Crawshaw Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 12/10/2013 13:11

chrisis33....How many stocks are you hoping to hold long term ? In the main I invest in small caps and the vast majority (prob 90%) of my equity investments are in sub FTSE350 companies. I find new ideas almost every week and unfortunately so do other investors who I highly respect.

Inevitably I then find it difficult not to slice stocks where they are long term holds but possibly a little overpriced compared to the stocks coming on the radar. If you add a one to your 14 then you would still be seven short of my spread of holdings.

That is not necessarily the way to go...but I do sleep well at night as no individual holding or sector is going to hurt me if bad news comes from nowhere. It adds to the fun too. I just love looking at companies and meeting some great management teams and making friends with some very genuinely good fellow investors.

Anyway on the same theme please keep Monday 18th November pencilled in your diaries as I am hoping to arrange a nice surprise for you all.

[chrisis33] 11/10/2013 22:00

Definitely been a good year, and there's much to look forward to as we roll towards full year figures. Mustn't forget that 8 weeks trading at 10% up in LFL sales, plus no pasty tax disruption and growth via new store openings on the horizon.

I'm tempted to add some back :)

On a folio front, CRAW now about 25%, with healthy holdings in STY and ACM. Also picked up a range of other shares in the construction, tech and biotech space. Now holding around 14 stocks.

[battlebus2] 11/10/2013 18:08

Yes have a great weekend chrisis33 et al.

[chrisis33] 11/10/2013 17:56

Yes, good to see a sizeable buy through. Hoping to see some upward traction next week now with markets in general looking healthier just now.

Happy weekends all.

[battlebus2] 11/10/2013 17:36

Thanks Brian, looks like a nice 100k buy this afternoon.

[briangeeee] 11/10/2013 01:27

Shanklin, it's been an unusual year, with the horse meat scandal, and a hot summer with good BBQ weather. So, I wouldn't pay too much attention to historic H1/H2 comparators - I really have little idea, other than the positive outlook in the recent interims.

There hasn't been a full updated Note recently, but they issued a brief Morning Note on the day of the interims. 2014(E) Rev £19.5m, PTP £0.5m, EPS 0.6p, DPS 0.3p.

In recent history, forecasts have been conservative, but that analyst no longer covers the company, and John Cummins is the new guy.

"We have raised our FY 2014E earnings expectation by 17.3% to 0.6p, driven by a 300bps increase in our LFL assumption to 5% and a 10bps improvement in the gross margin to 43.9%. Given the positive outlook, in combination with the recovery potential within the business, we raise our share price target to 10p based on 14x FY 2015E earnings,"

[battlebus2] 10/10/2013 21:06

Thanks chrisis33.

[chrisis33] 10/10/2013 20:56

And of course the target price is 10p based on those forecasts ... should be higher. I've sliced of course so possibly I'm a cause of the recent weakness. But I can see no reason why this shouldn't continue higher. Markets flying in the US.

[chrisis33] 10/10/2013 19:53

Check out digital look. New forecasts there. I haven't seen a broker note though. Pretty confident CRAW must exceed the 19.5m guidance revenue for the current year given the 2 very strong months at the start of h2.

[battlebus2] 10/10/2013 17:31

Is there a new broker note out? Thanks for the reminder playful i need to order one for my daughter, Christmas again! and another year older :))

[chrisis33] 10/10/2013 17:29

I think with 10% increase in LFLs over the first 8 weeks, and no pasty tax disruption this year, those FY estimates have been exceeded already. Last year was also very positive for the first 8 weeks of h2, so starting from a position of strength.

[shanklin] 10/10/2013 12:51

Can anybody make sense of the broker estimates here?

The PBT forecasts seem very conservative in the context of the H1 results, with the FY forecast of £0.5m PBT assuming a small H2 improvement compared with last year. Is it normally the case that the results are H1 weighted?????

Then, even if I accept the 0.5m PBT, and minimise it so that its £451k, I am finding it impossible to translate £451k PBT, into an EPS of 0.5p. With a tax rate of 25%, it looks like EPS has to be at least 0.6p.

Are these forecasts just complete drivel? Suggestions welcome.

Cheers, Martin

[playful] 07/10/2013 23:32

I see we have started promoting our Christmas hampers – I'm sure we can arrange to have one couriered down to you BB2 if you'd like one.

[battlebus2] 04/10/2013 07:51

over £22k worth so a large sum.

[playful] 04/10/2013 07:49

Perhaps a CFD Buy?

[battlebus2] 04/10/2013 07:30

280k traded at 7.915 late reported.

[chrisis33] 03/10/2013 19:27

Big volume for Craw today compared to most Craw trading days. Interesting. Very tight spread at 7.89 v 7.93p

[chrisis33] 03/10/2013 08:35

... suggesting demand in the market?

[chrisis33] 03/10/2013 08:34

Sells certainly being gobbled up ...

[battlebus2] 03/10/2013 08:27

LOL, too many throughout my lifetime.

[cockneyrebel] 03/10/2013 08:25

Nice to see you're a 'steak-holder' here Battlebus :-)

CR

[battlebus2] 02/10/2013 17:04

Held up very well today, not even a tick down on that x dividend.

[chrisis33] 02/10/2013 08:18

The trend towards town / city centre living is one that's positive for CRAW. Trouble with the city centre for supermarkets is that they're undercut by local markets and independents like Crawshaws.