan Share Discussion Threads

[retsius] 24/8/2017 17:19

TTTE
Funny I was thinking of you today!? And had very similar feelings that I wanted to get your thoughts!!

Obviously the price has been depressing for months, a relentless mark down of price for no real reason. Property is not popular at the moment what with Brexit never out of the headlines and all the uncertainty that involves. People are wary that prices have ground to a halt with no real catalyst in sight. All very depressing for a property company.

On the plus side it remains on an unbelievable discount to the true valuation. This is reassuring as we drift into the traditionally weak months of Sept/Oct, so I think we nearing the bottom.
I always like to follow Simon T. In the IC. He had it in his portfolio two years ago but advised taking profits.Unfortunately we lost a very respected financial voice for the stock when he ceased coverage,and also the publicity for the share.Looking back I probably should have exited then because I like him 'to be with me' in the stock market.
The total lack of any information about company news obviously does not help and their policy does absolutely nothing for investors nerves!
The annual accounts makes reassuring reading and I think is very well produced with optimistic overtones. What they need is a small ' buy back' programme to give some catalyst for a rise and believe me it would not take much buying to have a result.
Hope you are well,
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 24/8/2017 16:38

retsius- any thoughts on this weakness... selling every day....not sure how low this can go??? now at a 40% discount to NAV... hard to see it moving to a 50% discount or at least staying at that level for long

[trytotakeiteasy] 16/8/2017 14:16

Feels like a seller is continually at work here. Any buys are met by an equal number of sells. It could be a long-time, therefore, before we see any share price progress. i.e. until this seller has exited from Daejan.

Just shows even if a company produces good results you don't necessarily see a share price follow-up. Looking at the annual report and the Aldgate hotel could finish this year. Temple Street in Birmingham was completed March 2017 and will add to the rent roll this year. However, we are now heading to a 40% discount to NAV although we could see the NAV decline this year.

[trytotakeiteasy] 09/8/2017 13:32

Here we go again. On a positive note the share price shouldn't be able to decline by much more than 12% from here as this would take it to around a 50% discount to NAV. This would entice even the most cautious value investors.

[trytotakeiteasy] 07/8/2017 14:45

retsius - I think given that the shares are illiquid and there is already family control they don't want to edge out outside investors by buying shares back. At least that is what I imagine their argument would be. I think you could negate this argument by stating that they would reissue the shares when the discount is lower. However, as a family controlled company I am not surprised they don't care what external investors think.

[retsius] 07/8/2017 14:22

TTTE
Share your frustration and as an investor realise even a modest purchase and retiral of shares would do wonders for the share price

Write to the Co. Secretary and suggest it.

I did some years back and was told they weren't interested.As an investor that statement just does not make sense....
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 07/8/2017 13:43

At a 38% discount at £63 and looks like we are moving to a 40% discount. This has been driven by tiny share sales. Would be great if Daejan bought back the shares. Final results from the group got almost no publicity.

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/7/2017 23:09

Just had a quick read of the accounts and they appear to read well. The rental thing wasn't really resolved as they said something like some rents were revised down. A fair few positives in there such as the group benefiting from Crossrail, development plans for new homes etc.

Interim results less than four months away!!!!! Probably NAV will fall marginally but that is ok given the big discount.

Patience is a virtue... but Daejan you are pushing me to the extreme!!!!

[retsius] 31/7/2017 20:41

TTTE
Check out annual accounts now to view for previous concerns about rental issues.
R.

[topvest] 31/7/2017 19:22

I don't think share buy-backs are an option here as the Freshwater family owns most of the company anyway. Succession plans are a concern, but I suspect the sons will takeover when they have to. A stock to put to one side and revisit in 10 years in my view. It will almost certainly do reasonably well.

[trytotakeiteasy] 31/7/2017 09:45

topvest - understand that. However, it is still frustrating. I think Daejan doesn't help itself with the minimal disclosure. The majority of assets are in Greater London, for example, but where? West End is different to the City. I also think a share buy back if the discount is more than 30% would be good. There is also little serious clarity on succession. Who will run the show after the second generation "moves on." We have three third generation family members as non-executive directors. However, none of them are pursuing property as their main career. On a positive note this is a business that could run itself largely at least for five years. Investment plans will be laid out for a number of years.

Interesting that Fuller's is able to buy shares back despite being family controlled. No reason really that Daejan can't in my view.

[topvest] 28/7/2017 18:53

Yes that's Daejan for you. Can remember when it was £10 or so. Always on a discount but will do well for you long term. This is a nice hold forever stock with a growing dividend. Nice store of value.

[trytotakeiteasy] 27/7/2017 16:18

two years ago in July 2015 the share price was at £65 and the last reported asset value per share was £81.84 - a 20.5% discount. Two year's later the share price is £64 and the last reported asset value per share was £101.61 - a 37% discount. Slightly frustrating!!!

[trytotakeiteasy] 17/7/2017 17:06

A possible theory about the fall in UK rents and increase in UK property costs is related to renovations. Maybe Daejan stopped renting some buildings in order to renovate them. I guess also the cost of building the new hotel impacted UK property costs as I can't see any other P&L line where the related costs would go.

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/7/2017 09:37

retsius - I did a google search and only two news outlets picked up the results. Digital Look and Stock market wire. Slightly disappointing. Will have to see if Investors Chronicle covers it next week.

Oh well only a year to wait until the next full year results I guess!!!

[retsius] 13/7/2017 20:37

TTTE
Absolutely agree,spot on with analysis.
We are just moving up after a dismal six months of decline, so let's enjoy the rise however short it may be.
Property is not going to drop 35%!(I hope)
British bulls 13/07: buy ( but don't bet the house)
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/7/2017 19:32

apollocreed - a lot of the decline actually happened after the Brexit vote. Granted months after March 2017 have been somewhat weak. I read recently that June was positive. I think probably things will be flat in the UK but we may see a slight decline. The rental income and its contribution to assets should offset this. The group is a net investor into property every year.

Granted we may seen a slight NAV decline when the group next reports. However, gearing is low (especially in the UK) and the company has a strong long-term track record. I was only expected a full year NAV of maybe £98 and we got £101.61.

With regard to the asset estimations the company also seems to sell property above book value. So the valuation estimates must be conservative. They even sold above book in the years of the financial crisis - 2007 to 2010.

Looking forward and their new hotel in East of the City will complete in 2018 along with Crossrail. Daejan own some assets in the West End near the Crossrail stations.

The investment case stacks up in my view and in any event there are always risks ahead!!!

[apollocreed1] 13/7/2017 18:42

The RICS House Price Balance report came out at midnight. It was a big disappointment, where the forecast was for +15 and the actual figure was +7. The June reading had been +17.

Now Daejan's results are for the year ending 31 March 2017 and so are already out-of-date. If the property market is weakening, as many indicators seem to show, then the future may not be so bright for Daejan as everyone seems to think. Their interim report in 6 months time could easily show a decrease in NAV.

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/7/2017 18:11

It was tipped by Fleet Street Publications a while back I think? It might be in Investors Chronicle this week. Agree, though, that it does tend to fly under the radar.

[retsius] 13/7/2017 15:52

Daily Telegraph today business: nothing.
TheTimes today business:zilch
R.

[retsius] 13/7/2017 11:54

TTTE
Trouble is hardly anyone comments on the stock. ST used to have it in his portfolio but sold out two years ago.IC never any comment.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/7/2017 11:43

retsius - the important thing is that the results feel and look good... this helps attract interest and recommendations (Investors Chronicle etc)....Looking at this today and if I didn't own it I would want to buy it....

[retsius] 13/7/2017 11:24

TTTE
If I was a chartist this has bounced off support of £62 and is heading nicely north.
Interesting to see British Bulls comment tonight.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/7/2017 01:16

Digging deeper and there was a bit fall in rental and related income from £97m in the UK in 2016 to £91.8m in fiscal 2017. This was made up by a jump in the US from £41m to £48.9m. UK property expenses also increased. So net rental and related income in the UK fell off. It is not clear what this is related to so we will probably have to wait for the final results.

[trytotakeiteasy] 12/7/2017 23:20

retsius - yes the likes of Carillion is one thing that drew me to Daejan. The bulk of assets are in global cities - London, New York - and the company is family run and controlled with little leverage. While this may be volatile due to the economic cycle it is hard to see it not creating value over the long-term.