Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[investali] 16/8/2013 17:28

Trust me! My wise head said buy some back as we climbed but as i guessed get in from work to find another bad decision.

This time i will hold and not sell until ten new pennies.

Ali.

[shrout] 16/8/2013 17:24

I wonder if it will retrace back to fill the gap it left on the way up (6.25 to 6.5p). They do say gaps always get filled sooner or later. On the positive side there's also a gap between 14.5p and 15.5p which was left on the way down, so here's hoping. Either way, I'm not selling.

[battlebus2] 16/8/2013 16:43

Montyhedge i believe your getting way too excited :)) Bit of a healthy retrace today on little volume.

[montyhedge] 15/8/2013 08:22

Volume increasing daily, something going on, their store in Westfield is next to Sainsbury's you never know boys 25p will do me.

[knigel] 15/8/2013 08:19

Great re-rating but i will be out if the shares hit 10p gla

[chrisis33] 15/8/2013 08:17

Someone is certainly snapping the shares up ...

[montyhedge] 15/8/2013 08:13

Like I said, still under radar, should be 17p -18p, 10p very shortly looks a given.
No debt, growing dividend. I really think someone going to snap these up.

[battlebus2] 15/8/2013 08:06

Decent buying this morning :))

[chrisis33] 14/8/2013 19:55

Thinking on BBQ meat sales, consumers are looking for lots of quality meat at a great price. Crawshaws perfectly placed to capitalise one would think.




"ninety per cent of Britons reported having a barbecue this summer. Sales of the grills have doubled and charcoal sales also board, having gone up by 176 per cent. Over half of those who go to a barbecue admit that we eat more that we do at other meals. With half going back for seconds and more than a fifth having thirds ...

... Although it is the classic social setting for a summertime gathering, the classic British barbie was also revealed to be a wasteful way of feeding friends.

Of those polled by the survey, 55 per cent of people say they end up throwing away food at the end of the meal because they have cooked too much."

[battlebus2] 14/8/2013 18:35

Great to see the good times returning here, playful you must be happy :))

[montyhedge] 14/8/2013 18:05

Still under the radar, slowly getting noticed I think 10p short term is a given.

[chrisis33] 14/8/2013 10:13

Pleasing start to the day

[montyhedge] 14/8/2013 08:22

Target of 18p getting closer, no debt, growing dividend, I feel this will be a takeover target.

[battlebus2] 14/8/2013 08:02

Yep Chrisis33 your spot on :))

[chrisis33] 13/8/2013 17:38

Trade after the bell at 6.75p. Should be in profit tomorrow Battlebus :-)

[battlebus2] 13/8/2013 17:27

Ticked up at the bell making history for me at the same time!!! It's breakeven for me, never doubted Crawshaws for one minute :))

[chrisis33] 13/8/2013 10:53

sell 300K at 6.25 - difficult to buy at 6.5p

[battlebus2] 13/8/2013 08:13

Yes good summary Chrisis33. That first buy of mine seems a long time ago but with trading returning to those levels I see no reason the share price can't get back to that level also. No stock available to buy online.

[montyhedge] 13/8/2013 08:06

Good article, 18p would be nice.

[chrisis33] 13/8/2013 07:53

So where are we headed? A few thoughts ...

According to its admission doc, CRAW achieved profit before tax of over £1m per annum. In 2011, EBITDA was over £1m. A now dividend paying CRAW, has turned a £900k net debt position to net cash through operational cashflow over the past 3 years whilst investing in a new Derby.

It has a growing net asset value around 4.5p to 5p per share at the last results ... and a forward dividend yield of .25p per share. But the opportunity is earnings growth ...

ISIS partners converted their loan notes at 17p per share, so presumably saw good value at that price. Battlebus (I believe) bought a first tranche at 13p and the previous non-exec director around 9p.

A few factors decimated the share price over the last couple of years. Pasty tax fears, Schroders selling which has now clearly stopped, and poor results in q3 2011. That's 2 years ago, and trends in LFL sales have been positive since. Recent trading statements were very positive too. I'm very excited about where the business and shareprice could be headed ...

On fundamentals, a 5% increase in full year turnover adds nearly £1m to revenues, around £420K to the bottom line at current margins if 43.7%. Yet we heard in the outlook statement that margins are improved. Those projections assume central admin costs are stable (the same outlook statement highlights improving costs too). Such a performance would take full year profit before tax up to around £0.7m.

A 10% revenue increase ought to take pre-tax profit over £1m and EBITDA close to £1.5m. That's 1 extra person through the door for every 10 customers served. Or average spend up by 5% and footfall up by 5%. I'm not saying it'll happen - just illustrating how on good margins and high turnover, a small % trading improvement can make a huge difference to the bottom line.

Apply an sector average PE of 12 on £800k earnings, and we're looking at the share price around 17-18p. If the market starts to factor in further growth to the store footprint then we start to look at a higher share price still.

That kind of money could see CRAW open a new store every six months and deliver substantial dividend growth, all from positive cashflow.

The horsemeat scandal and excellent BBQ weather and improving high street footfall should all be boosting sales. Last summer was a total washout, the wettest for decades. So it'll be interesting to see how results compare.

A fair bit of hypothesising on my part in this post ... but all within reason IMO. With results due in a few weeks we should get a good sense of how things are progressing. DYOR.

[chrisis33] 12/8/2013 12:38

Still significant demand out there. Can sell 300K at 6p. No quote for more than 100 shares. Tick up, plenty more to come IMO.

[montyhedge] 11/8/2013 07:45

Beginning to get noticed, this share as been under the radar.

[chrisis33] 10/8/2013 07:43

Missed this from earlier in the week:



Eyes were on the AIM market because yesterday was the first time ever that investors were allowed to hold individual AIM shares in ISAs. The major attraction about holding qualifying AIM shares in an ISA is the triple tax break: no income tax, no capital gains tax and no inheritance tax – and next year stamp duty will also be removed. Rotherham-based butcher Crawshaw attracted buyers and closed 0.88p or 20.59 per cent better at a 52-week high of 5.12p. It is now making a profit and has been trading strongly during the current heatwave. Its meats have been grilled on family barbecues throughout Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire and Humberside.

[battlebus2] 09/8/2013 16:44

Yes bodes well for the next few days until results and with little or no volume.

[chrisis33] 09/8/2013 16:23

No shares available at 6p ... paying over again