Crest Nicholson Share Discussion Threads

[dov] 16/3/2018 15:21

dont know anything about shady dealings but i do know for some reason this share is currently a basket case without ever giving a profit warning just reasonably positive outlooks and statements so one cant even say i should have sold after the first warning.
it has just drifted back 30% from its highs without any real bad news so heaven help us if that does occur.

[wilkie_hk] 16/3/2018 14:42

Hopefully, this doesn't appear a completely naïve question but are there shady mechanisms within the city by which a share price can be held back as a prelude to a takeover bid. At the beginning of the year I thought there was every possibility that we would see £6+ this year and any takeover would require an offer of around £7 per share. However, we are where we are at the moment and the share price underperformance this year now conditions one to feeling that a £5.50 offer would be attractive. I'm sure the directors would do very nicely out of any take over deal as would their buddies at Price Waterhouse/Deliotte. Thoughts?

[1gw] 16/3/2018 13:36

Well Crest has been very good to me over the last few years so I am prepared to go in deeper at this point.

As far as I can see, today's weakness is largely due to BKG's statement and in particular the fact that they were explicit about the fall in profits expected going from their FY18 to FY19 (i.e. 60% of the 2 year target to be delivered in the first year). I don't follow BKG so closely, but I thought they had been signalling retrenchment for some time and that was partly what was behind their capital return programme.

Crest's statement in their prelims published on 24th January was:
"Our analysis of the five-year prospects for the sector is very encouraging. The business continues to grow in volume and earnings as we expand our operations. Land continues to be in good supply, while interest rates seem likely to remain favourable for some time."

So I do intend to go to next week's AGM and I shall be looking for whatever colour I can get around current and forecast performance.

[dov] 16/3/2018 12:58

Brave man hope you are duly rewarded hopefully if nothing else short term bounce but continued long term decline something does change.

[dov] 16/3/2018 12:42

Think those who were in it for the dividend exited yesterday this is just normal service being resumed

[1gw] 16/3/2018 12:22

I've bought some more, funded by selling some Telford Homes.

[dov] 16/3/2018 10:28

1gw as luck would have work does not allow for next week to do so , perhaps someone else will put it out there

[mortimer7] 16/3/2018 10:18

Dip today maybe driven by divi hunters exiting.

[1gw] 16/3/2018 10:14

Maybe worth coming along to next week's AGM then Dov and asking management directly?

[wilkie_hk] 16/3/2018 09:19

The most hammered of all the housebuilders this morning, again. If you'd got your dates mixed up you could have been fooled into thinking that today was ex divi day. As previously mentioned, surely the big boys in the game will be looking at CRST. They have the landbank and even if prices are settling back more in the South East, a standard size house in that area will still sell for more than elsewhere in the country. Demand wise; this country has been absolutely flooded with people in the last 15 years with house provision lagging well behind. Affordability; surely housebuilders can pitch in with their own help to buy schemes to maintain sales, when necessary. I do try to take the long term view on share prices, however, the performance this year is very trying. If I could identify a serious fundamental problem, beyond SE house prices being more likely to show a greater decline, I would be out of these. However, as no one so far has identified the 'other' issue, I shall be holding on waiting for those in the city to finish playing their game.

[ygor705] 15/3/2018 09:22

xd a 21.8p dividend today. Price more or less unchanged taking that into consideration.

[gbh2] 12/3/2018 11:39

I admit this isn't the most creative thread on advfn Pill - But it'll do until I find a better company to invest in :)

[pillion] 12/3/2018 11:07

gbh2
Perhaps if you or the Dov start a new CRST thread it might throw better light and improve our SP

...just an idea

[1gw] 08/3/2018 15:22

Depressing set of director sales following vesting, although it doesn't seem to be holding down the share price.

[gbh2] 08/3/2018 10:28

Any attempt at a share price increase being sold into, simpler price action as TW !

[dov] 07/3/2018 11:01

the early price action again compared to the rest would pretty much indicate that !!

[gbh2] 07/3/2018 10:58

IMO IF this fails to attract significant buying interest in the run up to next weeks ex dividend date the share price is pretty much screwed !

[wilkie_hk] 06/3/2018 18:41

I would guess that crest may be little more vulnerable to a downturn that has in the past rippled out from London. I do note that in their agm statement of 23rd March 2017 they stated that they were investing in land in the midlands and it would seem beneficial for them to focus on improving the geographical spread. However, the current earnings ratio would indicate that the share price is factoring flat or gently declining top line over the next 5 years. I am concerned that there may be something else going on here as degree of the sustained underperformance of the share price relative ro it's peers just doesn't seem to have any basis otherwise. There is another agm statement pending for the end of the month which may be interesting.

[timnet] 06/3/2018 17:51

Just to answer my own question about average selling prices (and recent increases). A quick trawl through google suggests (but please correct me as you will - as these relate to differing, although recent, periods):

Berkeley Group £719,000 +9.7%
Crest Nicholson £391,000 +5.4%
Bovis Homes £334,000 +9.0%
Redrow £330,000 +9.0%
Barratt Devs £281,000 +6.5%
Taylor Wimpey £253,000 +6.3%
Persimmon £213,000 +4.0%

Average UK selling price £288,000.

So please tell me what that indicates about our underperformance - if anything.

[dov] 06/3/2018 17:29

sorry just had to reiterate the point, yesterdays underperformance on the way up followed by todays 0.7% fall further underperformance compared to its peers

PSN +0.6%
BVS +1.9
RDW +0.6%
TW +0.1

Just for balance Barrat -0.4%

more than meets the eye as has been suggested I believe on this.

[timnet] 06/3/2018 09:48

Thanks, Wilkie for these stats. I take it from these that 50 out of 88 are London commuter belt - which may partly explain our underperformance. Does anyone have the stats relative to other housebuilders of average selling prices? My guess is that Crest's average is markedly higher than others because of their location.

[gbh2] 06/3/2018 08:25

TW. has an equally bad share price performance, imo their shares are no longer worth holding between dividend dates & atm CRST is beginning to look the same way!

[dov] 05/3/2018 18:06

get on with it please, today the impressive crest managed a whole 0.5% up compared to

BVS 4.5%
REDROW 1.9%
PSN 2.24%
Barrat 1.31%
BGK 0.61%

another sparkling underperformance on a relative good day for the builders.