Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[dov] 12/9/2017 09:46

Let's hope, but i think it will still drop maybe a slightly smaller percentage than others but down she goes anyway

[1gw] 12/9/2017 09:36

Unfortunately Redrow and Berkeley director sales providing a bit of a headwind to the sector, so perhaps at the moment the sentiment is more "what's bad for RDW and BKG must be bad for us"

But maybe we can hope this could be the trigger for a bit of mean reversion - outperformance of CRST relative to other housebuilders who have recently far outperformed CRST.

[pillion] 05/9/2017 23:07

What's good for must be good for us

[1gw] 01/9/2017 10:49

This is looking a bit more encouraging...

[dov] 31/8/2017 10:27

Normal service resumed most builders up about 1% or so,crest big fat diddly squat.

[dov] 31/8/2017 09:36

Pillion reduced my position by 1/3 will look to do more if the current weakness continues vis a vis other house builders

[1gw] 31/8/2017 08:13

Just seems to have been stuck in a range for a bit. I'm hoping if it can break through 540p convincingly we might get a good run higher...

[speedsgh] 30/8/2017 13:19

Some relevant titbits from the Interims...



...As expected, unit completions for the first half of the 2017 financial year at 1,064 (2016: 1,206) are lower than the comparative period in 2016, primarily due to a reduced first half weighting from the timing of PRS completions. Unit completions excluding the impact of PRS were 1,021 (2016: 1,033), broadly in line with last year...

...The change in product and location mix towards higher ASPs results in the business operating at a lower sales rate per outlet. Sales per outlet week, excluding PRS, at 0.81 is 7% behind the rate of 0.87 for the first half of 2016, but is in line with the average rate of 0.81 achieved through the whole of 2016.

At mid-June, forward sales for the 2017 year of £540.4m (2016: £520.8m), were 4% ahead of prior year. Forward sales for the full year 2017 including year to date completions at mid-June 2017 were 6% ahead of the same period last year.

Forward sales have been supported by an increase in outlet numbers which averaged 49 for the first half of 2017 (2016: 44) an increase of 11%. The second half of 2017 will see the new Division in the Midlands established and additional outlets opened across the existing Divisions. The business remains focused on expanding overall outlet numbers and growing unit volumes across the Divisions...

...the Board remains confident that the business is well positioned to continue to deliver a strong operational and financial performance in the medium term to meet the 2019 targets of £1.4bn sales [2016: £1.0bn sales] and 4,000 homes [2016: 2,870 homes].

[adamb1978] 30/8/2017 12:09

The only thing in the interims which I think could have spooked people was the turnover growth which was low (3% from memory), but there was a one-off effect in there which took a huge chunk off the growth so H2 would be double digit yoy again. Thats the only thing I can think of

[timnet] 29/8/2017 17:26

Crest have only been underperforming the other housebuilders exactly from the time of their June 13 Interim announcement. Something from that trading statement has clearly spooked the market. Can anyone point to what was said then that has caused the market to avoid Crest in favour of the others?? Maybe I'm missing something (and so are many analysts: 3 of whom rate Crest a "strong buy"; 1 a "buy" and 3 "neutral"; as is the (currently out of favour - unreasonably in my view) Neil Woodford with his now 5.22%.
Apparently Crest had some difficulties in 2009 - might that be behind this current nervousness? Problems in NRVs (valuations) of their land bank?
Without any sensible explanation, I can't help thinking Crest is undervalued vis-a-vis the others and is due a significant re-rating.

[pillion] 25/8/2017 18:19

Dov
Did you sell some then ?

[dov] 24/8/2017 18:46

Unchanged when all those around are going upward when profit taking comes for all those builders who have made great gains of late these will be duly thumped as well. Will sell some tomorrow as the price will be down no doubt and I have lost patience something does not smell right here.

[dov] 24/8/2017 18:34

Am selling half out tomorrow

[dov] 24/8/2017 12:09

Crest being dragged along by the rise in other builders this am grudgingly from the looks,some up 1.5% or more crest less than 0.5% it does seem there is a lead weight around these going up and yet falling twice as much as others on the way down I am sure we will find out why soon enough. Redrow at new highs today persimmon and TW not far behind even Bovis looks a better bet currently.

[dov] 22/8/2017 17:31

another ridiculous underperformance day for crest when other house builders shares continue to gather pace.
no point commenting again on these again till results or trading statement, dead in the water currently still more likely to see £5 given the current price action than anything substantially higher than we have currently imho hope I am wrong though

[dov] 21/8/2017 16:20

Yes but yet again underperforming the likes of RDW, PSN, TW, BVS in fact almost all.

[1gw] 21/8/2017 15:37

Good to see Woodford adding.

[dov] 16/8/2017 13:10

Adam BI do hope so with these nearly 20% off their highs compared to others which are close to highs they have plenty to catch up with assuming no particular nasties lurking for them or the housing market

[adamb1978] 16/8/2017 12:39

Dov
I think the issue was just the interims, with turnover rising only 3%. Their ave selling price was up 12% but because of an issue with the overall volumes being skewed by PRS vols the year before, turnover only grew 3%. H2 should get them back in-line.

They're trading on a calendarised OE of about 7.5x which is just stupid.

Adam

[dov] 14/8/2017 11:06

Again underperforming virtually all housebiilders this will do well to stay positive today Clearly I believe there are some in the know about some issue at crest which is causing this complete underperformance dropping more than others when house builders go down and barely rising when they rebound I guess we will find out one morning why, when the bad news announcement is made

[dov] 12/8/2017 18:50

Felt like selling out for a long while still got a feeling these are going sub £5 regardless of what other builders do they are just so out of favour

[salpara111] 12/8/2017 15:31

Difficult to understand Crest underperformance vs all the other big house builders.
Berkeley are most exposed to the rapidly cooling premium London market but their share price is near an all time high.
Not sure if I should add to my holding or sell it out completely.

[1gw] 10/8/2017 16:28

Yes, relative underperformance of CRST against my 2 other housebuilder holdings, TEF and (especially) BKG since say June 8th is very marked.

I have sold down my BKG holdings over the last month or so and am hoping for some mean reversion in Crest's relative position now.

[dov] 07/8/2017 08:24

Only a small rebound this morning given the fall on Friday wouldn't surprise me these will finish down again today. Not sure why these are so unloved compared to other builders