Corcel Share Discussion Threads

[kemche] 07/5/2021 15:26

Align wrote a cracking "research piece" on AERO I recall which ended really well.

[hedgehog 100] 07/5/2021 15:23

From Align's 21st. January 2021 research note on Corcel:

"Corcel’s FGS Pipeline

Already, the company has a pipeline of energy production and storage projects in development or under review for sanction that include gas peaker plants (natural gas burning power plants which only run when there is high demand for electricity), flexible energy storage, combined heat & power systems and solar projects.

Such energy storage projects can provide electricity potentially to something like thirty markets. Options including power arbitrage where the batteries are filled up at 6am when power is free and then some two and a half hours later the power is sold for £120 per MW when people are up and about and demand is higher.

It is more than likely that Burwell will provide a blueprint for further deals in the sector with the company having the ability to take available opportunities, with some going into electricity generation and others being monetised. With the target of developing 4-5 such FGS projects a year, it is clear that this rapidly growing division is set to create a growing stream of longterm reliable earnings which can be used to fuel the company’s battery metal ambitions. Moving ahead, this means that at Corcel, investors will not have the normal concerns about small cap exploration plays with their regular fund-raising exercises that cause significant dilution and poisoned relationships with long term shareholders."

[kemche] 07/5/2021 15:19

Can there be an "imminent delay"?

[kemche] 07/5/2021 15:18

Align wrote a cracking "research piece" on AERO I recall which ended really well.

[hedgehog 100] 07/5/2021 15:16

And this article the day before suggests that even Align's new target could be conservative:

"MAST IPO valuation disconnect reveals hidden value in Corcel (LON: CRCL)

By Alan Green in News and Views on 13th April 2021.

... Valuations per MW for MAST range from £3.6 million (5MW) to £0.9 million (20MW). Even taking the lowest figure and discounting it by 50%, to remain conservative, the Burwell project alone looks to be worth well over £40m to Corcel’s valuation.

Corcel raised £300k in February and at the same time put in place a debt facility, so appears to have no imminent cash requirement. With 321,381,614 shares in issue, if Corcel were valued in the same way as MAST, based on the most conservative estimate for MAST having control of 20MW of flexible assets, Corcel would immediately be valued at 18p. The math for a comparative valuation assuming MAST has only really secured its initial 5MW, Bordesley project, (and with the rest considered ‘pipeline projects’) isn’t hard to do, and would push Corcel’s valuation into the triple digits and the share price north of 60p.

And to remind again, this valuation analysis for Corcel does not take into account any allocation for the Mambare or Wowo Gap nickel / cobalt assets. Valuation disconnect perhaps? Likely not for long!"

[kemche] 07/5/2021 15:14

Align? You mean Andrex?

[kemche] 07/5/2021 15:13

Allen? You mean Richie?
Righty ho.

Wobble.

[mark10101] 07/5/2021 15:11

Wow the wibble thread is really wibbling today. Wibble wibble. Still up 60% when you were wibbling in February. Wibble wibble.

[hedgehog 100] 07/5/2021 15:09

Dennis,

I think you mean Align - Align Research.

Who on 14th. April more than quadrupled their share price target for CRCL:

"CORCEL – TODAY’S MAST IPO HIGHLIGHTS VALUATION DISJOINT WITH CORCEL. REVISION OF PRICE TARGET TO 12.91P. BUY.

... Sum-of-the-parts valuation. Source: Align Research

Our SOTP valuation totalled £52.41 million. Based on the number of shares currently in issue (321,381,614) the per share valuation would come out at 16.31p. On a fully diluted basis, we have adjusted the number of shares by ignoring the warrants that are well under water as they are exercisable at 25p and 60p. This leaves a total of 423,344,819. Adding the funds that would result from the options being exercised of £2.24 million gives a total of £54.65 million, which equates to 12.91p. We have chosen to use this as our new target price – more than four times our previous target price of 3.19p.

We are more than happy to reconfirm our Conviction Buy stance for Corcel, with a new target price of 12.91p. ..."

[dennisbergkamp] 07/5/2021 14:54

Mindful of the hidden agenda of those that have sold out...

What was the validation given recently by Allen?

D

[kemche] 07/5/2021 14:28

Reminds me of AERO which went up a 1000 fold from 9p to 0.1p.

[kemche] 07/5/2021 14:27

"Quick look at their recent accounts, are they not going to be needing money very soon?"

Good question to which the following may prove useful:

This only in the last 15 months:

December 2019 - £830,000 placing
April 2020 - £470,000 placing
June 2020 - £220,000 placing
October 2020 - £750,000 placing
February 2021 - £300,000 placing

And therefore one has to ask:

6 monthly "Admin costs" £493k.
Loss for the six months £526k
Cash at bank at 31 dec 2020 £180k.
Cash raised so far - squillions.


Net cash flows from operations (outflow) £536,000
Divided by six is circa £90k a month cash burn rate.

Please ignore the known liar rmart.

WTF! Where is the money?????

Can anyone tell me what comes next?

[kemche] 07/5/2021 14:06

4) Is Southort shovel ready?
5)WTF has happened to ALL the money?
7)When is the next fundraising?
etc

[hedgehog 100] 07/5/2021 13:40

I see that the multi-handled crook Helpfull has been posting more of his nonsense!
The questions that are actually asked is: what are his former user names, and what are his disastrous investment calls that he is hiding?

He's already cost people who have been influenced by his CRCL bashing advice since last summer a fortune.

The latest CRCL update didn't raise any questions for me, but here are a few answers for those who need a little 'hand-holding' ... or 'leg-smacking' in Helpfull's case!

1. Why defer the grid connection payment by 6 months to December 2021, if the extra time isn't expected to be needed?

Well, you could just as well ask why someone takes out life insurance if they're not expecting to die soon.
It's a precautionary measure, and shows how prudent and professional CRCL's management is.

2. Why do they need more time to complete the Burwell planning application process, when planning permission was granted in September?

Because there's a difference between outline planning consent and detailed planning consent.
The former was the major planning hurdle in this case, and the large planning value increase because it granted change of use.
With this achieved, detailed consent in some form can't be refused, just being subject to negotiation with the planning authorities re. details such as design, layout, and access etc.

3. Landowner agreement?

They've agreed the lease with the existing owner because it's an attractive inducement to the buyer to have a good, revenue-generating lease available to start immediately, and therefore aids the sale process and price.
Agreeing commercial lease heads of terms was the major hurdle to be crossed, and has been done.

[kemche] 07/5/2021 13:16

:)

But Duncan Bannatyne!

George Soros!

[helpfull] 07/5/2021 13:03

What if Corcel wanted to build the battery storage at Burwell instead of offloading at the "shovel ready" stage? How much would it cost?

The annual results of SMS inform shareholders that "a build cost of c.£380,000 per MW" is the norm. For a 50MW project that would be 50 x £380,000 or £19,000,000. But what do they know? Be careful.

[hedgehog 100] 07/5/2021 13:01

Supply and demand dictates prices, so these multiple competing funds in this sector, with money that they have to invest, is clearly a key influence on value.

As is the relative scarcity of assets for them to invest in.

This helps to explain how Duncan Bannatyne was able to get such a good price for his QCH and JC businesses.

"In my twenties, I moved to Jersey, where I met my first wife, and then to Stockton-on-Tees in the North East. It was there that my business career began, with an ice cream van bought for £450; I soon expanded by buying more vans and eventually sold the business for £28,000, founding a care home business instead. Quality Care Homes was sold for £26 million in 1996 and another business, children's nursery chain Just Learning, for £22 million."

[mark10101] 07/5/2021 10:18

Peter you obviously have not riden many multi-baggers, this recent volatility is what I like to see before the main moves come.


I am with Vipassanatrades on interpreting this weeks news. This is just shaking out those with little convictions, the wibble thread is loving this pull back, they will go quiet as we move on taking out new highs.

[kemche] 07/5/2021 09:37

In the meantime can we please have another fundraising?

[kemche] 07/5/2021 09:36

I think the real comparators are Tesla/Amazon/Google. Failing that then some other random parabolic charts.

I am taking my winnings here and sticking them in RRR, RMS and CZN.

[helpfull] 07/5/2021 09:18

The idea of comparing Corcel's Burwell operation to MAST is farcical. If everything goes to the current plan (and can that now be trusted) Burwell might be shovel ready by the end of 2021. Shovel ready? How basic is that? What might someone pay for 50MW that is shovel ready? Look no further than SMS who paid £1,375,882 for East Anglia Grid Storage One Limited and its subsidiary, Burwell Power Limited (together, 'Burwell') according to their full year accounts. That's 50MW for.£1,375,882. That's the true worth of Burwell to Corcel by the end of the year if they are lucky. Costs and expenses would need to be deducted from that figure. Be careful.