Daejan Share Discussion Threads

[retsius] 29/11/2017 17:39

TTTE
Yes see that, very frustrating!
Still the company is in good shape and share price should be stable here or move north.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 29/11/2017 16:49

Unlisted end of day trade for 305 shares. Our seller is still out there. At this rate it seems like it could take at least another six months.

[trytotakeiteasy] 29/11/2017 08:54

Okish results... will take some unpicking... NAV up 1.6% to £103.28. At the current share price of £60 that translates into a 42% discount to NAV.... The increase I think would of been stronger except for an FX headwind... rental performance remains subdued with only a small increase. The group ramped up investment in new properties.

Cashflow was strong and debt declined. Probably we can expect a similar result in the second half to take the NAV to say £105.

Overall, a somewhat steady as she goes result. Daejan isn't going to shoot the lights out. But may generate slow NAV progress. I would like to see strong rental growth but this hasn't yet come through. Hopefully a few projects will complete before the end of this year.

The results do undermine the argument of some on this board that Daejan's NAV would fall in this period due to UK real estate headwinds. Just looking and more share sales today....not sure the interim results will do much for us in share price terms.......

What I personally don't understand is the disconnect between the rising NAV and largely unchanged rental income......can the company continue to be worth more while rental income sees little progress? The lack so rental income progress may reflect long-term rental contracts at fixed rates. We simply don't know.

My overall thoughts - an ok but somewhat mediocre performance. Not sure it will change sentiment towards the company. The 42% discount may tempt some. I would like more detail on the outlook for rental growth. They haven't seen much progress here for a year and a half. But the new hotel should open at the end of this financial year. So for those who like a slow performer the shares continue to look ok. Where will we be in 5 years. Probably at least an NAV of say about £120....putting us on a 50% discount.....the NAV in 5 years 3% NAV growth a year....I think what investors want is rental growth as this generates profit growth to reinvest in the business and to pay higher dividends.....not sure why Daejan has seen so little progress on rental growth recently...

[retsius] 29/11/2017 08:50

TTTE
Results show rental income up a nudge but property valuation growth slows.
Market seemed to give it a pos. response, almost as a relief that it's pretty good.inordinate discount may attract interest. NAV up to £103.
Confident as one can be that the rise this AM will be there at the close.
Interested to hear your more technical analysis.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 28/11/2017 14:39

well we first hit this share price level in February 2015.... so two years and nine months ago.....the last reported NAV at February 2015 was £75 for September 2014....since then the NAV is up about 35%. The discount to NAV has increased from 20% to about 41% today. The only positive from the negative sentiment is that presumably the discount can't really increase much further!!!

Sentiment for the other property companies in London is also pretty weak.... or at least the major ones.

[retsius] 28/11/2017 08:45

TTTE
Urban and Civic and Shaftesbury reported today with both positive results and increases in NAV.The discrepancy between share price and NAV is nothing compared to the value inheritant in Daejan.Also well diversified with the American property portfolio.
Point taken on last comment,you must be an accountant! Don't quite understand the technicals,howeverI believe the average investor will be looking for the NAV with a sharp eye as it is this which has boosted the value of the company. Yes ,the rental figures are important and I will be looking closely at them tomorrow.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 27/11/2017 10:58

Would love it if the P/E was 6X. However, you have to deduct property gains from profit. Profit excluding property gains was £38.7m last year. After a 19% corp tax that is £31.3m. So excluding property trading gains the P/E is 30.8X on the current market value. Or we are getting a 3.25% profit yield on the market value of Daejan.

I am looking at the rental income side here. I think they will grow the rental income so the P/E on the basis of rental income will come down.

[trytotakeiteasy] 27/11/2017 09:18

Results this week I guess... I expect relatively little NAV progress..... maybe to £103...hopefully rental income progress..... I think the interim NAV isn't audited so is more of a guide figure....should highlight the value given the 43% discount

[trytotakeiteasy] 23/11/2017 17:28

another end of day UT trade for a small amount. Our seller is still out there. Makes you wonder if they have been selling for five months how much longer will it be to clear them out? On the plus side when they are cleared out this could rally.

[retsius] 23/11/2017 10:04

up 160p...... but is it all smoke and mirrors?
R.

[retsius] 22/11/2017 14:54

Ttte
I follow the thread of huge leverage in the US but you have to remember the NAV will rise on the gross valuation, which is now very substantial, as part of the overall group.
R.

[retsius] 22/11/2017 14:48

Ttte
Results on29/11
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 21/11/2017 22:50

Yes that should be positive. However, as someone pointed out here a while ago that is only a small part of the shareholders equity. This is because the US portfolio is more highly leveraged than the UK portfolio. UK asset values remain the key driver. Daejan might see some marginal interim NAV growth but I doubt we will see anything significant. Residential portfolio might do ok. I am guessing that Daejan will surprise us on the upside as they usually seem to do better than expected. However, am not sure the share price will react!!!!

[retsius] 21/11/2017 20:29

TTTE
Checking on USA property price trends over the past year look not too bad.D has bulk of exposure in New York and Florida.These seem to be holding up ,with property in Florida showing modest rise.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 20/11/2017 16:08

Here we go again

[retsius] 15/11/2017 17:42

ttte
Yes I saw that,mildly encouraging for D`s results.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 15/11/2017 16:11

Great Portland had ok results today... not all doom and gloom out there... especially in Greater London.. the main focus of Daejan....

[trytotakeiteasy] 14/11/2017 11:18

retsius - I think as a REIT companies like Land Securities have to pay out the bulk of rental income as a dividend. Daejan isn't a REIT so can retain the bulk of profit if it chooses to. However, it also has to pay corporate taxes given that it isn't a REIT. What differentiates Dajean from Land Securities is its exposure to residential property. Weaker sterling won't be a tailwind in the latest financial period as the US dollar saw a rebound in the period. I expect Dajean to be relatively resilient but am not expecting great results in the next two years.

[retsius] 14/11/2017 07:47

Solid set of numbers from Land Securities this morning. No real increase in NAV but healthy none the less. Daejan might get a slight increase from the American portfolio and also benefit from weaker sterling.
R.

[ntv] 13/11/2017 15:07

did a small short on this friday just before the close not through DMA
closed today for nearly for 1.5%. don't really plan to make a habbit of it but i saw the spike near the close
My son learnt to trade on this share. made himself a few quid for uni. Pity he never took it up full time i think he would have been good at it.
good solid share but more to be made trading it
GLA

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/11/2017 11:17

retsius - well my dividend has been invested for a further 9 shares or so.....hope the interim results are ok..... I guess sentiment towards real estate is going to be weak with Brexit etc.... but other companies have offset the headwinds...

[retsius] 10/11/2017 23:22

TTTE


Yes, the 'lobster pot' analogy comes to mind!



R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 10/11/2017 22:12

I think those were delayed end of day trades. Probably the shares still closed at say £61.50 in reality. I am guessing what has happened with Daejan is a large fund that holds it has decided to liquidate. This is taking some time. Around 5 months of selling so far.

[retsius] 10/11/2017 16:37

Spoke too soon!
R.