Daejan Share Discussion Threads

[trytotakeiteasy] 03/7/2017 08:46

Looking a bit better today.....I think we are at such a high discount that buyers come in when it gets close to £60.....Have to say that in reality I am regretting coming across Daejan....in hindsight there were lots of better opportunities elsewhere....

[retsius] 02/7/2017 13:17

TTTE
No did go to last AGM,would have liked to, but too far from home.
Thanks for input.
Quite a few property cos. giving updates this week,so should be quite interesting to hear views and general market sentiment.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 01/7/2017 22:43

retsius - I take it you went to the AGM last year? I was going to go but was a bit too busy. I think there is a case for a buyback if the discount is say above 30% but I doubt they would ever do it.

The trouble with Daejan is the illiquidity. The market value is £1bn. But if someone sold just 0.01% of the shares £100k the share price can fall by a few per cent. So we are more at risk to the changing sentiment.

Yes UK commercial property is under the cosh. However, Daejan's exposure to UK residential has increased as a proportion of UK assets. It is something like 42% of UK assets. I think residential property in the UK has held up well.

However, UK commercial property is the biggest single segment at 43.8% of total assets. So any weakness here would be a drag.

One thing about Daejan's commentary is that they are typically always negative. However, they do tend to generate a robust underlying performance. The interim results were very strong considering the backdrop.

[retsius] 01/7/2017 17:59

TTTE
E-mail to Company,not in stone but most likely release date.
Property almost all under the cosh at the moment due to uncertainties over Brexit and now interest rate rise risks.Daejan has the American exposure which could be the silver lining in the results, plus valuation way below NAV.Even with a 10% drop in London prices we are still way below true value of assets and we quite a way from that excessive move!( I hope!)
Suggested last year of a 'buy back' of shares (modest one) but fell on deaf ears.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 01/7/2017 16:54

retsius - yes very frustrating. On the plus side I seem to recall that the US assets are more highly leveraged than the UK assets. So that should help with any valuation improvements. On the valuation side any assets that have been sold have been above book value. So the valuation should be conservative.

My end of year NAV estimate is £97. However, if the UK valuations improve we could see over £100 easily. How do you know results are on 12?

[trytotakeiteasy] 26/6/2017 17:26

To put Daejan's frustrating share price in context. The current £64 is below the £65.5 peak hit in December 2006. It is also below the level two years ago in July 2015 of £65.58.

The peak pre downturn NAV was £55.4 in March 2008 and today the NAV stands at £95.81. so the NAV is up 73% from the pre-downturn peak but the share price is lower than its peak level before the downturn.

All very frustrating. Sentiment is clearly very much against Daejan and the whole of the real estate sector.

[sirhedgealot] 26/6/2017 09:25

It's been mentioned that family ownership and a potential tax liability upon sale of the business is some reason for the persistent discount. I bless the day I found this business for its quality's.Imagine if they bought back 10 percent of the stock at every two yearly low. I would turn this company into a mini property Berkshire. It's a no brainer.!

[trytotakeiteasy] 22/6/2017 13:00

retsius. That would push the underlying NAV up around 1.4%. Add it to the other underlying drivers of around 1.8% and you get nearly 3.2%. So if the UK valuations at least hold up the NAV per share should increase to £98.9.

With regard to the share price this continues to be a major disappointment. I am getting the feeling that Daejan is a stock you pick up on a major issue (Brexit vote) or a downturn. Then you sell it after it becomes somewhat less undervalued. Probably following the discount is the best strategy. I am not sure the discount will ever narrow much beyond 30% (currently 33%).

[retsius] 22/6/2017 09:14

Saw yesterday on CNBC ,in the US ,home prices and sale figures of homes was buoyant.
I think it was 5.5% rise in average home valuations for the year to April.
Must have a beneficial affect on Daejan's NAV in the States,2.75% for the last six months would have added £14m from the six month accounts(£621m) and that's before any new acquisitions or exchange gains.
TTTE will have something to add from my BOFPF's lol
R.

[sirhedgealot] 20/6/2017 19:33

Let them trash the price. Lol

[sirhedgealot] 20/6/2017 19:32

I think the dividend must be three percent for an excellent ideal position etc etc

[sirhedgealot] 20/6/2017 12:16

Yeah it is a hassle. Better than no volatility

[retsius] 19/6/2017 18:39

Bounced off the 6200 price and has made a substantial recovery of which I am very pleased. Quite depressing to see the price plummeting week after week for no obvious reason. Confident we can build for the results which should be good.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 16/6/2017 15:59

retsius - strange how these things can suddenly turn. Predicting these things is pretty impossible. Hopefully NAV is above £98 when results are announced in a few weeks.

Interesting to see how CLI Group came out of the doldrums after good results. Hopefully Daejan can do the same.

Was just looking at the volumes. Highest volume since October 2014. High volumes can signal a change in trend. In this instance it could be the case.

[retsius] 16/6/2017 14:59

Tin hats may now be removed. We advise seat belts to be worn though at all times!
R.

[sirhedgealot] 16/6/2017 10:52

I would prefer 6000

[trytotakeiteasy] 15/6/2017 17:03

the worm has turned??? lots of sells but a delayed buy of a lot of shares.

[sirhedgealot] 14/6/2017 14:07

Yes I also think pi's are moving it around a bit.

[trytotakeiteasy] 13/6/2017 19:23

retsius - yes not a great day. NAV £95.81 gives us a discount of 35%. However, when the interims were announced on 23 Nov 2016 the share price was £57.7 putting the stock on a discount of 40%. So investor sentiment improved from November and the discount hit a low of 27% in May.

The discount hit 51% following the Brexit vote with the shares hitting £44.1 versus the March 2016 NAV of £90.82. Looking back and the discount narrowed to almost zero towards the end of 2007.

I guess we are always going to get this yo-yo effect in the discount. The long-term business track record, though, is good with the NAV only £23.5 in March 2000.

What is slightly annoying is that other real estate stocks have rallied since the hung parliament result. Daejan just seems to be massively influenced by nervous private investors given the small volumes.

[retsius] 13/6/2017 18:57

Terrible day for the share price Hardly an ordinary share changing hands from 'trades' but still marked heavily down.
R.

[trytotakeiteasy] 11/6/2017 20:38

not an accountant but it is interesting that other things being equal we would have an NAV of £97.57 at the end of March 2017. An increase of 1.83% due to FX gains on the US assets and ongoing profit due to net rental income.

If we assume the valuation of US assets is unchanged then the only area of weakness are the UK assets at 75% of the portfolio. This means that for the NAV to fall we would need the valuation of UK assets to fall by 2.44% in the six months to March 2017.

This may occur but on balance I am reassured that it appears only an even chance that the overall net asset valuation of Daejan will fall in the six months to March 2017.

[retsius] 11/6/2017 19:45

TTTE
You surely must be an accountant, so detailed are your figures! I am very impressed with your attention to detail.
Looking at the broader picture of property generally I think we may have bottomed for now and hope we get a rise up to results.
The Co.is priced well below its asset value and borrowings are low.Reassuring when trying to get to sleep at night! I think they will try and top £100 in finals.
R.